Hopey Changie!

[Damocles]

Well, the economy isn't a single business. Your metaphor is set up to produce the result that you want.

I guess just don't understand why you won't just simply agree with the obvious: the economy is improving although it has a long way to go. I would suggest that it's more partisan claptrap from a typical Republican, but that could never be true of you.

Nah, the metaphor is simply a microcosm of a larger system and was used to explain clearly why those particular numbers are not the sign he is looking for, basically I have stated that you should look at other areas. There are some that show we've reached bottom and therefore we have up to look forward to, there are unfortunately others that show we may be headed towards another cliff and I hope we avoid it.

It's like looking at a speed limit sign during a road trip and saying you must be nearing your destination because you've entered a residential area and you were headed to a residential area. The speed limit sign just doesn't indicate what you are saying it does in that case. It's possible you are nearing your destination, but you should be looking at the street signs, not the speed limit to determine that.

 

[Damocles]

Ill say it did not used to be true of him.

Ask a direct question and he will usually answer.

Damo, do you belive the economy is improving?

Look at this post, young Padawan, and you will find my answer to that question.

Nah, the metaphor is simply a microcosm of a larger system and was used to explain clearly why those particular numbers are not the sign he is looking for, basically I have stated that you should look at other areas. There are some that show we've reached bottom and therefore we have up to look forward to, there are unfortunately others that show we may be headed towards another cliff and I hope we avoid it.

It's like looking at a speed limit sign during a road trip and saying you must be nearing your destination because you've entered a residential area and you were headed to a residential area. The speed limit sign just doesn't indicate what you are saying it does in that case. It's possible you are nearing your destination, but you should be looking at the street signs, not the speed limit to determine that.

I think that if we can avoid the pitfalls I spoke of earlier then we can expect improvement, but if we do not we are in for a double-dip and IMO that will happen this year or early next if it is going to.

 

[Bonestorm]

Nah, the metaphor is simply a microcosm of a larger system and was used to explain clearly why those particular numbers are not the sign he is looking for, basically I have stated that you should look at other areas. There are some that show we've reached bottom and therefore we have up to look forward to, there are unfortunately others that show we may be headed towards another cliff and I hope we avoid it.

It's like looking at a speed limit sign during a road trip and saying you must be nearing your destination because you've entered a residential area and you were headed to a residential area. The speed limit sign just doesn't indicate what you are saying it does in that case. It's possible you are nearing your destination, but you should be looking at the street signs, not the speed limit to determine that.

Metaphors aside (your practice is to use them to obfuscate, not illuminate) what are the signs that show that the economy is headed towards another cliff? On what basis do you contend that the economy is not improving?

 

[Damocles]

Metaphors aside (your practice is to use them to obfuscate, not illuminate) what are the signs that show that the economy is headed towards another cliff? On what basis do you contend that the economy is not improving?

I pointed some of those out earlier, you've just been busy arguing that the speed limit is the sign we should be looking at.

Bad things: The upcoming foreclosures, including those on mortgages that were redone by Obama's program, the consumer credit issues that are looming.

Good things: Small growth in the GDP in the fourth Q of last year (should be much larger after such a steep down, hopefully it will improve in the next).

Other signs that politicos agree that there are still pitfalls on the horizon: New Stimulus talk even before most of this stimulus has been spent.

 

[Cancel 2016.2]

Metaphors aside (your practice is to use them to obfuscate, not illuminate) what are the signs that show that the economy is headed towards another cliff? On what basis do you contend that the economy is not improving?

1) 5 year ARM resets from 2005

2) Credit card defaults increasing

3) Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland... any one can trigger a meltdown in Europe

4) China... tightening its credit and removing stimulus to control inflation and slow growth.

5) Mortgage defaults continuing to rise (which likely will lead to more foreclosures)

6) CA... can they survive without a Federal bailout? Doubtful... but can the Fed bail them out? If they do, it sets a bad precedent. (this is a similar situation to what the wealthier EU countries are facing with the countries in number 3)

7) Deficit spending is out of control

8) Unemployment is likely going to remain above 9% for at least the remainder of this year if not longer... which will cause consumer spending on the whole to remain tight

9) Commercial real estate... sitting on the edge of another implosion if credit doesn't start loosening up

There are a lot of things sitting on the edge right now. If we don't start addressing some of these problems, we will see the double dip.

 

[Canceled1]

I hope not. Unemployment is a lagging indicator. However, the coming foreclosures that they have been unable to stave off with patches can roadblock any recovery, and there are several more obstacles (including consumer credit) that will create challenges.

Seriously, regardless of who is in the WH we need to hope that things will get better soon.

I live in California. The worst is still yet to come.

 

[Damocles]

I live in California. The worst is still yet to come.

I feel for you, you guys made yourself a tough row to hoe...

 

[Bonestorm]

There are a lot of things sitting on the edge right now. If we don't start addressing some of these problems, we will see the double dip.

Right. Double dip, not continued decline. Hence, the economy is improving but has a long way to go.

 

[Bonestorm]

I pointed some of those out earlier, you've just been busy arguing that the speed limit is the sign we should be looking at.

Bad things: The upcoming foreclosures, including those on mortgages that were redone by Obama's program, the consumer credit issues that are looming.

Good things: Small growth in the GDP in the fourth Q of last year (should be much larger after such a steep down, hopefully it will improve in the next).

Other signs that politicos agree that there are still pitfalls on the horizon: New Stimulus talk even before most of this stimulus has been spent.

None of that has anything to do with whether the economy is improving. That all has to do with whether the economy will continue to improve.


Edit: And while I have your attention, what do your propose should be done about the upcoming foreclosure explosion (I agree that there will indeed be one)?

 

[Damocles]

None of that has anything to do with whether the economy is improving. That all has to do with whether the economy will continue to improve.

None of it, huh? Inane.

 

[Cancel 2016.2]

Right. Double dip, not continued decline. Hence, the economy is improving but has a long way to go.

Um... yes, a second dip would be a new decline. Which would be a sign that they did not solve the major problems facing this nation, but rather created a stop gap that gave us temporary relief. Instead of focusing on solving the long term problems, your messiah instead tried to cram a health care bill down our throats that would have enhanced the problems we face.

 

[Bonestorm]

None of it, huh? Inane.

No. None of it. You mention problems on the horizon, not things that dictate whether the economy is currently improving. What current data do you have that suggests that the economy is not improving?

 

[Damocles]

No. None of it. You mention problems on the horizon, not things that dictate whether the economy is currently improving. What current data do you have that suggests that the economy is not improving?

So the small Growth in the GDP that I mentioned and you quoted doesn't speak to that? That's really your position?

If that is really your position then there is no need to even continue talking to you because the basic building blocks of understanding on your part are missing and there is no way to give you the understanding that you need to even participate in this conversation.

And continued jobs losses, as I explained before, are one sign that improvement may not be happening right now. We currently have mixed signs, and I hope that we will head in the positive direction, but I fear what we'll do is start promoting health care to the detriment of our economy again.

 

[Onceler]

Um... yes, a second dip would be a new decline. Which would be a sign that they did not solve the major problems facing this nation, but rather created a stop gap that gave us temporary relief. Instead of focusing on solving the long term problems, your messiah instead tried to cram a health care bill down our throats that would have enhanced the problems we face.

That's certainly debatable. First, healthcare is a big part of our long-term economic problem. Second, the admin firmly believed & presented #'s to suggest that the health bill would lower costs over time.

You can laugh that off, but there are differing sets of #'s that have been presented by both sides, and both amount to nothing more than speculation, anyway.

 

[Bonestorm]

So the small Growth in the GDP that I mentioned and you quoted doesn't speak to that? That's really your position?

If that is really your position then there is no need to even continue talking to you because the basic building blocks of understanding on your part are missing.

I posted the GDP chart that shows quite clearly that the GDP picture is indeed improving. Where we have several quarters of economic contraction, any increase in GDP is an indication that the economy is indeed getting better.

If you can't understand that simple concept (which you seemingly cannot) I agree that this conversation need not continue. You either (1) do not understand what getting better means, or (2) you're just having fun with me.

 

[Timshel]

None of that has anything to do with whether the economy is improving. That all has to do with whether the economy will continue to improve.

A slowing of the rise in unemployment is not improvement. It can only be a sign of improvement if we expect the trend to continue. That is, it's only a positive if we make assumptions that the trend will continue and lead to actual improvement.

 

[Damocles]

I posted the GDP chart that shows quite clearly that the GDP picture is indeed improving. Where we have several quarters of economic contraction, any increase in GDP is an indication that the economy is indeed getting better.

If you can't understand that simple concept (which you seemingly cannot) I agree that this conversation need not continue. You either (1) do not understand what getting better means, or (2) you're just having fun with me.

*sigh*

You asked me for signs it could be getting better, I used the growing GDP as an example of that. You then said that nothing I spoke of could indicate it is getting better, because you don't want to "hear" what I say.

You then asked for signs that it is not getting better, I gave you one of those and have been speaking about it throughout this thread.

You now say that I haven't spoken of signs of improvement (I have) and then later signs that we may not have that improvement (I have).

You either are too stupid to participate or you cannot let yourself actually understand something from somebody on the other side of the political spectrum. Either way any further attempt to communicate with you will meet with the same understanding my dog has of this conversation.

We currently have mixed signs in regard to the economy.

 

[Bonestorm]

*sigh*

The bottom line, my friend, is that you cling to the nonsensical notion that the economy is not getting better when all available data suggests that it is.

Then, when pressed for evidence that the economy is not getting better, the only real data you point to actually shows that the economy is getting better (positive GDP after several consecutive quarters of contraction) and then you mention things that might hinder future economic improvement.

 

[Damocles]

The bottom line, my friend, is that you cling to the nonsensical notion that the economy is not getting better when all available data suggests that it is.

Then, when pressed for evidence that the economy is not getting better, the only real data you point to actually shows that the economy is getting better (positive GDP after several consecutive quarters of contraction) and then you mention things that might hinder future economic improvement.

No, I do not. I simply point out that that one sign isn't one you should be using to support your argument and I explained why that is.

You then pretend that means I have suggested that there are no signs of improvement, which was later proved false by my directly posting about a sign of improvement.

When asked for a sign of improvement I offered a sign of improvement, when asked for a sign that we might not be improving I provided one. You simply deliberately "misunderstand" what I post and then post this kind of rubbish.

 

[Bonestorm]

A slowing of the rise in unemployment is not improvement. It can only be a sign of improvement if we expect the trend to continue. That is, it's only a positive if we make assumptions that the trend will continue and lead to actual improvement.

I'm not arguing this point again. In my view it is a sign of improvement, not a sign that we are out of the woods. You and Damo disagree, which is fine. But this is merely a difference of opinion on which we will have to agree to disagree.