Fed Day

cawacko said:
With forward guidance we all have an idea of what the Fed will do next so that shouldn't stop people from having conversations if they so desire (even if they didn't offer forward guidance people could still speculate as to their next actions).

As far as voting members of FOMC, or other Fed insiders, doing inside trading I can't really speak to that. I'd think there would be pretty strong restrictions against it and hard to get away with it but I can't say one way or the other.

A lot of people don't believe the Fed should have moved forward with QE 2 and QE 3 (under Obama). The argument for why they did was the poor performance of the economy. So my issue with the idea of a level playing field is 1) it's bad policy - the Fed should not have kept rates as low as they did for as long as they did and 2) it's contradictory to claim we have a great economy while stating we should lower rates - if an economy can't sustain itself without additional monetary steroids from the Fed, is it really in all that great of condition?
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You're right, it shouldn't stop them from talking about the guidance and speculating on its repercussions.

Trump knew his economy would be compared to Obama's. He wanted THAT comparison to be apples to apples. At that point, his goal was equal political optics.

It seems that the gov't is unwilling or unable to regulate bureaucratic cronyism and nepotism.
 
Bigdog said:
You're right, it shouldn't stop them from talking about the guidance and speculating on its repercussions.

Trump knew his economy would be compared to Obama's. He wanted THAT comparison to be apples to apples. At that point, his goal was equal political optics.

It seems that the gov't is unwilling or unable to regulate bureaucratic cronyism and nepotism.
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The reality is the economy is always fluid otherwise we would keep rates at 2% (or pick a number) and never touch them. So there's never going to be a straight apples to apples comparison in that regard.

Presidents, and politicians, like easy money because they want the economy to look good while they are in office with little concern for the long term affects. Thus, in theory, why the Fed is supposed to be independent but we know that isn't always the case.
 
Justin Wolfers is a liberal economist. He's like Paul Krugman in that he's very smart but he's also very political and when you read him you're not sure if he's wearing his economist hat or political partisan one.

He called this a very dovish hike that he claimed eased credit conditions. He's also saying the Fed is forecasting a recession and therefore should stop hiking rates.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638610923475685378
 
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