Gravis Post-Debate Poll: Trump +4 -- Undecideds Go to Trump Over Hillary 34% to 5%

Althea said:
Gallup: Romney extends lead over Obama to 5 points

October 29, 2012, 06:27 pm

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/264683-gallup-romney-extends-lead-over-obama-nationally
Click to expand...

you don't understand probability. You are trying to imply that because Romney was ahead and eventually lost that this means trump will eventually lose. Meanwhile you could just as easily say because Clinton is up +2 nationally that she will end up losing. Additionally if romney is say 30% to win and loses, that doesn't mean he would lose in every iteration of an election. It's like saying there is a 30% chance a 2 or a 4 can be rolled with a die and then having an insufferably smug look if you roll a 6 or something, as if that negates that a 2 or 4 could ever come up. Nate Silver currently has Trump at 45% to win the election, that is a virtual coinflip.

Please educate yourself on what probability actually is and how polls actually work.
 
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