Economists See Lower Recession Risk and Stronger Job Growth: WSJ Survey

Grokmaster said:
The "experts" forced to admit that they are wrong, while still trying to foment "gloom and doom" .


Economists See Lower Recession Risk and Stronger Job Growth: WSJ Survey​



The economic fallout from President Trump’s policies may prove less dire than feared.

Economists expect stronger growth and job creation, lower risk of recession and cooler inflation than they did three months ago, according to The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly survey of professional forecasters.


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“Despite numerous headwinds, the U.S. economy is proving stubbornly resilient,” said Chad Moutray, chief economist at the National Restaurant Association. “Consumers are continuing to spend, but the mood has clearly shifted from bold to careful.”

The survey gathered responses from 69 economists at outfits ranging from Wall Street banks to universities to small consulting firms from July 3 to July 8. Not every forecaster answered every question.

The improved outlook follows three months of generally encouraging economic data. Job growth averaged 150,000 in the past three months, better than projected in April, and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1% in June from 4.2% in May, staying within its range of the past year.





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In Quarter 2 (Q2) of 2025, the U.S. economy displayed greater strength than initial predictions suggested.
Key indicators
  • GDP Growth: Initially expected to slow significantly after a contraction in Q1, Q2 GDP growth estimates were revised upwards by analysts and economic models like the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow. For example, as of July 9, 2025, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimated a 2.6% growth rate for Q2.
  • Consumer Spending: A major driver of the US economy, consumer spending, particularly by households with rising real wages (wage growth outpacing inflation), contributed to the stronger-than-expected performance.
  • Fixed Investment: Early 2025 saw a strong increase in fixed investment, the fastest pace since mid-2023.
  • Trade: Businesses front-loaded imports to avoid the anticipated effects of new tariffs, which boosted economic activity in Q2, with subsequent revisions also showing positive exports and normalized imports.
 
Yes, reports indicate that inflation in the United States did decrease during the second quarter of 2025. Specifically, the annual consumer price index (CPI) fell to 2.3% in April, the lowest level since February 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, according to CNBC. This decline was driven by lower prices for energy, food, and some core goods and services.
 
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