Fed Day

[goat]

You started out by claiming:

Now you are saying that there is a decline in tractor sales in 2025... Which actually is true, but does not prove that soybean production ended 17 years earlier.

Senator Chuck Grassley, Senator Joni Ernst, and many other red state farm owner politicians will make sure their state receives a federal welfare package before the 2026 election even though they know the market is gone and not coming back.

Most of that welfare will go to corporate farmers. Is that socialism or fascism? The Bank of North Dakota is of and for the family farm.

 

[Walt]

Senator Chuck Grassley, Senator Joni Ernst, and many other red state farm owner politicians will make sure their state receives a federal welfare package before the 2026 election even though they know the market is gone and not coming back.

trump was so sure that the rest of the world could not replace American agriculture... As it turns out, we were easy to replace.

It is still early, so we might be able to recover... But my guess is that it will just keep getting worse for at least a couple of years.

Is that socialism or fascism? The Bank of North Dakota is of and for the family farm.

I would not say fascism, but a retail bank owned by the government is socialism. It is definitely "of and for" the government. But it also supports the voters and those who the voters care about, which includes the family farms.

 

[goat]

trump was so sure that the rest of the world could not replace American agriculture... As it turns out, we were easy to replace.

It is still early, so we might be able to recover... But my guess is that it will just keep getting worse for at least a couple of years.


I would not say fascism, but a retail bank owned by the government is socialism. It is definitely "of and for" the government. But it also supports the voters and those who the voters care about, which includes the family farms.

Corporate farms are the new zombies of Wall Street. How many banks will close next year?

 

[Walt]

Corporate farms are the new zombies of Wall Street.

Name a few of the corporate farm corporations, and how they are doing. From my understanding, less than 2% of the farm land is owned by non-family corporate farms, and it is actually illegal in several states for non-family corporations to own farms. Corporations do everything they can think of to control farms, without owning them. This allows them to get around the laws, but also not to be responsible for the farm debts.

Which means the Wall Street corporations that control farms are insulated from farm failures. The ones that supply equipment and materials to farms may well be screwed, but the corporate farms have figured out ways to leave families on the hook for the debts.

How many banks will close next year?

The banks are not directly on the line for any of the pain points, so I doubt many, or even any will close in the next year. The Fed is backing off stronger solvency requirements, so there may be fewer mergers than we would have seen. Banks will of course be hit indirectly, but that takes time, and will not happen in 2026.

 

[goat]

Name a few of the corporate farm corporations, and how they are doing. From my understanding, less than 2% of the farm land is owned by non-family corporate farms, and it is actually illegal in several states for non-family corporations to own farms. Corporations do everything they can think of to control farms, without owning them. This allows them to get around the laws, but also not to be responsible for the farm debts.

Which means the Wall Street corporations that control farms are insulated from farm failures. The ones that supply equipment and materials to farms may well be screwed, but the corporate farms have figured out ways to leave families on the hook for the debts.


The banks are not directly on the line for any of the pain points, so I doubt many, or even any will close in the next year. The Fed is backing off stronger solvency requirements, so there may be fewer mergers than we would have seen. Banks will of course be hit indirectly, but that takes time, and will not happen in 2026.

What are farmers going to do with all that dirt they no longer grow soybean and corn on?

 

[Walt]

What are farmers going to do with all that dirt they no longer grow soybean and corn on?

I have a cousin who buys property in NJ that he plans on developing into houses, or commercial property. He was even doing some industrial development during the Biden years. Anyway, he will hold this property for 2 to 20 years before developing it, and does not want to pay a lot in property tax.

He found the lowest property tax he can pay is on agriculture land, so he turns his property in farms while he is holding it. He plants the cheapest, easiest corn on the property. At first he would harvest that corn and sell it for a few bucks, but he realized that the harvesting cost more than the corn was worth. To get the cheaper property taxes, he just had to plant the corn, not harvest it. So, now he just leaves the corn where it is, comes through the next year plowing it under, and planting a new crop of corn... That will never be harvested.

And if he chooses to develop the land that year, he just bulldozes the corn under, and starts building the McMansions.

If the Chinese are buying their soybeans from Australia, Brazil, or where ever, I assume the American soybean farmers will do the same... Except they would have needed the income from those farms. Oh well, I guess elections have consequences.