Durable goods orders are up, home sales are stabilizing, the market is going into its 3rd week of upward trend:
http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/25/news/economy/ucla_forecast/index.htm?postversion=2009032504
I think it's going to be awfully difficult for conservatives who bought the "Obama recession" line from Rush to now argue that his plans had nothing to do w/ the recovery.
While I think the whole 'Obama recession' is a load of crap.... I would urge caution to anyone thinking about jumping in here with both feet.
What is driving this market over the past few weeks? It seems eerily familiar to what we were seeing in early October of last year....
Talk of buying up bad assets from the banks.... Oct... check... now... check
Talk of putting uptick back in place... Oct... check... now... check
Talk of temporarily suspending mark to market... Oct... check... now... check
Thus far, it is all talk. I want to see it implemented. This is not a knock on Obama or his plan, but we have heard most of this before from Paulson.
When you look at the state of the economy, we appear to be in a secular bear market. Look back to the 1930's or from 1966-1982.... there were a lot of rallies in those periods (some at 50%, 100%+) but each of the rallies during those periods subsequently gave everything back. Obviously none of us know how long we will be in this bear market, but buy and hold does not work well in this environment. Short term technicals favor equities, but long term are still very bearish.
The above is provided as food for thought...
