I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th
- Thread starter Walt
- Start date
You are correct. I still believe it will be going under 5,000, but I may have timed it wrong. The old saying"you can never outlast an irrational market" would then apply. If I do keep the investment, and SPY is above $500(which is about S&P 500 being above 5,000) on September 30th, I lose my entire investment. This is not a losing 50% of my investment situation. It is entire investment. Obviously, I keep my reserve money, which I did not invest. In fact, I get a nice return on the reserve. Right now the return on the reserve is 17.55%.
The problem is there is a word. Humans are bad at understanding concepts that do not have a word, so there would be a lot less investment against me without the word. The word is TACO(trump always chickens out). Retail investors are investing based on the certainty that trump will always back down from his stupidity.
Beyond that, trump is doing stuff blatantly illegal. trump's claim of having absolute power to set tariffs is absurd on the face of it. The Constitution clearly gives the power to set tariffs to Congress. The claim that the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act was Congress delegating its power to the president. First, the IEEPA only allows any action to regulate trade when it applies to a national emergency. General regulations(like general tariffs) are not allowed. Second, tariffs are not specifically mentioned at all. How can you delegate a power, without specifically mentioning the power? The law that applies would be the 1974 Trade Act, which puts much greater restrictions on how high tariffs can be set, and requires an extensive investigation before the tariffs are set. Worse yet for trump, it specifically allows the courts to overturn his tariffs if he does not do the entire investigation.
So there is a word, that investors think give insight into trump, and a good explanation of how the system can keep him from destroying our economy. I do not believe either will hold forever, but they may hold until September 30th.
I could buy later dated contract, say December 31st. Selling cheaper September 30th contracts, and buying more expensive December 31st contracts does mean a loss. And if the market does crash before September 30th, it will be a loss for nothing. But as the time ticks away, the loss becomes bigger, so it is a tough decision. If I do the transfer, I would want to do it on a dip in the market. The absolute difference between contract prices stays basically the same, so if they are a little higher priced the percent loss is lower.
And there is a real chance that the markets will not collapse until next year. So I would still lose it all. Whatever I do I am keeping my reserve untouched. That will mean that my retirement is set, and prosperous. Even if I could save the entire investment with a little more money, I am not doing that. Because most of the investment is in a Roth, I cannot add more money, so if it is a loss it is a loss.
So I will either have a prosperous retirement, or an extremely prosperous retirement. When I think of it like that, it stings less. It is just painful to lose such a huge amount of money in one day. I am not going to say what my highest one day loss was, but it was about double the most I have made in a year from working.
Pick a long enough timeline and you can be 'right' about anything sooner or later. He probably knows his BS will be long forgotten by then. The 'markets' are back to being over-priced again.
The markets are not pricing this as being a fairly long timeline. As of yesterday, a SPY $500 put expiring 09/30/2025 was $3.50. If I am right, it would end up 10 to 100 times higher.
So far, I have been wrong. I have lost two thirds of my investment. If I had bought now, I would have been able to buy three times as much. So I was not 100% perfect.
Whatever, I am on record. We will see what happens.
Have you ever put thought into why the American markets can be "over-priced"?
We are the safe haven market, where rules are respected. We have the world currency, or maybe just the world dominant currency. We have strong growth, in general, but especially for a first world country. We have innovation based on education.
All of that is under attack. trump wants huge taxes on foreigners investing in the USA. he is destroying our education system, which fuels our growth, and innovation. I could go on, but all the things that are great about America are under attack.
Ever put thought into anything besides 'Amurka Sucks!!!', and be different from the other whiney Burb Brats?
They're 'over-priced' because Wall Street sucks up too much money away from real investments, as businesses here are forced to compete with multi-nationals who have their slave labor subsidized by govt. welfare bennies and tax breaks. They can make better money gambling.
You commies destroyed the education system, not Trump, and did it on purpose, so quit pissing on our legs and then claiming it's raining. Less than 15% of STEM college graduates were finding jobs in technical fields, for all the big noise making from idiots over needing more 'education n stuff'.
Trump's policies are changing that; the trade deficit has dropped like a rock, and foreign companies are moving production here, dumbass.
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Under Biden, there were points that we were outgrowing China, which is just amazing considering how much more established we are. There is a new revolution coming, and we were the best positioned for it. We are not talking about a small revolution, but rather one on the level of the industrial revolution or the neolithic agricultural revolution.
America is great. It is trump that sucks.
lol more blatantly dumb rubbish. Biden was bribed by Red China to fuck over the U.S., and all his fans here love him for it.
Yes, anyone who tried to shutdown Harvard like Biden did would have to be bribed by China... Wait, was it Biden who did that?
lol now Walt as usual tries to shift the subject again. He knows he has nothing.
The Peanut Gallery can amuse themselves by finding a Harvard catalog and looking up the lost of Professors and their credentials. The vast majority come from Flyover Country, not 'ivy league' cess pools. Interesting. Then look up where most of their 'administrators' came from.
I have gone to an Ivy League, and a huge number of professors come from other countries. Many others are Jewish, or other coastal liberals. Without credentials from a top ranked university, it is difficult to get a staff position at a top ranked university.
Obviously, there are exceptions, but even those exceptions are limited. Elizabeth Warren comes from Oklahoma. She went to George Washington University, University of Houston, and Rutgers --- all good, but none top. She taught at two Ivies. That being said, she was definitely did not go to one of these fake right wing schools.
lol more rubbish. Like I said, people can loo up for themselves who they hire as professors, no need to believe Walt's dumbass fictions. the average Jr. college has as many qualified instructors as Harvard, and without hiring BLM thugs and swindlers to teach classes nor fake 'indians'.
I have been to community colleges and Ivy League universities, there is no comparison. A community college gives a two year education, and an Ivy League university gives a 7 to 9 year education. I could go on from there.
I think God I live in a country with excellent community colleges, but it is just stupid you think they compare to an Ivy League education.
You experiences as a job hopping janitor cleaning toilets doesn't impress.
Sammy Jankis
Was it me?
the big players keep the market fake.
insider trading cannot be breached, but you fascist elitists like it that way.
you're bad people.
Sammy Jankis
Was it me?
why was GameStop trading paused a couple years ago?
care to brave an answer, faggotry specialist?
care to brave an answer, faggotry specialist?
Sammy Jankis
Was it me?
free markets my shiny asshole.
Dutch Uncle
* Tertia Optio * Defend the Constitution
^^^
Studied English as a second language.
Sammy Jankis
Was it me?
why are you xenophoibic?