Diogenes
Nemo me impune lacessit
Did your dead cat tell you to say that without explaining how or why @Kurmugeon is supposedly "delusional"?
Gas prices, Inflation, CPI ALL LOWER IN FEBRUARY. Economy Already Better
- Thread starter Grokmaster
- Start date
Did your dead cat tell you to say that without explaining how or why @Kurmugeon is supposedly "delusional"?
Diogenes
Nemo me impune lacessit
Oil prices did indeed spike when the Biden administration imposed tougher sanctions on Russia’s oil sector in January 2025, but the increase wasn’t solely due to Wall Street hitting the futures market for no reason. Several factors tied to the sanctions themselves contributed to the price surge, alongside market dynamics.
On January 10, 2025, the Biden administration announced sweeping sanctions targeting Russia’s oil industry, including major producers like Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as well as nearly 200 tankers in Russia’s "shadow fleet." These measures aimed to disrupt Russia’s oil exports, a key revenue source for its war in Ukraine. Following the announcement, Brent crude futures jumped 3.7% to $79.76 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 3.6% to $76.57, hitting three-month highs. Prices climbed further in the days after, with Brent reaching $81.01 and WTI $78.82 by January 13—four-month peaks.
The sanctions directly threatened supply. They targeted vessels that transported about 1.7 million barrels per day of Russian oil in 2024, roughly 25% of Russia’s exports. Major buyers like India and China, who had relied on discounted Russian crude, began shunning sanctioned tankers, forcing them to seek alternatives. This scramble tightened global supply expectations, especially as Russia’s ability to reroute oil via non-sanctioned ships was uncertain. Analysts noted genuine fears of disruption, with some estimating a potential loss of nearly 1 million barrels per day if the sanctions fully bit.
Wall Street and the futures market amplified this. Traders reacted swiftly, bidding up prices as news broke and an unverified sanctions document circulated in Europe and Asia. The futures markets' time spreads—premiums of front-month contracts over later ones—soared to multi-month highs, signaling immediate supply concerns. Speculators also raised net long positions in U.S. crude futures by over 8,000 contracts in the week to January 14, reflecting bullish bets on higher prices. However, this wasn’t baseless speculation—market participants were pricing in a tangible risk premium tied to the sanctions’ impact.
Other factors played a role too. Extreme cold in the U.S. and Europe boosted heating oil demand, pushing diesel futures up 5.1% to a six-month high of $105.07 per barrel on January 10. Yet, the sanctions were the primary driver, with oil prices cooling slightly later (e.g., Brent dipping to $80.15 by January 20) as markets awaited Trump’s policy signals after his inauguration.
So, no, the spike wasn’t just Wall Street arbitrarily juicing the futures market. It reflected real supply disruption fears from the sanctions, compounded by demand pressures and trader reactions. That said, the futures markets' sensitivity can exaggerate moves—sanctions didn’t immediately halt all Russian oil, and some analysts argued flows might adapt using non-sanctioned tankers. Still, the initial price jump had a clear basis beyond mere speculation.
@Grok
On the supply side, the market has been oversupplied, exacerbating the price drop. OPEC+ announced plans to unwind voluntary production cuts starting in April 2025, adding 138,000 barrels per day initially, with non-OPEC+ production (e.g., from the Americas) also rising by 1.5 mb/d in 2025. This supply increase, against a backdrop of sluggish demand, aligns with forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and others predicting a surplus in 2025, pushing prices down to levels like the $66/bbl Althea mentioned.
Additionally, external factors like U.S. tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, implemented in early March 2025, have raised fears of an economic slowdown, further dampening demand expectations.
So, while global demand isn’t entirely stagnant—it’s growing slowly—the lack of a significant increase, combined with rising supply and economic headwinds, supports the observation that oil prices crashed to around $66 per barrel two days ago. The term "crashed" fits given the rapid decline from earlier 2025 levels, even if it’s not a historic low.
@Grok
To determine whether gasoline prices are "down to pre-Trump levels" and whether President Trump "has done nothing to reduce the price of anything," we need to look at available data and context as of March 16, 2025. Let’s break this down step-by-step.
Gasoline Prices: Are They Down to Pre-Trump Levels?
"Pre-Trump levels" typically refers to gasoline prices before Donald Trump’s first term began on January 20, 2017. We can use historical data to establish a baseline and compare it to current prices.
- January 2017 (Pre-Trump Baseline): According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the national average price for regular gasoline in January 2017 was approximately $2.34 per gallon. This reflects the price when Trump took office during his first term.
- Current Prices (March 16, 2025): Recent data from AAA indicates that the national average price for regular gasoline is around $3.08 per gallon as of mid-March 2025. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook and other sources like GasBuddy align with this, reporting prices in the $3.00–$3.10 range recently.
- $3.08 (March 2025) is significantly higher than $2.34 (January 2017), a difference of about $0.74 per gallon.
- Even adjusting for inflation (using the U.S. dollar value from 2017 to 2025), $2.34 in 2017 would be roughly $2.90–$3.00 in 2025 dollars, depending on the inflation calculator. Current prices of $3.08 still exceed this adjusted figure slightly.
- During Trump’s first term (2017–2021), prices fluctuated. They rose to about $2.80–$2.90 in 2018–2019, dropped sharply to around $2.17 in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and began rising again to $2.50–$2.60 by January 2021 when he left office.
- Post-Trump, prices spiked to over $5.00 per gallon in mid-2022 (under Biden before declining to the current $3.08 range.
Has Trump Done Nothing to Reduce Prices?
Trump assumed office for his second term on January 20, 2025. Assessing his impact on gasoline prices or other costs as of March 16, 2025 (less than two months into his term) requires examining his actions and their potential effects, alongside market trends.
- Policy Proposals: Trump has promised to boost domestic oil production through deregulation and tax cuts for producers, as announced in February 2025. However, these measures take time to affect supply and prices—often years—due to the lag in exploration, drilling, and refining capacity expansion. No significant production increase has been reported yet per EIA forecasts (13.5 million barrels/day in 2025, plateauing from late 2024).
- Evidence of Impact:
- From January 20, 2025 ($3.10–$3.15 per AAA) to March 16, 2025 ($3.08), prices have edged down slightly (2–5 cents).
It is accurate to state that gasoline prices are not down to pre-Trump levels (January 2017’s $2.34, or ~$2.90–$3.00 adjusted for inflation) as of March 16, 2025, with current prices at $3.08. It’s also mostly accurate to say Trump “has done nothing to reduce the price of anything” regarding gasoline, given no measurable impact from his actions yet, and his broader policies’ effects are still pending.
@Grok
No, that claim isn’t fully supported by evidence.
Trump’s policies, like tax cuts (e.g., the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) and deregulation, were pitched as pro-growth moves, aiming to boost businesses and investment. The economy saw GDP growth of 2.3% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018, unemployment hit a 50-year low of 3.5% in 2019, and stock markets climbed.
Critics argue these benefited the wealthy disproportionately—top 1% saw bigger tax breaks—and added $1.9 trillion to the deficit per CBO estimates, which could hurt long-term stability.
But "all aimed at destroying the economy" overstates it; the intent, at least on paper, was growth, not collapse.
Personal gain is trickier—his businesses likely benefited indirectly (e.g., Trump Organization tax savings), but there’s no hard proof tying every policy to his wallet.
Hyperbole aside, the reality’s more mixed: some policies juiced short-term gains, others risked long-term pain, and self-interest probably played a role, but "destroying" for profit doesn’t fully hold up.
@Grok
They why did Biden order the killing of 10s of millions of healthy chickens?
And then, the Lefties everywhere, started a massive Blame Campaign, centered on the price of Eggs.
Clearly, the Lefties are creating a crisis, and then blame it on their political opponents.
The Left are SCUM!
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Diogenes
Nemo me impune lacessit
In response to the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak that began in 2022.
The USDA, under long-standing federal policy, requires the depopulation—or culling—of entire poultry flocks when HPAI is detected on a farm.
This "stamping-out" approach aims to prevent the spread of the virus, which is deadly to birds (90-100% mortality rate within 48 hours) and can devastate the poultry industry if unchecked.
Since 2022, over 100 million birds—mostly egg-laying chickens—have been affected, either dying from the virus or being culled to contain outbreaks.
This policy wasn’t unique to Biden’s administration; it was also enforced during previous administrations, including Trump’s first term and Obama’s tenure, notably during a 2015 outbreak.
The narrative that these were "healthy" chickens often overlooks the context: the USDA culls entire flocks, even if only a few birds test positive, because the virus spreads rapidly and waiting for symptoms risks further transmission.
Critics, including some public figures, have claimed this included unnecessary slaughter of uninfected birds, but the USDA’s protocol prioritizes containment over selective culling, as the diseases' contagiousness leaves little room for delay.
Farmers report outbreaks, and the USDA steps in to depopulate and compensate them, a process governed by the Animal Health Protection Act of 2002.
@Grok
Tbird19482
Verified User
Link please.
Current Situation: Bird Flu in Wild Birds
Summarizes the current avian influenza situation both domestically in the U.S. and globally.
www.cdc.gov
Biden admin ordered slaughter of 150 million chickens, Musk reports
CV NEWS FEED // Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) chief Elon Musk accused the Biden administration of ordering the mass slaughter of 150 million egg-laying chickens,…
catholicvote.org
What the White House meant when it said Biden directed the mass killing of 100 million chickens
New York (CNN) — At her first White House briefing, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt made an unusual claim about the inflation that has stung American shoppers for years: Leavitt said
The egg farmers forced to destroy their flocks, repeatedly told the FDA, that THEIR populations of chickens passed the tests for Avian Flu.
The Biden set policy, was that if the FDA found one dead chicken with Avian Flu in a particular area, all Chicken within a hundreds of mile radius from that site, would need to be destroyed.
Scientists responsible for tracking and limiting Avian Flu, told the FDA over and over, the spread of Avian Flu is coming from the migrations of Wilde Ducks, and Geese, and their migration routes are so wide spread and intermingled, Killing all the Chickens within a Radius of the rare detected case will do nothing to stop the spread of the pathogen. The spread being driven by the migrations, causes the pathogen to be found at one chicken farm, and then another, 100s of miles apart, while skipping the populations of Chicken Farms in between. IAW, until the pathogen is actually found at a particular farm, it is scientifically senseless to kill off any particular farms chicken population.
About the only thing that could be done to impact the spread, would be massive poison or explosives terminations of wilde Duck and Geese populations, which I know of no one who supports such an approach.
Furthermore, the FDA has authorized the production of the Avian Flu Chicken-Vaccine in the USA, but does not allow USA chicken farmers to use that Vaccine, it is exported for foreign countries.
What the Biden FDA should have done, is authorized the use of the Avian Flu vaccines, for at least a part of the Chicken farmers population. Because the vaccine is new, it might have been wise to limit the initial few years of the vaccine use to just half of the Chicken Farms populations, with monitoring. That way, if there was something wrong with the vaccine, which has been in use for years now, with American MADE vaccines, the effects would be limited.
But the Biden FDA did not use the wise course, they chose to kill silly high numbers of chickens, without scientific justification, and use the high egg prices as a Political-Economic-Wedge Issue.
The Lefties are Manipulative and Evil.
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Tbird19482
Verified User
So it wasn't Biden that told them to kill all those chickens but the the Department of Agriculture.
What the White House meant when it said Biden directed the mass killing of 100 million chickens
New York (CNN) — At her first White House briefing, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt made an unusual claim about the inflation that has stung American shoppers for years: Leavitt saidwww.wsiltv.com
The egg farmers forced to destroy their flocks, repeated told the FDA, that THEIR populations of chickens passed the tests for Avian Flu.
The Biden set policy, was that if the FDA found one dead chicken with Avian Flu in a particular area, all Chicken within a hundreds of mile radius from that site, would need to be destroyed.
Scientists responsible for tracking and limiting Avian Flu, told the FDA over and over, the spread of Avian Flu is coming from the migrations of Wilde Ducks, and Geese, and their migration routes are so wide spread and intermingled, Killing all the Chickens within a Radius of the rare detected case will do nothing to stop the spread of the pathogen. The spread being driven by the migrations, causes the pathogen to be found at one chicken farm, and then another, 100s of miles away, while skipping the populations of Chicken Farms in between. IAW, until the pathogen is actually found at a particular farm, it is scientifically senseless to kill off any particular farms population.
About the only thing that could be done to impact the spread, would be massive terminations of wilde Duck and Geese populations, which I know of no one who supports such an approach.
Furthermore, the FDA has authorized the production of the Avian Flu Chicken-Vaccine in the USA, but does not allow USA chicken farmers to use that Vaccine, it is exported for foreign countries.
What the Biden FDA should have done, is authorized the use of the Avian Flu vaccines, for at least a part of the Chicken farmers population. Because the vaccine is new, it might have been wise to limit the initial few years of the vaccine use to just half of the Chicken Farms populations, with monitoring. That way, if there was something wrong with the vaccine, which has been in use for years now, with American MADE vaccines, the effects would be limited.
But the Biden FDA did not use the wise course, they chose to kill silly high numbers of chickens, and use the high egg prices as a Political-Economic-Wedge Issue.
The Lefties are Evil.
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Why would a president go against people that know more about the subject then he does?
And I am sure the people at the the Department of Agriculture know a lot more about the bird flu and raising chickens then Biden does.
Wrong.
The FDA wanted to stop the stupid culling before evidence of local contagion policy, but Biden Admin directed them to kill the birds anyway.
Biden also blocked the use of the Vaccine by American Chicken Farmers. Biden was Anti-Vax.
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Tbird19482
Verified User
So they should just let it go and effect and possibly kill many types of other birds, pigs, cats , dogs, even cows and PEOPLE?
https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/virus-transmission/index.html .
No killing off chickens and paying more for eggs is better then having people get it and dying.
Here are articles about the use of the Avian Flu Vaccine in foreign countries, and info about why we are not using it in America:
www.newsweek.com
Here is a list of the Avian Flu Chicken Vaccine use by country:
www.unmc.edu
Note that many of the countries from which we are now importing large numbers of tonnes of chicken eggs, are on the above list. I guess it works!
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Why is the US not vaccinating poultry against bird flu?
Trade concerns and logistical challenges leave the U.S. lagging behind in bird flu vaccination efforts
www.newsweek.com
Here is a list of the Avian Flu Chicken Vaccine use by country:
Bird flu vaccination policies by country
(Reuters) A growing number of countries are turning to vaccinations against avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu, to stem one of the world’s worst outbreaks of the deadly vir…
www.unmc.edu
Note that many of the countries from which we are now importing large numbers of tonnes of chicken eggs, are on the above list. I guess it works!
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Do you goofball Trumpys really believe he is making things better? The self delusion of Trumpys is impressive.