I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th

Into the Night said:
An ounce of gold is still worth an ounce of gold
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A dollar is still worth a dollar. The issue is what an ounce of gold can buy goes up and down wildly. That is a lot of inflation and deflation. The highest inflation numbers are still when we were on the gold standard, and it is nearly impossible to get out of a liquidity trap when you are on the gold standard.
 
EdwinA said:
It's just stupid for these morons to believe the Federal govt. should be loaning money out at what are negative interest rates.
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Is it stupid that trump wants the Fed to loan money at well below inflation, thereby causing an effectively negative interest rate?
 
GreatAmerican said:
At this point in time the trend says you are wrong:
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There is a very good chance I was wrong, but it is not yet time to say I am wrong.

Technically September 30th would be time to say I was wrong. There is a real chance that this bubble will burst before September 30th.

Or maybe not. I could be early, which is just a fancy way to say I would be wrong.
 
EdwinA said:
but apparently the auto-trading algorithms and institutional minds are all insane.
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It appears to mostly be a group of retail investors that hope to buy on the dip. We are seeing trump do crazy things, then reverse them, and the stock market react by setting prices higher than when trump began. That should not be how it works.

So basically, it is you pushing up the price of stocks. Do you think you will run out of money by September 30th? I am beginning to worry that you will not.
 
EdwinA said:
I'm never wrong.
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So now you are claiming to be God?

Into the Night said:
Deflation is not a liquidity trap or a trap of any kind.
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Deflation causing more deflation is called a liquidity trap.

Into the Night said:
Inflation does not cause inflation
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If I have an expectation of inflation, I will demand higher pay, which causes inflation. Worse yet, I will attempt to spend my money before the inflation devalues the money, causing a higher velocity of money, and more inflation.

If I have an expectation that my money will be worth more in the future, I will save it, causing deflation.
 
Walt said:
Worth reminding everyone that trump is very angry at the Fed for not dropping the prime rate to 1%. Considering the danger of inflation, 1% would be insane. It would basically be backdoor QE, because major corps could borrow money at 1% and lend it to the government at 4%. That would lock in an absolute safe profit. Even if the government unconstitutionally defaults, the mature bonds are allowed to be used pay back Fed loans.

This would turbo charge the economy, but also make high inflation definite. Inflation would quickly outpace the overheating economy, causing the real economy to collapse into a recession. But it would give trump a claim he has growth.
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Actully Trump knows the Feds shouldn't be loaning out any money at all, but you being stupid and clueless can't grasp that point.

It's worth reminding everyone most of the billionaires, Red Chinese, and most all the big megacorps support the Democrats, and Walt doesn't have a clue.
 
Walt said:
Worth reminding everyone that trump is very angry at the Fed for not dropping the prime rate to 1%. Considering the danger of inflation, 1% would be insane. It would basically be backdoor QE, because major corps could borrow money at 1% and lend it to the government at 4%. That would lock in an absolute safe profit. Even if the government unconstitutionally defaults, the mature bonds are allowed to be used pay back Fed loans.

This would turbo charge the economy, but also make high inflation definite. Inflation would quickly outpace the overheating economy, causing the real economy to collapse into a recession. But it would give trump a claim he has growth.
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Walt said:
It appears to mostly be a group of retail investors that hope to buy on the dip. We are seeing trump do crazy things, then reverse them, and the stock market react by setting prices higher than when trump began. That should not be how it works.

So basically, it is you pushing up the price of stocks. Do you think you will run out of money by September 30th? I am beginning to worry that you will not.
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WAlt doesn't know shit; he never reads the info available on stocks on any trading window, like total numbers of shares and another stat that shows the shares outstanding available on the markets. lol Walt doesn't know how anything should work, he just parrots some talking head he saw on TV or podcast.
 
Walt said:
A dollar is still worth a dollar. The issue is what an ounce of gold can buy goes up and down wildly. That is a lot of inflation and deflation. The highest inflation numbers are still when we were on the gold standard, and it is nearly impossible to get out of a liquidity trap when you are on the gold standard.
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Hilarious.
 
EdwinA said:
Actully Trump knows the Feds shouldn't be loaning out any money at all
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That is the exact opposite of what trump is saying.

EdwinA said:
he never reads the info available on stocks on any trading window
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There are a lot of people who keep up on stocks more than me, but I certainly keep up on stocks more than you.

EdwinA said:
like total numbers of shares and another stat that shows the shares outstanding available on the markets
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I am totally fascinated by the depth of orders. Maybe too fascinated.

EdwinA said:
he just parrots some talking head he saw on TV or podcast.
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I have not had TV in about a decade. I do not listen to podcasts much. I do listen to The Economist a lot, and look up information. I have been reading through Manias, Panics, and Crashes by Kindleberger. I really wanted to read The Great Depression 1929-1939 by Kindleberger, but it is not on the Kindle(that is not a pun), and I am getting too lazy to read books not on the Kindle.

There is a very real possibility that we are headed into another Kindleberger Trap... But you will not hear about any of this from alt right sources.

EdwinA said:
Yes, cuz that's what I said!
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Only God is never wrong.
 
Walt said:
That is the exact opposite of what trump is saying.


There are a lot of people who keep up on stocks more than me, but I certainly keep up on stocks more than you.


I am totally fascinated by the depth of orders. Maybe too fascinated.


I have not had TV in about a decade. I do not listen to podcasts much. I do listen to The Economist a lot, and look up information. I have been reading through Manias, Panics, and Crashes by Kindleberger. I really wanted to read The Great Depression 1929-1939 by Kindleberger, but it is not on the Kindle(that is not a pun), and I am getting too lazy to read books not on the Kindle.

There is a very real possibility that we are headed into another Kindleberger Trap... But you will not hear about any of this from alt right sources.


Only God is never wrong.
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Now Walt tries parsing. lol and still can't get it right.
 
Walt said:
Companies become too big to fail when regulators allow them to merge into something too big fail. We should get better regulators.
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right.

regulators made the banks resell bad loans they knew were bad, and regulators paid off the ratings agency to keep known bad tranches of resecuritized known bad loans at a high quality rating.
 
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