Mohammad Ali Shabani
@mashabani
Excellent read by
@HamidRezaAz
on how Iran is doing away with the cautious, reactive, and entirely predictable approach favored by Ali Khamenei. "A concept described as 'preemptive destruction' is emerging, involving continuous targeting of US bases, logistics hubs and staging areas in countries such as Bahrain and Kuwait to disrupt any potential ground or heliborne operation before it can be executed.This builds on the earlier shift toward 'active preemption' and reflects a more offensive posture aimed at suppressing US force buildup at its source rather than responding after an operation."
View: https://x.com/mashabani/status/2038987029355155522
I'd call it near blind lashing out in hopes of revenge. It's the sort of crap Germany was doing by late 1944.
The German leadership knew the war was lost but refused to surrender. So, they tried whatever they could to hang on in hopes of some miracle or another happening. It's the sort of stuff Ukraine is doing. Ukraine can't secure an outright win so the best they can do is simply inflict what casualties they can on their enemy.
Iran is doing the same thing. They launch a drone or ballistic missile strike on some target in the Middle East. The selection is almost random. Getting a hit on an oil refinery is as good as blowing up a US airplane, is as good as landing a missile in some Israeli neighborhood.
Iran is flailing almost blindly back at their attackers. The threat that the Strait of Hormuz is closed is more one in propaganda than reality. The Iranians have lost nearly all ability to mine the strait, and every day more small craft are destroyed reducing their ability further. They no longer have a navy or air force to speak of.
Sure, like Germany with the V-1 or V-2 they can fire off a few drones or ballistic missiles, hoping the launchers don't get wiped out in the process. Their biggest ally today is really the Trump hating Western media that is going to bat for them in the propaganda war.
If the US wants to take Karig Island for example, the Iranians are pretty much helpless to stop them. If the US were to run coastal raids, or at this point even inland ones, the Iranians really have nothing to counter them with. Sure, whatever local forces are present can fight back halfassed, but the US doesn't have to stay on the ground. They can smash a facility then withdraw. Iran can't rebuild it, at least not in the short term or within the framework of the current war.
What the Western media isn't seeing is the destruction in Iran. The only time Iran will let that happen is if a strike goes wrong like hitting that girl's school in a targeting error. By tightly controlling the narrative within Iran, the Iranian leadership hopes the Western media will cause sufficient backlash against Trump to stop the ass beating they're getting.
