Has Trump Already Lost Nevada?

Teflon Don said:
Clinton has given up on Florida and Ohio. They are both gone. So is Iowa and NH. NC is probably gone as well.
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Polls in both states are even.

Oh, yeah - forgot. There are secret "internals" for all of those polls showing that they're not really even, but 18 point leads for Trump.
 
Thing1 said:
Polls in both states are even.

Oh, yeah - forgot. There are secret "internals" for all of those polls showing that they're not really even, but 18 point leads for Trump.
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i believe florida is even. If the internal polls for ohio showed clinton anywhere close to even clinton would be holding her rallies and gotv operations there instead of retreating to try and hold MI and PA.

I knew Ohio was lost to clinton the day NYT said it wasnt a swing state anymore.
 
tsuke said:
i believe florida is even. If the internal polls for ohio showed clinton anywhere close to even clinton would be holding her rallies and gotv operations there instead of retreating to try and hold MI and PA.

I knew Ohio was lost to clinton the day NYT said it wasnt a swing state anymore.
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You mean like the huge rally she had there today w/ Lebron James?

Good call. She had a 1 point lead in the most recent poll. Sorry to be the one to break it to ya.
 
Thing1 said:
Polls in both states are even.

Oh, yeah - forgot. There are secret "internals" for all of those polls showing that they're not really even, but 18 point leads for Trump.
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some polls are better than others and are weighted accordingly. If you follow god nate silver, he's had trump up in florida by about a 3-4% margin and crushing ohio by upwards of high 60's for quite a while now.
 
it's really hard for me to imagine nevada going red. that's why trump is largely at a disadvantage imo
 
I have noticed nate silver though seeming to hedge his predictions a bit more these days. Bit cowardly if you ask me. Just fucking go with it. It's never going to be an exact science, and you could be right that something is 60/40 and the 40 wins and you'll still look "wrong" to the uneducated.
 
Mr. Meeseeks said:
I have noticed nate silver though seeming to hedge his predictions a bit more these days. Bit cowardly if you ask me. Just fucking go with it. It's never going to be an exact science, and you could be right that something is 60/40 and the 40 wins and you'll still look "wrong" to the uneducated.
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Doesn't he base everything he does on the data - which is always changing?

The polls are tightening, both ways. States like OH which Trump seemed to have put away are now firmly in toss-up land.
 
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well nate in the primaries deliberately ignored his own data because he couldn't conceive of trump winning. he had to write a big mea culpa that he basically ignored his own data.

The bottom line is, what he does is also a business and it's important to him to be perceived as correct, so if you notice he's really going out of his way these days to be like "yeah this is likely buttttttttttttt" which he didn't use to do. He's hedging. But I am saying when it comes to making probabilistic predictions you can be "right" and still end up being perceived as "wrong" by the public. If a coinflip is 50/50 and it lands on tails that doesn't make your prediction of 50/50 incorrect, even though people will claim it was 100% to be tails. The public is far too results oriented.

I'm saying at this point he should draw a line in the sand and might as well commit without all the handwringing.
 
Thing1 said:
Polls in both states are even.

Oh, yeah - forgot. There are secret "internals" for all of those polls showing that they're not really even, but 18 point leads for Trump.
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Actually there is nothing secret about them. I have posted them. They are there for anyone to read. That you choose not to and are easily led by the headline is why you are getting banned on Wednesday.

I have said that IF the poll is correct then Trump wins Ohio and Florida. When was the last time a candidate won both Ohio AND Florida and lost the election.

Could the CBS polls I posted be wrong? Fuck yeah. But that is what I have to go on. That and reports that black turnout is down and watching where Clinton is spending her time in the last few days.

I haven't seen much analysis from you. Maybe you aren't smart enough? Or maybe you don't have the balls?
 
Mr. Meeseeks said:
well nate in the primaries deliberately ignored his own data because he couldn't conceive of trump winning. he had to write a big mea culpa that he basically ignored his own data.

The bottom line is, what he does is also a business and it's important to him to be perceived as correct, so if you notice he's really going out of his way these days to be like "yeah this is likely buttttttttttttt" which he didn't use to do. He's hedging. But I am saying when it comes to making probabilistic predictions you can be "right" and still end up being perceived as "wrong" by the public. If a coinflip is 50/50 and it lands on tails that doesn't make your prediction of 50/50 incorrect, even though people will claim it was 100% to be tails. The public is far too results oriented.

I'm saying at this point he should draw a line in the sand and might as well commit without all the handwringing.
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I actually believe he is hedging because he knows how unforgiving the left is when they don't get the results they want

Also, 2008 and 2012 were pretty easy to call from an electoral standpoint and data perspective. Admittedly I didn't look at it that way and was obviously wrong.

RCP has Florida as a lean Clinton and I believe she will lose Florida based on CBS poll. Am I cherry picking? No. if you just use early voting as a metric (not easy to do) then they are essentially tied in early voting in Florida. Republicans crush democrats in Election Day voting and black turnout is down. That is why I give Trump Florida. That gives him the 270

I believe Trump wins Michigan and even if he loses Nevada he still is over 270. Remember polls had Hillary up 20 in Michigan and she lost. Her internals must be showing bad news otherwise she wouldn't be going there. Also absentee ballots for blacks in Detroit are down significantly. Can she turn it around there? Maybe.

I know everyone is touting the GOTV of the democrat party but if someone isn't enthused it doesn't matter. Bottom line is that democrats just aren't that into her.

You see it on JPP
 
Let's say that both Latino's and non-college educated whites were underpolled this time around. Then we could live in a strange world where Florida and Nevada goes for Clinton while Pennsylvania and Michigan goes for Trump.
 
Waco was justice said:
Let's say that both Latino's and non-college educated whites were underpolled this time around. Then we could live in a strange world where Florida and Nevada goes for Clinton while Pennsylvania and Michigan goes for Trump.
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Let's game play this using your scenario

1) Option 1 - Hillary takes Nevada and Florida and Trump takes Michigan and Pennsylvania. Advantage Trump because there are more electoral votes

2) Option 2 - Trump could still take all four because even if Hispanic vote is up it may not be enough to offset higher percentage of whites. Remember hispanics are still a minority. Growing yes. But still outnumbered. Couple that with what we know is low turnout among blacks and this is a possibility

3) Option 3 - Clinton takes all four. This is HIGHLY unlikely but possible.

Of the three options above 1 and 2 favor Trump which puts his odds at 2:1 over Clinton
 
I don't know where you guys get the idea that Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania are in play?

Are their any poll numbers that back that up?
 
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