Contrary Indicator October Jobs Report: Deja Vu All Over Again

[icedancer2theend]

So growth- albeit at an anemic rate, is actually attributed to government shedding jobs while the private sector adds them.

This is getting repetitive. The October jobs report, out Friday morning, is very similar to the reports of recent months. Some 80,000 new payroll jobs were created, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 9.0 percent. It highlights a trend of an employment market that's recovering very slowly, with workers eking out meager gains.

The "conservative recovery" continues. For months we've been noticing that, every month, the private sector adds jobs while the public sector cuts them. It's been the case for much of the past year that the U.S. economy is growing not because of government spending, but in spite of government cutbacks. In October, the private sector created 104,000 jobs, with gains led by professional and business services (33,000) and leisure and hospitality (22,000). Manufacturing posted a small 5,000 jobs gain. Meanwhile, governments at all levels cut 24,000 jobs. Since May 2010, government has cut one million jobs while the private sector has added 2.28 million positions.

Labor market frustration remains at high levels. The headline unemployment rate is only one of several data points contained in the report. And while the 9.0 percent rate is pretty dreadful, other metrics bear witness to a high and depressing level of labor market weakness. The unemployment rate for teenagers stands at 24.1 percent. The employment-population ratio checked in at a truly weak 58.4 percent. And the U-6, an alternate measure of unemployment that includes people who have given up people who are marginally attached to the workforce and people who are working part-time but would rather be working full-time, stands at 16.2 percent. That's down from 16.5 percent in September 2011, and down from 17.0 percent in October 2010, but it's still much too high.

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[Onceler]

Not sure I understand the gist of the thread. The kind of job growth that is needed going forward can only really come from the private sector. There is no way to restore full employment with gov't jobs, and that really isn't desirable for anyone, even if there was.

 

[Damocles]

And 9.1 to 9 is good, especially when it was expected it would remain at 9.1.

 

[Cancel 2016.2]

Given what the bond market is doing today, I would protect my portfolio. It is just one day, but the 90 tbill briefly went to a neg yield this morning. (just barely)

 

[Bonestorm]

ID grossly misunderstand what the author is saying. He's saying that the employment situation is shitty, and is shittier that it otherwise would be because governments are shedding jobs and cutting spending.

Job growth isn't "attributed to government shedding jobs," but is occurring notwithstanding that governments aren't do anything to improve the economy and are actually taking steps that are a drag on growth.

 

[Jarod]

80,000 Aint good, but at least its in the posative catagory and thats what really matters, right Damocles?

 

[icedancer2theend]

U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.

not seasonally adjusted
10.6 Oct-2010
10.2 Sep-2011
10.0 Oct-2011

seasonally adjusted
11.2 Oct-2010
10.7 Jun-2011
10.7 Jul-2011
10.6 Aug-2011
10.5 Sep-2011
10.5 Oct-2011

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force. Oct-2011-16.2%