For a while, I've been puzzled by a quirk in the COVID data. Some of the states with the highest rates of COVID hospitalization continue to have some of the lowest rates of excess deaths.
Take Massachusetts as an example. For much of 2022, it's had one of the highest rates of COVID hospitalization in the country. Currently it has 11 people hospitalized with COVID for every 100,000 residents, which is the seventh highest in the country. So, you'd expect mortality rates to be elevated more than in other states.... but they're not.
Specifically, for the first four months of 2022, the CDC projected 22,381 people would die in Massachusetts, based on pre-pandemic mortality rates. The actual figure has been 23,792. That's 6.30% elevation. That's less than half the national average of 15.32%, and far below the leading states, which are past 20%. In fact, only four states have a less mortality elevation than Massachusetts, so far in 2022 (SD, ND, RI, and HI).
Maine is similar. They have the second-highest COVID hospitalization rate in the country, and have been high throughout 2022, yet they have the 11th-lowest elevation of mortality. Hawaii, similarly, has the fourth-highest COVID hospitalization rate, and the fourth-lowest excess-death percentage.
So, if so many people have been sick enough with COVID to be hospitalized, in MA, ME, and HI, why aren't mortality rates up more? I think the answer might be found in the ICU data.
Take Alaska as a point of comparison. Alaska is reporting fewer COVID hospitalizations, per capita, than any of those states. Yet in Alaska, 17% of the people hospitalized with COVID are in the ICU. In Massachusetts, the figure is 9%, in Maine, 11%, and in Hawaii, just 7%. COVID patient is around twice as likely to be in critical condition in Alaska as in those other states.
I suspect what's going on are different reporting methods in the states. Chances are that Massachusetts, Maine, and Hawaii are testing more patients and reporting up to the CDC any hospitalized people who are COVID positive, whereas Alaska is either testing a smaller share of patients, or only reporting up those with serious COVID symptoms, rather than merely a positive test.
That would explain the failure of COVID-hospitalization and excess-mortality data to correlate very well at the state level. Some states are just reporting a larger share of cases, so they show up as having more of a problem even in cases where it's having less of an impact on mortality.
Take Massachusetts as an example. For much of 2022, it's had one of the highest rates of COVID hospitalization in the country. Currently it has 11 people hospitalized with COVID for every 100,000 residents, which is the seventh highest in the country. So, you'd expect mortality rates to be elevated more than in other states.... but they're not.
Specifically, for the first four months of 2022, the CDC projected 22,381 people would die in Massachusetts, based on pre-pandemic mortality rates. The actual figure has been 23,792. That's 6.30% elevation. That's less than half the national average of 15.32%, and far below the leading states, which are past 20%. In fact, only four states have a less mortality elevation than Massachusetts, so far in 2022 (SD, ND, RI, and HI).
Maine is similar. They have the second-highest COVID hospitalization rate in the country, and have been high throughout 2022, yet they have the 11th-lowest elevation of mortality. Hawaii, similarly, has the fourth-highest COVID hospitalization rate, and the fourth-lowest excess-death percentage.
So, if so many people have been sick enough with COVID to be hospitalized, in MA, ME, and HI, why aren't mortality rates up more? I think the answer might be found in the ICU data.
Take Alaska as a point of comparison. Alaska is reporting fewer COVID hospitalizations, per capita, than any of those states. Yet in Alaska, 17% of the people hospitalized with COVID are in the ICU. In Massachusetts, the figure is 9%, in Maine, 11%, and in Hawaii, just 7%. COVID patient is around twice as likely to be in critical condition in Alaska as in those other states.
I suspect what's going on are different reporting methods in the states. Chances are that Massachusetts, Maine, and Hawaii are testing more patients and reporting up to the CDC any hospitalized people who are COVID positive, whereas Alaska is either testing a smaller share of patients, or only reporting up those with serious COVID symptoms, rather than merely a positive test.
That would explain the failure of COVID-hospitalization and excess-mortality data to correlate very well at the state level. Some states are just reporting a larger share of cases, so they show up as having more of a problem even in cases where it's having less of an impact on mortality.