Deep-Level Post Election Analysis and Myth Addressing by yours truly

B

BRUTALITOPS

on indefiniate mod break
Contributor
I know you guys better than you know yourselves, I anticipate your talking points and I will prove them wrong before you even open your mouths

I will be using exit polling data from the washingtonpost to assist me in my deep level analysis.
(https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/alabama-exit-polls/?utm_term=.b9b80683f111)

Myth 1 - This election was a referendum on Trump.

Incorrect. See this image:

kxyGN2E.png


According to the voters of this Alabama election, 51% said that trump had no bearing on their vote at all. 19% of jones voters said they voted in part due to anti-trump sentiment. 27% of Roy Moore voters said they voted out of support for trump. Overall, trump played very little role in this election, but to the extent that he did, it is clearly evident that it ended up in a net support of +8pts for Roy Moore. This is also relevant to Bannon. The GOPe is already trying to blame him, but given his strong ties to trump, again it should be patently evident that the Bannon/Trump coalition if anything helped Moore close the gap. Without trumps help, Moore likely would have lost by more points.

Myth 2 - This is a a win for the #Metoo pussyhatters

Again, according to the Washington Post exit poll data, voters declared:

Most said Moore allegations were not important factor in vote
a small majority of voters said the allegations were “a minor factor” or “not a factor” in their vote, while about 4 in 10 said the allegations were an important factor.

Under 1 in 10, notably, said the allegations against Moore were the single most important factor in their vote.
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To be fair, you did grab some of the electorate, but overall the majority of the electorate rejected your premise.


 
My deep level analysis aside, I will say congrats for pulling off the victory. That's tough to do in alabama, and I tip my hat to you. You guys kept your head down and pulled off a solid win.
 
So now you may find yourself asking "well shit, we won the election, but not for any of the reasons I actually believed in, that sucks! How can I get some sweet taunting in?"

Well in the spirit of good charity, I will help you with this, as I am a bragging and taunting expert.

I urge you to adopt my philosophy. Become just like me. Declare that winning is all that matters and the reasons are irrelevant. Then you can be all smiles, and it can't be taken away.

However if you persist in these myths, I will have no choice but to unleash my deep level analysis on you.
 
Thing1 said:
Paul Ryan. Still Speaker.
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you would be more effective if you were honest. Never claimed ryan would step down or be taken out. I only spoke to motive.

I really don't want to get into this ticky tack bullshit with you in this thread. Why can you never ever ever keep things on the level? I am really trying to just speak to the recent events. Please respect that.

Now, on to your first comment in this thread, given this election was really specifically about moore himself, I don't believe you can extrapolate this to 2018. Or, more precisely, use this election is a data point or part of a larger narrative. That isn't to say demcorats wont win in 2018, most outsider parties pick up seats. That's nothing new. But this election specifically wasn't about trump and a majority of the electorate also said this wasn't about the accusations. It was about about moore himself.
 
Imperator said:
you would be more effective if you were honest. Never claimed ryan would step down or be taken out. I only spoke to motive.

I really don't want to get into this ticky tack bullshit with you in this thread. Why can you never ever ever keep things on the level? I am really trying to just speak to the recent events. Please respect that.

Now, on to your first comment in this thread, given this election was really specifically about moore himself, I don't believe you can extrapolate this to 2018. Or, more precisely, use this election is a data point or part of a larger narrative. That isn't to say demcorats wont win in 2018, most outsider parties pick up seats. That's nothing new. But this election specifically wasn't about trump and a majority of the electorate also said this wasn't about the accusations. It was about about moore himself.
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A Democrat won a Senate seat in AL. You can say that Moore was a terrible candidate; I can say that about Hillary, but that didn't stop you from extrapolating miles from that one.

'18 is going to be a bad election for Trump. It's going to be a bad election for Bannon. Dem turnout was massive tonight. It will be massive in '18. Trump will be the best thing that ever happened to the Democrats, and one of the worst things to happen for the GOP.
 
Thing1 said:
Trump will be the best thing that ever happened to the Democrats, and one of the worst things to happen for the GOP.
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And so the pendulum swings. I have to agree.
Obama and hrc were the best thing that happened to the GOP and the worst for dims.
Repubs better nominate a challenger in '18.
 
Thing1 said:
A Democrat won a Senate seat in AL. You can say that Moore was a terrible candidate; I can say that about Hillary, but that didn't stop you from extrapolating miles from that one.

'18 is going to be a bad election for Trump. It's going to be a bad election for Bannon. Dem turnout was massive tonight. It will be massive in '18. Trump will be the best thing that ever happened to the Democrats, and one of the worst things to happen for the GOP.
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Whether or not this is true has no bearing on tonights election. The data is clear, trump helped moore.
 
I disagree with Point #2 Grind. Moore was the GOP nominee, and even though it was a messy 3-man race, it shows where the Republicans were at in the primary. If voters are claiming they rejected Moore for reasons other than his scandals, they are just being typical lying and duplicitous Alabubbans.
 
Threedee said:
I disagree with Point #2 Grind. Moore was the GOP nominee, and even though it was a messy 3-man race, it shows where the Republicans were at in the primary. If voters are claiming they rejected Moore for reasons other than his scandals, they are just being typical lying and duplicitous Alabubbans.
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There is no point in this data if people reject it when it presents inconvenient facts. This is what the electorate said, it's what we have to go on. Anything beyond that is merely speculation. There is no reason to call this data into question, because we have seen this before with moore. In 2012 he barely won his judiciary seat. So given he's already had a tough time with the alabama electorate in the past, it doesn't seem much of a stretch that this is simply par for the course for moore. He got basically slightly under his performance in 2012. So this isn't anything new for him.
 
Imperator said:
There is no point in this data if people reject it when it presents inconvenient facts. This is what the electorate said, it's what we have to go on. Anything beyond that is merely speculation. There is no reason to call this data into question, because we have seen this before with moore. In 2012 he barely won his judiciary seat. So given he's already had a tough time with the alabama electorate in the past, it doesn't seem much of a stretch that this is simply par for the course for moore. He got basically slightly under his performance in 2012. So this isn't anything new for him.
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Sorry if I don't take southerners at their word. Show me data from real Americans.
 
Threedee said:
Sorry if I don't take southerners at their word. Show me data from real Americans.
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If moore won a past election 65-35 or something you would have a point. But given that his last election in 2012 he only got 49% of the vote and barely won, that adds credibility to the exit poll data that it wasn't much of a factor. He didn't have some major drop off from last time he ran in an election. If these allegations did harm him significantly, his performance would have been much lower.
 
Imperator said:
If moore won a past election 65-35 or something you would have a point. But given that his last election in 2012 he only got 49% of the vote and barely won, that adds credibility to the exit poll data that it wasn't much of a factor. He didn't have some major drop off from last time he ran in an election. If these allegations did harm him significantly, his performance would have been much lower.
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Judicial positions are listed as non-partisan, so fewer people pay attention to them. Like I said, he was the GOP nominee a month ago.
 
Threedee said:
Judicial positions are listed as non-partisan, so fewer people pay attention to them. Like I said, he was the GOP nominee a month ago.
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they might be listed as non partisan but anyone that isn't retarded knows that's not the case.
 
Imperator said:
Whether or not this is true has no bearing on tonights election. The data is clear, trump helped moore.
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And how is that relevant to anything but ego anyway? You put too much into these things. Pointless friction over all these things has become such a bane to democracy. It's no longer about what's best, it's about scoring points for ones own. These frictions already show the idea of any in between is a pipe dream. It will just keep flip flopping from left to right. Clinton years, W Bush years, Obama years, now Trump. Of course it seems to be accelerating, and people are getting sick of a side faster. Probably because they have far more control to be judged on.
 
Jade Dragon said:
And how is that relevant to anything but ego anyway? You put too much into these things. Pointless friction over all these things has become such a bane to democracy. It's no longer about what's best, it's about scoring points for ones own. These frictions already show the idea of any in between is a pipe dream. It will just keep flip flopping from left to right. Clinton years, W Bush years, Obama years, now Trump. Of course it seems to be accelerating, and people are getting sick of a side faster. Probably because they have far more control to be judged on.
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there is a politico article that came out moments after moores loss talking about how this is a black eye for trump and a repudiation. this will be the mainstream narrative in the coming days, and it is flat out wrong. You can't call an election in which trump was an overall positive net effect for moore a repudiation of trump. the data simply does not add up to give one that conclusion. I hate propaganda and false naratives and emotional circlejerking absent of critical thought.
 
I will say you are right jade, in the fact that there is no hope for some type of idealism american future. I have long ago lost all faith in our institutions, and the mythology of the righteous politician. Politics is a zero sum game on which side can fuck the other side more. We are too divergent in our political philsophies as a nation and there is no meaningful middle ground to be had. (Nor is it desired) This is the bane of a strong federal government. The stakes have become too high because the prize is total control and domination and subjugation.
 
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