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what exactly has obama done to make anything positive? and please cite specifically what he did that has made anything positive.
Economic forecasts improve
- Thread starter Onceler
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Like it or not, agree with it or not, he HAS taken a proactive approach to the crisis, starting w/ the stimulus, the bank plan & his budget.
You can say the latter 2 haven't even passed or been implemented yet, but the market's 500 pt. jump on Monday was a DIRECT result of the bank plan.
Topspin
Verified User
Spurt in a land of giants, your a midget.
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The Almighty
essentially the same bank plan Paulson originally proposed, then they recinded. The market rallied off of the news the last time as well. I agree it is a big part of why the market has rallied, but it is simply going to reverse if they don't follow through with implementation this time.
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The Almighty
LMAO... No dear toppy, it is not. Just ask all those who bought for the long term in 1997... on average they are flat to slightly negative.
Investing is making decisions on stocks, bonds, REITS, annuities, options etc...that will MAKE you money. In a bull market, the buy and hold approach certainly works. In a secular bear market it does not. Almost every bear market we have seen as been flat.... for periods between 8 and 20 years. Buy and hold during bear markets is NOT sound investing.
I don't really doubt that they're going to follow through, and I don't really care where the ideas for the plan came from. The market liked it; sometimes, there is no reason to re-invent the wheel.
I was responding to the inquiry of what specifically Obama has done as it relates to the economy, and the bank plan is part of that. I actually thought the question itself was kind of absurd.
Topspin
Verified User
Freak you could teach a class for sure. But I'm way to sophisticated to buy you or anybody else correctly timing the market. I always buy, when things get frothy I buy something else. So for the novices your investing 202 is a good lesson, for me you coils have saved that air for your deathbed.
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The Almighty
I wasn't intending to knock them for using the same plan... just pointing out that a very similar 'plan' was introduced before and the market responded just like it is now. I agree that they are likely going to follow through on it this time, but my point was that I am not going to get excited about it until it is in place.
I understood and agree with your second paragraph.
The goal should be to have a balanced portfolio. And you SHOULD be reviewing your investments regularly. (by regularly i mean 2x a year for most investors).
The point SF makes if very true. I started investing in 1997 when i graduated college and im down on what i put in. And for the first 7years I put in 25% of my salary.
will it come back? im sure it will eventually but at this point i cant really expect over a long run to gain more then an avg of like 6%... with a start like I had no way will i get a long term 8-9% annual return.
Meanwhile - I think about other things I can do. Like paying off my mortgage faster by not socking 25% of my salary away and only do 10 or 15%. having cash on hand if a opportunity comes up where i can make some money fast. Thinking about if inflation kicks in high gear getting some annuities or something.
Guy I work with that graduated with a Harvard Economic degree told me BEFORE this recession.. days of double digit growth are long gone until the baby boomers die.
The point SF makes if very true. I started investing in 1997 when i graduated college and im down on what i put in. And for the first 7years I put in 25% of my salary.
will it come back? im sure it will eventually but at this point i cant really expect over a long run to gain more then an avg of like 6%... with a start like I had no way will i get a long term 8-9% annual return.
Meanwhile - I think about other things I can do. Like paying off my mortgage faster by not socking 25% of my salary away and only do 10 or 15%. having cash on hand if a opportunity comes up where i can make some money fast. Thinking about if inflation kicks in high gear getting some annuities or something.
Guy I work with that graduated with a Harvard Economic degree told me BEFORE this recession.. days of double digit growth are long gone until the baby boomers die.
Topspin
Verified User
I don't consider investing and shut you eyes. I got out of the broad market about 02 even the pe was about 22. I bought chevron which was usually below 13. My hit was at the daytraders. You guys know I've sold things in days or hrs. But my goal is always double digits in a year, if I get it in hours or weeks I sell. That's not daytrading.
Also freak picking the top of the tech bubble and comparing it to the bottom of the housing bust doesn't fairly represent a typical decades return.
Also freak picking the top of the tech bubble and comparing it to the bottom of the housing bust doesn't fairly represent a typical decades return.
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The Almighty
Take a look at the Stock Traders Almanac...
1) From 1950-2007..... If you had started with $10k and invested each year from May 1st - October 31st each year and been in cash the remainder of each year.... your total investment would have grown to $11,021.... in 57 years.
Over the same period, had you invested that same $10k each year from Nov 1st to April 30th.... and been in cash the remainder of the year.... your investment would have grown to..... $541,000
2) From 9/2/97 until 5/1/08 the Dow jones rose 5388 points. If you had invested on the first trading day of each month and been in cash the rest of the month... you would have captured 5193 points.
Tell me... knowing just those two basic facts... wouldn't you trade on that type of information? And that is done without technicals. Those are just trends.
Granted, there is no perfect system out there. Our agressive technical portfolio was still down about 5% last year, our moderate about 11% down. But that sure as hell beats the crap out of losing 35-50% like a lot of people did.
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The Almighty
Whether or not it is "typical" doesn't change that it was a decade. You can beat "typical" without the emotion using technicals trading. I have seen the numbers, they are very real.
Look on the bright side... you only have to go up 1000% to get back to even.
nahh... i purchased a bunch of crap close to the bottom so im many cases my cost average is half of what it was. I did have some money on the side and also got a pension payout i used. so im currently only down 2/3rd'.. SO I need about 200% to be back to my peak. At my worst I was down 90% tho.
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The Almighty
Yeah, averaging costs can certainly reduce cost basis... I was simply being sarcastic.
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The Almighty
LMAO... Novice stats? So you know all about these basic trends and yet still do not see the benefits of trading off of information like them? As I stated, these are simply trends. They are derived from hard data. Why would you fight them?
True, you have seen what financial advisors are made of lately... most use the buy and hold approach that they grew up with during the great bull market and are shocked to find that it doesn't work during a secular bear market.
Side note... trading on techinicals and trends does not mean you have to be day trading.