Going short. All in

I bought AT&T and Wells Fargo today both down a couple percent.
So in a way we are both doing the same thing.
Buy low
Sell high
 
The Dude said:
I do know what he does as well as 20 other top billionaire investors.
I use those picks with standard and poorest rankings and my own opinions to pick from 20 blue chip stocks.
I do sell about 20 percent frequently in and out.
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Can't retire until you're 65 ?.....Poor Dude...
 
The Dude said:
I bought AT&T and Wells Fargo today both down a couple percent.
So in a way we are both doing the same thing.
Buy low
Sell high
Click to expand...

We are both doing the same thing except, you are kind of guessing where to buy. The charts on these two indicate there may be better spots to buy. I am not doubting they are good companies, I just like to try to pick better spots. The only reason I gave up stocks for ETFs is that I can spread my risk and there are fewer for me to watch.

But, your way works too, but I think if you would start dabbling in some technical analysis you could improve your ROI
 
Teflon Don said:
Nothing oujii board about reading charts.

If you notice, I have been dead on balls accurate so far this year
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I stopped tracking you last year when you missed 6 of 7 short calls.
Tech analysis is real because many do it.
All I'm saying is the most successful investors don't do it.
 
The Dude said:
I stopped tracking you last year when you missed 6 of 7 short calls.
Tech analysis is real because many do it.
All I'm saying is the most successful investors don't do it.
Click to expand...

I didn't miss 6 of 7 in 2013. I only made four. Missed 3

And many successful investors do it. But, we will have to agree to disagree. Bottom line is I am up for 2014 and I was up for 2013 so it is hard to argue with that. Those who are just buying and holding are down for the year.

As for being a oujii board, you claim to trade various individual stocks throughout the year. If you aren't using technical analysis and looking at charts then that is just guessing. I am not saying that technical analysis is right all of the time. It it isn't just reading the chart that makes on successful it is managing the trade. That is the important thing. That is why I don't worry about getting 39% of them wrong. Because I know that when I do get them right, my gains are going to outstrip my losses because I always manage my downside risk.

Your approach seems to be much more guesswork. Your entire approach to Apple is buy at its peak. Watch it fall to below $500 then hope it climbs back to $700. That is more guessing than what I do. Again, it isn't a comment on whether or not Apple is a great company or not. They sure enough are, but right now the price doesn't reflect that and in my view if you are buying high and riding it down waiting for it to go back up that isn't smart money management
 
Guesswork
Just because a stock moved one way is no guarantee it's going to keep going.
Yours is way more guess.
I'm looking at individual stocks pe growth rate etc.
 
The Dude said:
Guesswork
Just because a stock moved one way is no guarantee it's going to keep going.
Yours is way more guess.
I'm looking at individual stocks pe growth rate etc.
Click to expand...

I agree, there are never any guarantees. If there were, nobody would lose money in the market.

I am not saying the companies you invest in are bad or that you can't make money investing in those companies. What I am saying is that you can only augment your investing by incorporating some technical analysis and picking the right time to buy. Even you have to admit, there are right times to buy a stock and wrong times to buy a stock.

Apple is a perfect example. Great company, I love them. Own just about everything they sell. But, buying the stock at $700 was a wrong time to buy. Sure, fundamental analysis says it was a buy, and that is true. But, technical analysis (which I pointed out) indicated that it was reaching resistance. Technical analysis turned out to be correct.

So the question isn't whether or not to invest in Apple. That is a given. The question is when to pull the trigger. Do you pull the trigger when the stock is trading at an all time high? Maybe. Or do you wait for another trading opportunity? I prefer the latter.

Now, I readily admit, I don't have time for fundamental analysis. I don't want to read annual reports. Ain't nobody got time for dat. But, what I do have time for is looking at the chart of the S&P 500. It is much easier and I can go long and short using ETFs without trying to short an individual stock which is dangerous.

So I am not trying to say you should abandon investing in the companies you are buying. It is obviously working, but would I am suggesting is that you think about adding some technical analysis to your tool kit and you might see better returns. FWIW, I think Apple is a low risk trade at $500, but waiting for it to level off.

As for your contention that investors don't make money trading, that is incorrect. Lots of people do. I know some folks that only trade Forex. Not for me, although I did take a small position in the Canadian dollar.
 
A lot of this volatility is due to the Olympics. Whispers of an 'attack' during the games are catching fire and spreading. Most likely just paranoia, but with the problems Russia faces, can't ignore it completely.
 
Jarod said:
Dead cat or bounce back?
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200 day moving average for S&P is at about 1708... looks like it will hold above that level, which would suggest a return to upward momentum. If it breaks and holds under that level for a few days, that would not be good for the short term. Long term fundamentals look pretty good. Due to the movement the last couple of weeks, the technical indicators are negative right now across the board.

I think this is just a healthy pullback.
 
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