In “Preparing For Defeat,” reformed NeoCon, Francis Fukuyama, predicts that a new 1989 is coming:
1. Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent… Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle.
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2. The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition.
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5. The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone or help transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own
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7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army.
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8. The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world… [like] Trump
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9. The war to this point has been a good lesson for China… The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations.
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12. A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.
eat it T**** - sucking up to dictators is never a good idea, like instigating insurrections in DC for example
