I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th

IBDaMann said:
Many, many people. Is this even a serious question? Didn't you ever get the memo that the DJIA is a huge market index?
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It is a popular market index, among people who do not understand much about the markets. No one serious uses it.

It mostly acts as a shibboleth to see who has real knowledge about the stock market.
 
Walt said:
It is a popular market index, among people who do not understand much about the markets. No one serious uses it.
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Did you just say "No one"?

Walt said:
It mostly acts as a shibboleth to see who has real knowledge about the stock market.
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Perpahs you can see the problem here. This very thread documents how you don't have any real knowledge about the stock market, no offense, and you trade per the S&P 500.
 
IBDaMann said:
Did you just say "No one"?
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That is an incomplete quote. I said "no one serious." You clearly use it, but I do not take you seriously.

Anyone comes to you with financial advice, and uses the DJIA, that is a huge red flag. They clearly are not serious.

IBDaMann said:
Perpahs you can see the problem here. This very thread documents how you don't have any real knowledge about the stock market, no offense, and you trade per the S&P 500.
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Perhaps you see it as that. I see it as a thread I explore my ideas for investments, and invite others to make suggestions. I created the thread, so I guess my view on what the thread is for is right.

You think one trade going badly proves someone has no real knowledge about the stock market? A professional trader will always have trades going bad. A great trader will have hedge investments losing money all day long.

Now I did not lose on a hedge investment, but even great traders lose money on a percent of their trades. Worth noting I am far from a great trader, but I have made some real money on this. I clearly know more than you.
 
Walt said:
That is an incomplete quote. I said "no one serious." You clearly use it, but I do not take you seriously.
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I don't use DJIA; I use other market information and economics principles.

DJIA trading volume is ~700 million shares. I believe about 50% of that trading volume is among serious investors. You insist that 0% of the trading volume is among serious investors.

Walt said:
Anyone comes to you with financial advice, and uses the DJIA, that is a huge red flag.
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Anyone coming to me with financial advice, e.g. The S&P 500 will be well below 5,000 by September 30th, is already a huge red flag. The market is immaterial.

Walt said:
Perhaps you see it as that. I see it as a thread I explore my ideas for investments, and invite others to make suggestions.
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Well, it is all that, but no one can deny that this thread documents how your trading basis is TDS-generated panic rather than relevant market information, and how you turn otherwise profit potential into huge gambling losses. It's all right here in this thread. You would have been wise to create this thread before buying your options, asking JPP for their thoughts. You probably would have been talked out of making the obviously bogus decision you were making while having some sense talked into you.

Walt said:
You think one trade going badly proves someone has no real knowledge about the stock market?
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Yes, your demonstration that your TDS overrides any dispassionate market analysis you might otherwise make, shows clearly that you don't know anything about the markets. Tell me, am I missing anything?

"Trump is so BAD that I'm going to throw my money away!"

Walt said:
A professional trader will always have trades going bad.
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An addicted gambler will always have gambling losses.

Walt said:
A great trader will have hedge investments losing money all day long.
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Nope. Hedges are only for ameliorating a certain amount of risk. Where the risk is sufficiently low, no hedging is required.

Walt said:
Now I did not lose on a hedge investment, but even great traders lose money on a percent of their trades.
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Now you did not lose on any of your "saver" bets, but even great gamblers lose money on a percentage of their bets.

Walt said:
Worth noting I am far from a great trader, but I have made some real money on this. I clearly know more than you.
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Perhaps you can see the problem with your statement here. This thread documents how I know much more than you, and how I tried to help you but it was too late, and you were far too caught up in your TDS to listen to anyone anyway.

You do remember this thread, don't you? It documents your speculation incompetence quite well. You also don't even know what "investing" is. You're trying to go toe-to-toe with me and it won't go well for you, especially in threads where your rookie errors are documented.

Nonetheless, anytime you'd like to discuss a speculation decision before you make it, I'm happy to point you in the right direction.
 
Walt said:
I would hope the market does not fail. That would mean none of us get any money. I am looking for a market correction. The market goes up, and the market goes down... Actually, I am doing well with the market going up. What would really hurt me is if the market did nothing.


There is something odd happening these days. A group of retail investors are buying on the dip, but strangely enough buying on the pre-dip. So bad news comes out, they see that and realize it will probably cause a dip, so they buy. The buying happens before the dip, so there is no dip. In fact, there is a raise.

In other words, bad news is leading to the market going up. It cannot go on forever like that, but it is anyone's guess when it is giving out. There are too many factors to calculate that.


I bought a bunch of SPY 12/05/25 $645 Puts at an average price of $4.51. I saw it as a good buying opportunity.

You look at the rapid rise of the stock market, and use that as proof that the stock market cannot possible crash. I see a classical bubble and proof that the stock market must crash. Which one of us is right?

Stocks are totally out of touch with the realities of the current economy, but if the future economy has extremely strong growth, then you could be right. If we start seeing growth in the double digits, you will be OK.


My SPY 12/05/25 $645 Puts have gone up by 21.16%. My SPY 11/14/25 $645 Puts have gone down by 80.11%. I am definitely down in my unrealized options trades, but up in my unrealized mutual fund investments.

The great thing about a diversified portfolio is I really do not get hurt by much. And they are unrealized gains and losses, so any pain is just psychological until it isn't.

I did have a huge realized loss September 30th, but so many gains other than that loss that I am doing fine.


No one can promise you a 14% return. They will not give your money back. Some promise that they will not take a bonus unless you make 14%. That creates a situation where they win if you win, and if you lose, you lose alone.


There is only so much of your own time to sell, which means there is a ceiling to how much you can make at a "real job". There is no limit on the amount of investments you can have, so no ceiling. Beyond that real earned income rises at an average rate of around 2% or less, whereas unearned income rises at closer to 10%. In the US, Taxes on unearned income are much lower than taxes on earned income.

I could go on and on why it is better to have unearned income.


You know what field has the most millionaires? School teachers. There are a lot of them, but also they tend to put away a bit in reasonable investments. Doctors spend too much, and take too many bad risks. There are a lot of nurses who really are doing well, in a quiet sort of way.

I do take risks, but only with the extra money. The standard investments are SWTSX, SWISX, and SCOXX, mutual funds representing a broad swath investments.


Your home value was propped up by illegal aliens and Section 8 housing? How poor are you that someone working in a field 12 hours for $50 can afford to prop up your home value?


With the legal lottery, does anyone actually use the Numbers Game anymore?


I am sorry to hear you got banned. From where, and was it permanent?
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too big to fail is fascism not free trade.
 
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