Gallup Poll, Romney up by 6...

Jarod

Jarod

Well-known member
Contributor
Is this an outlier or a bump or does it reflect a true uptick in the election for Gov. Romney?

I am anxious to see if the other polling orginizations reflect that uptick in the comming days or if Gallup drops and falls back in line with the other polling data.

It might be good news for the Romney team and as I see it dissapointing news for The President and America.
 
Jarod said:
Is this an outlier or a bump or does it reflect a true uptick in the election for Gov. Romney?

I am anxious to see if the other polling orginizations reflect that uptick in the comming days or if Gallup drops and falls back in line with the other polling data.

It might be good news for the Romney team and as I see it dissapointing news for The President and America.
Click to expand...

As we get closer to the election the true numbers will start to show.
 
the gallup poll is outside the margin of error, which is even more significant

But it's a national poll.

It's certainly a good general bell weather though. If I am not mistaken, no one has ever been over 50% with likely voters nationally and gone on to lose the election.

If obama ends up winning, he'll be doing so by defying a fuckton of old metrics used to judge elections.

Job approval, unemployment, country going in the wrong direction, being behind in likely voters, etc.

The good news for Obamabots is that he still has a razor thin lead (inside margin of error) in ohio which is basically what can help stop romney

we ver well could have another popular vote/ vs. electoral vote scenario on our horizon.

This election is very volatile. Election night is going to rock.
 
Gallup is a significant outlier at this point. That doesn't mean it's wrong, but it isn't consistent with other polling results.
 
Q _ Q said:
the gallup poll is outside the margin of error, which is even more significant

But it's a national poll.

It's certainly a good general bell weather though. If I am not mistaken, no one has ever been over 50% with likely voters nationally and gone on to lose the election.

If obama ends up winning, he'll be doing so by defying a fuckton of old metrics used to judge elections.

Job approval, unemployment, country going in the wrong direction, being behind in likely voters, etc.

The good news for Obamabots is that he still has a razor thin lead (inside margin of error) in ohio which is basically what can help stop romney

we ver well could have another popular vote/ vs. electoral vote scenario on our horizon.

This election is very volatile. Election night is going to rock.
Click to expand...

Nope. Election night will be over early. I don't think Ohio is close. But that is my gut feel. Regardless, at this point Romney doesn't even need Ohio.

The election is over. Romney has won
 
I dont believe in gut, i believe in numbers.

Here is what is going good for Romney right now,
(I am using rasmuessen data because it was the most accurate in 2008 and also consistently polls likely voters)

NC is almost locked up for him
Virginia is close but he's ahead
Florida he is pulling away.
Colorado razor thin lead

There are some other factors that help him. Undecided voters in these type of elections tend to break overwhelmingly for the challenger.

However even if he wins every single one above, he still needs ohio, or it's a tough track to victory.

If he loses ohio, his only other realistic path is winning:

Nevada (he's down 3, undecideds make up 3%. So even if he were to win 100% of undecideds breaking for him, he would only be tied)
Iowa (down 2% last I checked)
New hampshire. (down 1%, with 1% undecided likely voters)

The above 3 are, once again, inside the margin of error. So it's almost stupid to try and predict how they'll swing.

But make no mistake, ohio makes things waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay easier.

Ohio he is down around ~1 point. with about 2% undecided.

You can also throw in a random wild card like wisconsin, who had really awesome turnout for the tea party in 2010 and obviously smashed with the recent recall election. He's down 2% in wisconsin as well.
 
Dont forget Gary Johnson who is not included in most polls but who will draw votes mostly from Romney.
 
Romney went up to 7 in todays Gallup poll, tomorrow the post debate numbers start being added in.
 
jarod the above data already takes an "other" candidate into account. (2% for most states)

you could also switch that around to imply that some that are voting libetarian but hate obama may break at the last minute for romney.

but that's just speculation
 
Gallup's result are pretty weird over the past few days. Again, not saying that they are wrong, just that they are different. Among registered voters, the race tightened (Obama +1) but among likely voters Romney has increased his lead (+1).

Also, yesterdays results show Obama winning in the East (+4), Midwest (+4) and West (+6), while getting trounced in the South (-22).

Weird.

I guess we'll see whether Gallup is right in a few weeks.
 
Jarod said:
Dont forget Gary Johnson who is not included in most polls but who will draw votes mostly from Romney.
Click to expand...

As election night gets closer, those contemplating a Johnson vote will in most cases realize that to waste their vote to make some sort of statement is
truly a wasted vote...
 
General Buck Turgidson said:
Gallup's result are pretty weird over the past few days. Again, not saying that they are wrong, just that they are different. Among registered voters, the race tightened (Obama +1) but among likely voters Romney has increased his lead (+1).

Also, yesterdays results show Obama winning in the East (+4), Midwest (+4) and West (+6), while getting trounced in the South (-22).

Weird.

I guess we'll see whether Gallup is right in a few weeks.
Click to expand...

Registered voters != those that will vote on election day. Polls of registered voters skew liberal, because there are large demographics that are registered but almost never turn out (the youth/the poor) and higher turn out on the conservative side (old people)
 
Q _ Q said:
Registered voters != those that will vote on election day. Polls of registered voters skew liberal, because there are large demographics that are registered but almost never turn out (the youth/the poor) and higher turn out on the conservative side (old people)
Click to expand...

I understand the difference between likely and registered voters. My point is that one would think that the underlying trends would be similar for both. If Romeny were to gain ground in one, you would expect that he would gain ground in the other and vice versa. It's weird to see them go in opposite directions.

More interesting to me, though, is the geographic breakdown.
 
bravo said:
As election night gets closer, those contemplating a Johnson vote will in most cases realize that to waste their vote to make some sort of statement is
truly a wasted vote...
Click to expand...

You are an idiot. A vote is never wasted, no matter what your uneducated self states. It is the way we voice our opinions. It is the way we express our right as free people. This mentality that a vote is wasted is stupidity at its finest.
 
Rana said:
You are an idiot. A vote is never wasted, no matter what your uneducated self states. It is the way we voice our opinions. It is the way we express our right as free people. This mentality that a vote is wasted is stupidity at its finest.
Click to expand...

<translation>
GAWD I hope that a large number of people vote for third party candidates; because maybe this will give Obama a chance to fool everyone else.
</translation>
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top