Hyper Inflation

Jarod said:
Wake me when it gets here, I heard all the same shit when Obama was elected.
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Smarter people dont worry too much about who is saying what, and what was said in the past....that is noise.....the signal is what is happening now.

jsyk
 
I am still looking for thoughts on the idea of parking $10,000 in gold and maybe silver coins in a safe deposit box by the end of summer, as a hedge against hyper-inflation.
 
I took $80k out of the markets oct 16, I am all out now:

$40K into the house
$6K into the Jeep and the Mercury, which we will keep three more years
$10 or maybe more in precious metals
The rest cash for now.

I am about half done spending it.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
I am not trying to time the market, I am setting myself up for what is coming as best I can...because I am not after all a Modern Moron.
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You are trying to 'time the Market' by cashing out. (you need to stay invested, ... rebalance at most)
 
Hawkeye10 said:
I am still looking for thoughts on the idea of parking $10,000 in gold and maybe silver coins in a safe deposit box by the end of summer, as a hedge against hyper-inflation.
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Gold's still up kinda high. Somebody's who's more of a gambler than me could make a lot of money on oil futures this year.

Biden will cause a fuel crisis in America most likely before this winter.
 
Matt Dillon said:
Gold's still up kinda high. Somebody's who's more of a gambler than me could make a lot of money on oil futures this year.

Biden will cause a fuel crisis in America most likely before this winter.
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My main problem with gold is that I keep hearing rumors of vast stores of gold accumulated in secret often by governments that will flood the market when the crash comes....these folks know that it will, they intend to profit.
 
Keep some cash handy. The current tech situation is bound to crash, and crash hard.

There's hardly any stock for any tech products right now. Not sure how soon there will be or if there will be, even. (I'm sure there will be..sometime..)

Appliances are hard to get as well. Keep those 2 things in mind and realize that appliances often have PCBs in them. That makes appliances tech-related.

PCB=Printed Circuit Board.

Ford and Chevy had to stop production because they didn't have circuit boards that they have integrated into their vehicles.

That makes cars tech-related as well. Really there's no need for that, but it is the current situation.

The demand for all that is not being met.
 
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Matt Dillon said:
Keep some cash handy. The current tech situation is bound to crash, and crash hard.

There's hardly any stock for any tech products right now. Not sure how soon there will be or if there will be, even. (I'm sure there will be..sometime..)

Appliances are hard to get as well. Keep those 2 things in mind and realize that appliances often have PCBs in them. That makes appliances tech-related.

PCB=Printed Circuit Board.

Ford and Chevy had to stop production because they didn't have circuit boards that they have integrated into their vehicles.

That makes cars tech-related as well. Really there's no need for that, but it is the current situation.

The demand for all that is not being met.
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Contrary to what power claims people overall have more money to spend than ever, and are putting a lot of it into their homes, for various reasons....tradesmen are in demand, and charge like it....a situation that will only get worse till the crash comes.





DISCLAIMER: This is what I see, your mileage may vary.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
Contrary to what power claims people overall have more money to spend than ever, and are putting a lot of it into their homes, for various reasons....tradesmen are in demand, and charge like it....a situation that will only get worse till the crash comes.





DISCLAIMER: This is what I see, your mileage may vary.
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Bartering for real things is your friend.
I only have to cook 1/2 the week or less. I share what I have with others, and they share what they have with me.

I am a tradesman. I have a skill or 2. Also know how to hunt and cook. If it gets bad, I'll get chickens and maybe goats and plant a garden.

I have seeds, not sure how viable. My back yard is wasted so I'll need all new dirt.

I know an ol' girl that knows how to do all things milk. She ain't that pretty, but she a nice girl and could teach how to do things.
AKA churn butter and make cheese n stuff.
I actually have 2 butter churns.
I know how to do chickens, hogs, too. Cows too, for that matter. I'd find it hard to slaughter a cow I'd been raising though. :(
Or a pig I got attached to, for that matter.
I suppose that's why my friend keeps his old sow, she's a big ass pet. She eats all the day's leftovers from everybody and is kinda sweet.
 
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Matt Dillon said:
Bartering for real things is your friend.
I only have to cook 1/2 the week or less. I share what I have with others, and they share what they have with me.

I am a tradesman. I have a skill or 2. Also know how to hunt and cook. If it gets bad, I'll get chickens and maybe goats.

I know an ol' girl that knows how to do all things milk. She ain't that pretty, but she a nice girl and could teach how to do things.
AKA churn butter and make cheese n stuff.
I actually have 2 butter churns.
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See this is what we have too little of now...real men with the capacity and the inclination to think things through.....who always do their best.

+12U!
 
Hawkeye10 said:
How concerned should I be about there being hyper inflation in America over the next 15 years...the max that I expect to live? If I was concerned about that what would I do with $100,000 cash right now? I pulled out of the markets Oct 16, expecting a crash. I am not opposed to going back post crash.
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I just read an article in the Economist about the chances of various types of inflation. The market is roughly pricing in a 30% chance of 3% inflation, a 30% chance of under 1% inflation, and a 40% chance of 2% inflation. So Biden has hit the sweet spot in-between slightly too high and slightly too low inflation. According to the market, there is less than a 2% chance of over 6% inflation, but that is probably higher than the real chances because people like betting on long shots. I doubt there is any reasonable chance of hyperinflation (10,000% and above).

I would be more concerned about you thinking you can only live 15 years at most. Unless you have cancer or something like that, there is no telling how long you could live. You should certainly strive to live longer than 15 years more. Cheney had a severe, almost life ending, in 1978, and is still alive and well 43 years later at age 80. There is a real danger you will outlive your savings.

If there is high inflation, invest in something that is not fixed. If you hold cash, that will lose money during inflation. If you hold bonds that pay a fixed rate, that will lose money during inflation. Gold will retain value, and stocks will probably grow faster than inflation over time in value.

Retaining value seems great, until you realize taxes. Lets say you buy $1000 worth of gold, when $1 can buy a candy bar (so you buy 1000 candy bars worth of gold). There is 1000% inflation, and so a candy bar is now $10. You sell the gold for $10,000 (still 1000 candy bars), but then you have to pay taxes. You had a $9000 capital gain, and pay a third of that in taxes, leaving you with $7000 after taxes. That is 700 candy bars worth. You just lost 300 candy bars by retaining value, but having to pay taxes.

Now if you can get better than retaining value, like in the stock market, that is what is really great.
 
Walt said:
I just read an article in the Economist about the chances of various types of inflation. The market is roughly pricing in a 30% chance of 3% inflation, a 30% chance of under 1% inflation, and a 40% chance of 2% inflation. So Biden has hit the sweet spot in-between slightly too high and slightly too low inflation. According to the market, there is less than a 2% chance of over 6% inflation, but that is probably higher than the real chances because people like betting on long shots. I doubt there is any reasonable chance of hyperinflation (10,000% and above).

I would be more concerned about you thinking you can only live 15 years at most. Unless you have cancer or something like that, there is no telling how long you could live. You should certainly strive to live longer than 15 years more. Cheney had a severe, almost life ending, in 1978, and is still alive and well 43 years later at age 80. There is a real danger you will outlive your savings.

If there is high inflation, invest in something that is not fixed. If you hold cash, that will lose money during inflation. If you hold bonds that pay a fixed rate, that will lose money during inflation. Gold will retain value, and stocks will probably grow faster than inflation over time in value.

Retaining value seems great, until you realize taxes. Lets say you buy $1000 worth of gold, when $1 can buy a candy bar (so you buy 1000 candy bars worth of gold). There is 1000% inflation, and so a candy bar is now $10. You sell the gold for $10,000 (still 1000 candy bars), but then you have to pay taxes. You had a $9000 capital gain, and pay a third of that in taxes, leaving you with $7000 after taxes. That is 700 candy bars worth. You just lost 300 candy bars by retaining value, but having to pay taxes.

Now if you can get better than retaining value, like in the stock market, that is what is really great.
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I will have to get back go this...I am about to do Blade Runner.

Feel free to nudge me if I forget.

Steve
 
Hawkeye10 said:
How concerned should I be about there being hyper inflation in America over the next 15 years...the max that I expect to live?

If I was concerned about that what would I do with $100,000 cash right now?

I pulled out of the markets Oct 16, expecting a crash.

I am not opposed to going back post crash.

tyvm
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gamestop.
 
Concart said:
Yes, it's been coming since 2008. Wake me up when it gets here, will you nutter?
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I’m no economist but there’s a lot of “free” money floating around out there. No different from other industrialized nations. This devalues the money . I don’t see how some degree of inflation is avoidable.
 
Walt said:
I just read an article in the Economist about the chances of various types of inflation. The market is roughly pricing in a 30% chance of 3% inflation, a 30% chance of under 1% inflation, and a 40% chance of 2% inflation. So Biden has hit the sweet spot in-between slightly too high and slightly too low inflation. According to the market, there is less than a 2% chance of over 6% inflation, but that is probably higher than the real chances because people like betting on long shots. I doubt there is any reasonable chance of hyperinflation (10,000% and above).

I would be more concerned about you thinking you can only live 15 years at most. Unless you have cancer or something like that, there is no telling how long you could live. You should certainly strive to live longer than 15 years more. Cheney had a severe, almost life ending, in 1978, and is still alive and well 43 years later at age 80. There is a real danger you will outlive your savings.

If there is high inflation, invest in something that is not fixed. If you hold cash, that will lose money during inflation. If you hold bonds that pay a fixed rate, that will lose money during inflation. Gold will retain value, and stocks will probably grow faster than inflation over time in value.

Retaining value seems great, until you realize taxes. Lets say you buy $1000 worth of gold, when $1 can buy a candy bar (so you buy 1000 candy bars worth of gold). There is 1000% inflation, and so a candy bar is now $10. You sell the gold for $10,000 (still 1000 candy bars), but then you have to pay taxes. You had a $9000 capital gain, and pay a third of that in taxes, leaving you with $7000 after taxes. That is 700 candy bars worth. You just lost 300 candy bars by retaining value, but having to pay taxes.

Now if you can get better than retaining value, like in the stock market, that is what is really great.
Click to expand...

The global economic system is Dead Man Walking, most people just dont know it yet...the Chinese will be the most important voice in what comes next.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
How concerned should I be about there being hyper inflation in America over the next 15 years...the max that I expect to live?

If I was concerned about that what would I do with $100,000 cash right now?

I pulled out of the markets Oct 16, expecting a crash.

I am not opposed to going back post crash.

tyvm
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I wouldn't worry about hyper-inflation but diversification is always a good idea over the long term.
 
Advice from the experts...Wu Tang Financial:

tenor.gif
 
Guille said:
I wouldn't worry about hyper-inflation but diversification is always a good idea over the long term.
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One of the lessons of the Great Recession, I know because I paid attention and listened to people who seemed to know what they were talking about...one of the things that got proven was "Diversify and then you will be OK" is complete Bull Shit.

THere was nowhere to hide, it was only a matter of order.
 
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