Democrats pull into lead for Congressional Election...

Jarod

Jarod

Well-known member
Contributor
Check out the chart re Congress...

The tide is turning...


Pollingreport.com
 
The Democrats are going to lose the House. There is no legitimate question as to that. None. The only questions remaining are (1) how badly are the Democrats going to lose and (2) will the Democrats lose the Senate too?

For fuck's sake, they won't even hold a vote on tax cuts. They deserve to lose. And they will. Handily.
 
NigelTufnel said:
The Democrats are going to lose the House. There is no legitimate question as to that. None. The only questions remaining are (1) how badly are the Democrats going to lose and (2) will the Democrats lose the Senate too?

For fuck's sake, they won't even hold a vote on tax cuts. They deserve to lose. And they will. Handily.
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I agree, when they have the ball in their court it is always a swing and a miss! Fools
 
Why would anyone even want the Dems to win at this point? If they do, they'll hang onto only the slimmest of majorities, so they'll still get the blame, and the GOP will still obstruct & try to sabotage everything.

If the GOP wins, at least their head will be in the game, and they'll have an interest in doing something besides winning elections.
 
Onceler said:
Why would anyone even want the Dems to win at this point? If they do, they'll hang onto only the slimmest of majorities, so they'll still get the blame, and the GOP will still obstruct & try to sabotage everything.

If the GOP wins, at least their head will be in the game, and they'll have an interest in doing something besides winning elections.
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Maybe, then, we can go back to working for a compromise and sanity? Am I too optimistic?
 
Onceler said:
Why would anyone even want the Dems to win at this point? If they do, they'll hang onto only the slimmest of majorities, so they'll still get the blame, and the GOP will still obstruct & try to sabotage everything.

If the GOP wins, at least their head will be in the game, and they'll have an interest in doing something besides winning elections.
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They will claim credit for the inevitable recovery.
 
If the poll numbers show consistent improvement or stabilize at this range I'm definitely not going to rule out the Democrats maintaining a slight majority. However, this trend is not holding at Rasmussen. Even if Rasmussen is biased towards the Republicans, I'd still expect them to trend in the same direction as Gallup. The fact that they are both doing different things just makes things muddy for me.
 
I think it'd be great if the Republicans got exactly 50 seats in the senate, minus Delaware, which would've been certain if O'Donnel hadn't won.
 
MakeMeASandwichBitch said:
If the poll numbers show consistent improvement or stabilize at this range I'm definitely not going to rule out the Democrats maintaining a slight majority. However, this trend is not holding at Rasmussen. Even if Rasmussen is biased towards the Republicans, I'd still expect them to trend in the same direction as Gallup. The fact that they are both doing different things just makes things muddy for me.
Click to expand...


At this point, it's pretty much all about the enthusiasm gap and Congressional Democrats are doing absolutely nothing to give people that are inclined to vote for them a reason to actually get out there and vote. Republicans, on the other hand, are fired up.

While Rasmussen does indeed favor Republicans when the polls are taken a long while before an election, as the election nears he tightens up his polling model to account for conditions on the ground. The closer we get to election day, the more accurate Rasmussen's polls will be. And, since the Democrats aren't giving people that Rasmussen discounts in his likely voter model (young, lower income, irregular voters) a reason to vote for them, I wouldn't discount Rasmussen's polling too much at this point.
 
I just dont want the R's to claim credit for the comming economic strengthening.
 
Jarod said:
I just dont want the R's to claim credit for the comming economic strengthening.
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It really depends. The Democrats aren't going to be significantly more powerful with 219 seats than with 210. And remember 1982? Great year for the Democrats. Reagan still set the tone for the decade.

However, the Republicans are brilliant and they're often able to capitalize on things much better than the Democrats. And they're base will believe anything they're told. I'd rather not give them the chance.
 
NigelTufnel said:
The Democrats are going to lose the House. There is no legitimate question as to that. None. The only questions remaining are (1) how badly are the Democrats going to lose and (2) will the Democrats lose the Senate too?

For fuck's sake, they won't even hold a vote on tax cuts. They deserve to lose. And they will. Handily.
Click to expand...

The economy would have to tank hard over the next six months for them to lose the Senate. (IMO)
 
MakeMeASandwichBitch said:
If the poll numbers show consistent improvement or stabilize at this range I'm definitely not going to rule out the Democrats maintaining a slight majority. However, this trend is not holding at Rasmussen. Even if Rasmussen is biased towards the Republicans, I'd still expect them to trend in the same direction as Gallup. The fact that they are both doing different things just makes things muddy for me.
Click to expand...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html

That shows a rough idea of the mess they are in. While anything is possible... that is a pretty big hole to climb out of in six weeks.
 
The site gives Miller a definite lead over both the others, this could get real interesting. I am registered non-declared because of our closed primary and I want to vote person,not party, so my phone has been ringing off the hook with calls by pollsters! It can get annoying!
 
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