Deep Level Analysis - Trump is going to lose

B

BRUTALITOPS

on indefiniate mod break
Contributor
The democratic propaganda machine really works on the sheep.

Biden is leading too many polls in too many swing states, and this year we have a much small number of undecided voters which means far less variance than in 2016 with regards to polling.

There are 4 things that still help trump:

1) low educated white voters registration is up astronomically in PA. I believe last I saw it was up 50%, and this group is notoriously unrepresented in polling data. Democrat registration is down in states like florida.

2) General silent trump voter. We dont listen or engage with fake news and thus sampling might be skewed

3) enthusiasm gap. People are more enthusiastic to vote FOR trump and it's clear by just looking at his rallies and how happy trump supporters are to support him.

4) democrats are retards and can't follow simple instructions. They will screw up mail in voting because they can't read or put their vote in the proper envelope. I saw a NYT article recently saying possibly millions of democrat votes may be deemed ineligible. This imo is the most likely scenario and is why democrats are starting to sow the seeds of trump "stealing the election." Trump's total of people that vote in person on election day will be around 60-65% to bidens 30%. The vast majority of biden votes will be by mail. You can see this now with the biden camp freaking out and urging the democrat pussies to go to the polls live now because they know their voters are too dumb to check a box on a piece of paper and mail it in. So this helps trump as well.

Trump still has a very viable chance to win. He's around 25% right now according to nate silver, which is still a very likely outcome. That said, it's not looking good. Thankfully us owning the supreme court for the next 20 years will slow down democrat hegemony. No regrets.

I would love to be wrong about the above though
 
Because democrats are retards with reading and following simple instructions, post-election night we'll prob end up with a bush v gore scenario where democrats keep "finding" ballots and wanting some to count and not others and we'll have to shut down their shenanigans, they will cry. This is the likely scenario we will see if trump wins.
 
Hello BRUTALITOPS,

Anything but a landslide and Trump turns it into a circus with off the wall legal shenanigans.

Come on, Blue Wave!
 
Contrary to how it might appear to the rest of the world- after the election of the mango moron- I dare predict that Americans are not so stupid as to stick their fool heads up their asses twice.
 
moon said:
Contrary to how it might appear to the rest of the world- after the election of the mango moron- I dare predict that Americans are not so stupid as to stick their fool heads up their asses twice.
Click to expand...

"Let go of Trump or else the riots continue and escalate".
 
BRUTALITOPS said:
The democratic propaganda machine really works on the sheep.

Biden is leading too many polls in too many swing states, and this year we have a much small number of undecided voters which means far less variance than in 2016 with regards to polling.

There are 4 things that still help trump:

1) low educated white voters registration is up astronomically in PA. I believe last I saw it was up 50%, and this group is notoriously unrepresented in polling data. Democrat registration is down in states like florida.
Click to expand...

I live in PA. In 2016, I saw many, many Trump signs. Now I see almost NONE. I have a few family members who supported Trump last time and are now considering either Biden or staying home on election night.

So don't get too cocky about PA going to Trump again.
 
Michael_Panetta said:
I live in PA. In 2016, I saw many, many Trump signs. Now I see almost NONE. I have a few family members who supported Trump last time and are now considering either Biden or staying home on election night.

So don't get too cocky about PA going to Trump again.
Click to expand...
I don't see any Biden signs. I guess no one is excited about him.
 
BRUTALITOPS said:
The democratic propaganda machine really works on the sheep.

Biden is leading too many polls in too many swing states, and this year we have a much small number of undecided voters which means far less variance than in 2016 with regards to polling.

There are 4 things that still help trump:

1) low educated white voters registration is up astronomically in PA. I believe last I saw it was up 50%, and this group is notoriously unrepresented in polling data. Democrat registration is down in states like florida.

2) General silent trump voter. We dont listen or engage with fake news and thus sampling might be skewed

3) enthusiasm gap. People are more enthusiastic to vote FOR trump and it's clear by just looking at his rallies and how happy trump supporters are to support him.

4) democrats are retards and can't follow simple instructions. They will screw up mail in voting because they can't read or put their vote in the proper envelope. I saw a NYT article recently saying possibly millions of democrat votes may be deemed ineligible. This imo is the most likely scenario and is why democrats are starting to sow the seeds of trump "stealing the election." Trump's total of people that vote in person on election day will be around 60-65% to bidens 30%. The vast majority of biden votes will be by mail. You can see this now with the biden camp freaking out and urging the democrat pussies to go to the polls live now because they know their voters are too dumb to check a box on a piece of paper and mail it in. So this helps trump as well.

Trump still has a very viable chance to win. He's around 25% right now according to nate silver, which is still a very likely outcome. That said, it's not looking good. Thankfully us owning the supreme court for the next 20 years will slow down democrat hegemony. No regrets.

I would love to be wrong about the above though
Click to expand...


Point 1 was true in 2016 but is no longer true. You need an education about Florida voter registration. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/08/swing-states-florida-409040 You are one of those uneducated whites arent you?
Point 2 is generally dismissed by most statisticians
Point 4 is just moronic and not based on any facts
The only thing that will save your piece of ass snot is some sort of unknown event between now and the election.

watch this...
 
katzgar said:
Point 1 was true in 2016 but is no longer true. You need an education about Florida voter registration. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/08/swing-states-florida-409040 You are one of those uneducated whites arent you?
Click to expand...

A Democratic strategist — who requested anonymity because his employer does not want him publicly identified talking about the election — analyzed the implications of the most recent voter registration trends for me.

In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he said, overall

registration is up by 6 points through August compared to the 2016 cycle, but net Democratic registrations are down by 38 percent. That’s about 150,000 fewer additional Democrats than were added in 2016.

In addition, he continued, registration among whites without college degrees

is up by 46 percent while registration by people of color is up by only 4 percent. That gap is made more stark when you realize that over the last four years, the WNC (white non-college) population has increased by only 1 percent in those states, while the number of people of color increased by 13 percent.

The pattern was more pronounced in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than it was in Michigan.

On its own, increased registration among non-college whites would have only a negligible effect on total state voting, my source pointed out, but

it becomes troubling if it reflects greater interest more generally for these voters in those states. And there are good reasons to believe that if that is the case, those additionally energized voters are very underrepresented in surveys now.
Click to expand...



Point 4 is just moronic and not based on any facts
Click to expand...

Disqualified ballots are a bigger problem for Biden and the Democratic Party than for Trump and the Republican Party. An August WSJ/NBC poll found, for example, that 11 percent of Trump voters plan to cast ballots by mail compared with 47 percent of Biden voters.

From another vantage point, those planning to cast absentee ballots favor Biden over Trump 74-20, while those planning to vote in person on Election Day favor Trump over Biden 62-30, according to the WSJ/NBC survey.

A recent Philadelphia Inquirer story, “How ‘naked ballots’ in Pennsylvania could cost Joe Biden the election,” illustrates how even a relatively easy mistake can nullify a vote. The paper reported on a state Supreme Court decision that

ordered officials to throw out “naked ballots” — mail ballots that arrive without inner “secrecy envelopes.” Pennsylvania uses a two-envelope mail ballot system: A completed ballot goes into a ‘secrecy envelope’ that has no identifying information, and then into a larger mailing envelope that the voter signs.

In Philadelphia’s municipal election last November, the Inquirer reported, 197 out of 3,086 absentee ballots, or 6.4 percent, lacked secrecy envelopes.

What would this mean if the 6.4 percent applied to all the votes cast in 2020? Assuming that 37 percent of 2020 voters cast ballots by mail, as the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape project expects, and assuming that turnout reaches or exceeds a projected 155 million, the 6.4 percent rejection rate for absentee ballots would mean that as many as 3.6 million votes nationwide would be rejected.
The only thing that will save your piece of ass snot is some sort of unknown event between now and the election.
Click to expand...

source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/23/opinion/joe-biden-donald-trump-2020.html
 
building onto the source I just posted above, this is why the democrats are now doing an about face and urging their voters to vote in person (a message they were not saying in the summer)
 
katzgar said:
Point 1 was true in 2016 but is no longer true. You need an education about Florida voter registration. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/08/swing-states-florida-409040 You are one of those uneducated whites arent you?
Point 2 is generally dismissed by most statisticians
Point 4 is just moronic and not based on any facts
The only thing that will save your piece of ass snot is some sort of unknown event between now and the election.

watch this...
Click to expand...

it's pretty funny you are posting a video like this with nate silver when around the 1st minute mark he spells out exactly the argument against what you are trying to suggest. Namely, 25% is a very high chance of probability and of trump still winning.
 
ExpressLane said:
I don't see any Biden signs. I guess no one is excited about him.
Click to expand...

I've found two so far in the Seattle area. The rest are Trump signs.
I also saw three Inslee signs (our idiot governor), and countless Culp signs (the contender for governor).

Haven't gone downtown though. Too dangerous.
 
Michael_Panetta;3924836[B said:
]I live in PA.[/B] In 2016, I saw many, many Trump signs. Now I see almost NONE. I have a few family members who supported Trump last time and are now considering either Biden or staying home on election night.

So don't get too cocky about PA going to Trump again.
Click to expand...

Well, that explains the inbreeding. Other than that I travel up and down the entire coast. I am seeing the same thing I saw in 2016. Trump signs everywhere. Not many Biden. When I brought that up in 2016 on another board it turned into a liberal clusterfuck about how that was not "scientific" and "polls were right". How did that work out? Micabwer?
 
BRUTALITOPS said:
The democratic propaganda machine really works on the sheep.

Biden is leading too many polls in too many swing states, and this year we have a much small number of undecided voters which means far less variance than in 2016 with regards to polling.

There are 4 things that still help trump:

1) low educated white voters registration is up astronomically in PA. I believe last I saw it was up 50%, and this group is notoriously unrepresented in polling data. Democrat registration is down in states like florida.

2) General silent trump voter. We dont listen or engage with fake news and thus sampling might be skewed

3) enthusiasm gap. People are more enthusiastic to vote FOR trump and it's clear by just looking at his rallies and how happy trump supporters are to support him.

4) democrats are retards and can't follow simple instructions. They will screw up mail in voting because they can't read or put their vote in the proper envelope. I saw a NYT article recently saying possibly millions of democrat votes may be deemed ineligible. This imo is the most likely scenario and is why democrats are starting to sow the seeds of trump "stealing the election." Trump's total of people that vote in person on election day will be around 60-65% to bidens 30%. The vast majority of biden votes will be by mail. You can see this now with the biden camp freaking out and urging the democrat pussies to go to the polls live now because they know their voters are too dumb to check a box on a piece of paper and mail it in. So this helps trump as well.

Trump still has a very viable chance to win. He's around 25% right now according to nate silver, which is still a very likely outcome. That said, it's not looking good. Thankfully us owning the supreme court for the next 20 years will slow down democrat hegemony. No regrets.

I would love to be wrong about the above though
Click to expand...

The only thing in Trump's favor is that he will cheat and lie.
 
moonBAT said:
Contrary to how it might appear to the rest of the world- after the election of the mango moron- I dare predict that Americans are not so stupid as to stick their fool heads up their asses twice.
Click to expand...

Moron doesn't think he is a moron. I do hope you lying, low IQ leftist loons all kill yourselves when Trump is re-elected. :laugh:

tenor.gif
 
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