Gas Prices

The forecast for total world oil consumption grows by an annual average of 1.6 million bbl/d through 2012.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/steo/

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, China's growing energy appetites will account for about 40 percent of increased world demand this year. China will boost oil consumption this year by another 600,000 barrels per day. The U.S. will increase consumption by 130,000 barrels per day.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=13302530
 
Oh now your backtracking SF we might see demand destruction, sure we might. Link me where we are cause it ain't happening now mr old school.
 
Topspin said:
Oh now your backtracking SF we might see demand destruction, sure we might. Link me where we are cause it ain't happening now mr old school.
Click to expand...

If you had any clue as to how consumers react to changes in prices you would realize all the data you need was in the four links I provided, which you clearly either did not read or were too much of a GEDer to understand.

I did not say it was happening RIGHT now. I said IF prices remain at these levels of $100/brl and $3.75 gas/gallon then demand destruction will again take place.

I would love for you to show how I am backtracking by stating that. It is what I have said all along. $4 is unsustainable.

Demand destruction does not occur overnight. In February, average oil price for the month was $88/brl. Which is a level where gas went up over $3 and hung around the $3.10 level for most of Feb. Now tell us toppy, is that the $4 level I was referring to? Is that the $100+/brl I was referring to when I mentioned demand destruction?

Are you capable of actually comprehending this very very simply economic lesson toppy?
 
We are watching.... and we are already seeing signs of demand destruction. The longer oil stays above fair value, the more destruction we will see in demand.


your an asshole who can never admit to being wrong.
 
Topspin said:
we could go down a couple percent while world consumption still goes up.
Click to expand...

WHO is 'we'????

Do you think it is just the US that will be affected? Do you honestly believe it will hurt consumption in the wealthiest nation on earth, but not in other countries (say for example those that already pay TWICE what we do for gas)?

It is WORLDWIDE DEMAND DESTRUCTION that we saw previously. Granted China and India's governments subsidized the oil price increases last time, but that is not sustainable for any lengthy period of time. In 2008 India spent about $20B subsidizing the high oil for their citizens. Their entire yearly budget is about $60B... do you think spending a third of their annual budget to subsidize oil is sustainable toppy?
 
Refiners in China today got a much-needed boost today as officials said they’d allow gas prices to rise

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfun...r-gas-price-hike-inflation-projection-hits-6/

While predicting the future of gas prices is not an exact science, Right said all of his reliable sources, including the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration, are projecting fuel costs will rise this year.

“Unfortunately, gas prices will likely go up,” Right said. “There’s about a 25-percent chance that we’ll hit $4 a gallon over the summer.”

The reason gas prices are up is because the crude oil is more expensive, Right said. Crude oil is selling at roughly $105 per barrel now, compared to last year at the time when it sold at $82 per barrel.

“Crude oil prices are rising because of the anticipated increase in demand from China and India — countries that are seeing a quicker recovery from the recession,” he said.

http://stpeters.patch.com/articles/pain-at-the-pump-gas-prices-expected-to-rise-15
 
Topspin said:
We are watching.... and we are already seeing signs of demand destruction. The longer oil stays above fair value, the more destruction we will see in demand.


your an asshole who can never admit to being wrong.
Click to expand...

yes, we are already seeing SIGNS of demand destruction. That doesn't mean it is showing up in the numbers. But we are already hearing and seeing consumers talking about pulling back. Traveling less, driving less etc... that is a sign that demand destruction is already taking place. We have NOT seen the reports on world consumption for March yet as they are not yet available. But we are absolutely seeing signs that consumers are going to respond more quickly this time. They know the economy is weaker, many are feeling the pinch faster this time because they ate through savings due to higher unemployment etc... now than what we saw in 2008.
 
you said we are already seeing signs of demand destruction. I can't find them and your not providing them.

$4 gallon won't do it, $5 prob would

Of course I was yanking chains on $5 not doing a lot of damage. Demand didn't go down all that much during the last shock and like I said check the mpg on an crossover or a mustang now vs 2008
 
Canada seems to be recovering fine and I think gasoline is currently about $4.50/gal up there, at least in Ontario.
 
King of Gods said:
Canada seems to be recovering fine and I think gasoline is currently about $4.50/gal up there, at least in Ontario.
Click to expand...

We are talking about world wide demand. Different countries have different inflection points when it comes to price of gas. On average, US per capita driving is about 15,000 miles per year. In Canada it is about 10,000. Thus as a percent of income it is about the same when they are at $4.50 and we are at $3.00. It is not an exact science by any means, but the less you drive the higher the inflection point will be... whether we are talking on an individual basis or on a country basis.

Use Mott's earlier example.... if he drives 3000 miles in a year and you drive 15000... who is going to be impacted more severely by rising prices?
 
Economist have seen the high gas price and still have GDP above 2percent. Obviously not destroyed
 
Topspin said:
Economist have seen the high gas price and still have GDP above 2percent. Obviously not destroyed
Click to expand...

Yes, as economists have viewed the rise in oil prices, they have LOWERED the GDP forecasts to 2 percent. The longer oil prices persist at these levels, the more you will see economists continue to lower GDP estimates. Thanks for pointing out that economists are lowering forecasted growth rates due to the high prices.
 
Topspin said:
I'm saying your wrong on destroying the economy. Unless you thin 2 percent is destroyed.
Click to expand...

What were those estimates prior to February toppy? It was 3% for the US. So with only ONE month of gas prices averaging over $100/brl.... they have already slashed GDP growth by 33%. Do you think that will help or hurt the employment situation toppy? ONE month and a THIRD of estimated growth is projected to be gone. THAT is demand destruction. Do you honestly think they are going to leave growth estimates at 2% if we continue to see high gas prices?
 
I filled up in Seattle yesterday and it was $3.99/gal for regular. It cost nearly $50 to fill up my Scion xD. Terrible.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top