Adnan DEMİR
@adnancanidir
Translated from Turkish
“Come to my parlor,” said the spider to the fly.ARE THERE OR WILL THERE BE NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN THE US AND IRAN?06.04.2026 Alastair CrookeThe short answer is “no.” Trump was lying when he said he was already negotiating with “important” Iranians.The U.S.’s “negotiation rhetoric” has a backstory. In previous rounds of “negotiations” focused on the Ukraine conflict, Trump regularly implied that political negotiations with Russia were ongoing; whereas in reality, Witkoff and Kushner were conducting a series of endless meetings with Europeans about securing a ceasefire and the role of the so-called European-led “peace force” that the Europeans were demanding. In fact, these “peace plans” were never shared with or shown to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.At that time, a prolonged “ceasefire” was seen by the White House as a side strategy to attempt to resolve the deep-seated security architecture issues between NATO and Russia’s sphere of security interests. Russia simply said “no” to Trump’s initiative to “postpone security architecture.”The same tendency to conceal was clearly evident in the Gaza ceasefire talks: Ceasefire proposals were presented without any details on what might happen in Phase Two.Last weekend, Witkoff and Kushner—this time in Iran—drew up their wish list for yet another ceasefire; a series of issues were also put on the table for later consideration. Same story. Same fabrication. The fifteen-point peace plan prepared by Witkoff and Kushner was presented to the mediators—demands Trump described as “very good and productive talks aimed at the full and definitive resolution of hostilities”—and Iran “desperately wanted a deal.”Iran, despite Trump’s regret, said “absolutely not” to the offer: Iranian military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari said, “Our first and last word has been the same since day one, and it will remain so.”Iran is not currently interested in a compromise because it has not yet achieved its (bold) strategic goal of upending the long-standing U.S.-Israeli military and financial dominance in the Gulf region and turning it into a broad Iranian economic and military sphere of interest (or “hemisphere,” if you will).In any case, Iran holds the advantage in escalating tensions in this conflict, thanks to decades of preparation and planning. Iran has already proven that it controls twenty percent of the world’s globally exported oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, it has the tools needed to manage the volume of exported oil (regulating the passage of ships through the waterway) and, equally importantly, the ability to influence globally sensitive pricing (a prerequisite once held only by the U.S.).Iran not only keeps a single critical component of the global economy (oil) under its control but also effectively controls much of the world’s supply lines and commodity production: Helium, fertilizer, food, and sulfuric acid are all, to some degree, dependent on Hormuz, and a closure of the strait for more than three weeks would lead to a paralyzing shortage that is unlikely to disappear quickly.In addition to manipulating the oil economy lever, Iran’s conditioning of ships passing through the Strait to both pay a high fee and prove that their cargo was purchased in yuan strikes at the heart of Trump’s political vulnerability ahead of the U.S. Midterm Elections—namely, the U.S. economy.A regional report issues the following warning:“Iran has a permanent plan to establish checkpoints in the Strait of Hormuz to compensate for its losses. If the attacks threatened by Trump materialize, Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz, cut off Red Sea routes, and the Yemen front will also move to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Iran is also prepared to retake Bahraini ports if the situation requires it.”Trump once said that losing dollar hegemony would be worse for America than losing a major war. Yet this is precisely what is at stake in the “game of chicken” Trump started with Iran, a game he now doesn’t know how to exit without a humiliating defeat.Anna Barsky, the chief political correspondent for the Hebrew-language Ma’ariv newspaper, wrote “Washington in shock” in response to the Wall Street Journal’s summary of the counter-demands list conveyed by Iranian representatives to the Trump team via mediators as a precondition for a deal:“White House officials described these demands as ‘a wish list with no connection to the realities on the ground.’”Given Iran’s economic leverage and its readiness to respond to the escalation of Israel-U.S. bombardment with its own retaliatory missile strikes on Gulf states’ infrastructure, it seems inherently unlikely that Trump will find a reasonable way out of the war—since on this issue “Israel has a say,” and Israel has now shifted from hoping for “regime change” to an insistent stance on the U.S. seizing Iran’s Kharg Island in the Hormuz.Prominent Israeli commentators (Ronen Bergman and Anna Barsky) write that Israel has acknowledged the failure of its hoped-for regime change goal in Iran. Therefore, it is redefining its objectives—Barsky writes, “Jerusalem [now believes that] the path to [Israel’s] victory runs through control of Kharg Island.”“According to this logic, if the [U.S.-Israel] campaign does not lead to the overthrow of the regime, a much more concrete step will need to be taken—one that deprives Iran of both the ability to export oil on a normal scale and the capacity to effectively threaten maritime traffic.”“This debate leads to another conclusion: Without a physical presence at a key point, it is very difficult to prevent Iran from returning to the same cycle again and again… To change the reality, actual control must be established. In this context, Kharg stands out as a target that, if seized, could deprive Iran of both its strategic revenue and freedom of maneuver.”However, Barsky notes, “Nevertheless, the main challenge is not expected to be on the operational side… The difficulty lies in Washington”:“The real issue is not whether the U.S. can reach Kharg and seize the island. The real issue is whether Trump is willing to maintain a force there for an extended period despite the possibility of casualties among American troops.”Former CIA agent Larry Johnson writes that U.S. intervention in Hormuz will likely happen very soon and will end in disaster (i.e., the loss of many American lives):“Unless Donald Trump changes his mind, we will see the U.S. attempt to seize both Kharg and Qeshm islands. If you read my earlier piece (here), you’ll see that Trump is expected to use both Delta Force and Seal Team 6, along with two Ranger battalions and the 1st Brigade Combat Team of the 82nd Airborne Division to take the islands.”“The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) will be deployed in the Arabian Sea on Friday… [Now] I’ve learned… Trump canceled his speech at CPAC this weekend and won’t attend the fundraising event at Mar-a-Lago on Friday evening…”.Larry Johnson speculates, “It looks like [Trump] will be busy with other matters starting Friday.”“And what then? These forces will become easy targets and face the risk of being cut off from supply sources. If Iran unleashes a barrage of mines, the only option will be air resupply, which will likely mean those aircraft face intense fire from Iran’s coastal batteries and air defense systems. Rather than opening the Strait of Hormuz, the anticipated U.S. military operation will make it nearly impossible for any ship to enter or exit the Persian Gulf. A complete closure of the Hormuz Strait will further increase the economic damage to the world economy.”Iranian Admiral Ali Akbar Ahmadian reacted to the threat of American troop deployment in Hormuz as follows:“We’ve been expecting [an American occupation] for years. Now we have a single message for American troops: Come closer.”“Come to my parlor,” said the spider to the fly.