Climate NON-change: No increase in droughts since 1950, say boffins

Writing in heavyweight boffinry journal Nature, the team from America's Princeton and the Australian National University have this to say:
Here we show that the previously reported increase in global drought is overestimated because [the current method] uses a simplified model of potential evaporation that responds only to changes in temperature and thus responds incorrectly to global warming in recent decades. More realistic calculations, based on the underlying physical principles that take into account changes in available energy, humidity and wind speed, suggest that there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years.

Of course, the in-house climate experts Bijou and Haiku know better and will tell you that these climate scientists are on the payroll of Exxon and BP. What is probably the funniest aspect of this hoary old chestnut about funding is that oil companies are anxious to get their full share of wind subsidies and carbon credits so they are fully signed up to the AGW trough. The trouble is Howie's Harlots haven't managed to get their new talking points yet, so they are working off an old script.



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Worst U.S. Drought in 50 Years to Raise Food Prices in 2013

Consumers can expect the worst US drought in 50 years to cast a shadow across food prices throughout 2013, according to fresh government data released Wednesday. The estimates are the first to capture the effects of this summer’s drought in America’s heartland, and show food prices increasing at a rate well above normal expectations.

“We’re expecting another year of tough food prices, bad news for consumers,” said USDA food economist Richard Volpe.

“The difference between normal and higher than normal in this case is one hundred percent attributable to the drought,” Volpe said. The food price index data is released by USDA each month; it is a set of numbers that indicates how much an average shopper is likely to pay at the supermarket.


Normal food inflation has been between 2.5-3.5 percent in recent years, Volpe said, and is calculated to include a variety of pushes and pulls on the economy, including fuel prices and the state of the American dollar. That so-called normal inflation rate will largely play out for the rest of this year, all things being equal, he said. The drought will surface in food prices next year.

Climate Desk has illustrated a handful of basic groceries in the graphic above, comparing the average prices for the last full year of data, 2011, with USDA’s projected prices for 2013. While price increases may not seem too severe on the surface, they add up for a family on a budget across a year.

Climate Desk approached the USDA to ask whether food assistance programs like WIC or SNAP will increase to help families meet their budgets. USDA spokesman Alyn Kiel said via email that price fluctuations are taken into account:

“USDA accounts for changes in food prices and the number of WIC participants when calculating the total budget request for WIC. The level of funding is set by Congress,” he wrote. “USDA’s food plans… are updated monthly and reflect fluctuations in food prices.”

One estimate says that the US, the biggest player in the world corn market, could slash world corn supply by 60 billion tons as a result of the drought. Looking further afield, food prices in the US have a big impact not only on prices around the world, but also on the potential for social unrest in developing countries.

Animal-based perishable foods will be hardest hit. The USDA projects that poultry products will rise 3-4 percent next year, compared to this year’s average. The biggest rises are seen in beef and veal, rising 4-5 percent from 2012 averages (Volpe says structural problems play a role in this sector, alongside the drought). Dairy products will take a hit too, rising up to 4.5 percent.

There is a lag in food prices because it takes time for the effects of a drought to ripple across the food system. Many food manufacturers lock in long-term prices with primary producers. Consumers are likely to see price hikes once the contracts are up, said Joe Parcell, Director, Agriculture and Applied Economics at the University of Missouri-Columbia. “We’re going to start feeling the impact from September onwards,” he said.

More than 60 percent of America’s farms are located in areas experiencing drought. Two thirds of all crops and two thirds of livestock are produced in areas experiencing at least moderate drought.

It will take a another year before the drought has moved through the system, USDA’s Volpe said.
http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/07/drought-food-prices-2013/
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Nothing to see here....

Or here.. http://www.nrdc.org/globalwarming/fcons/fcons1.asp

<snip> That’s a look at predicted Palmer Drought Severity Index around the world. Take a look at the United States, where the PDSI ranges as high as -6 to -7 in the Great Plains. For context, the PDSI briefly spiked to -6 in that area during the Dust Bowl, but it rarely exceeded -3 for the rest of the 1930s. In other words, there’s a possibility of persisting drought conditions more severe as the Dust Bowl within the next two decades.

This 2011 review paper (pdf) by Aiguo Dai of the National Center on Atmospheric Research offers more detail about what’s expected to happen in North America if the world keeps heating up. Rainfall won’t go away. In parts of the Midwest, it will even increase. But modeling suggests that warmer air temperatures and increased evaporation will dry out soils and make persistent droughts more likely in the next 20 to 50 years. Dai also told me, via e-mail, that expected natural changes in Pacific Ocean cycles could very well intensify drought trends for the United States in the coming decades. (His study on this is forthcoming in the journal Nature Climate Change.)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...hat-we-know-about-climate-change-and-drought/
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For those interested theres a documentary on the dust bowl on PBS tonight at 9pm...
 
Horn of Africa drought seen from spaceDrought in Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti is pushing tens of thousands of people from their homes as millions face food insecurity in a crisis visible from space. ESA's SMOS satellite shows that the region's soil is too dry to grow crops.








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Horn of Africa drought seen from space Soil moisture 2011Image:

Somalis, who already face war in their country, have been fleeing to neighbouring countries in search of refuge. In Kenya's Dadaab refugee camp, for example, over 1000 people - mostly children - arrive daily, severely dehydrated and malnourished.While international aid agencies call this the 'worst drought in decades,' space technology has mapped the crisis over a shorter time period.

ESA's SMOS soil moisture and ocean salinity satellite shows that Somalia's soil appears dry during the 2011 main rainy season, particularly in the southern agricultural region.

Somalia has an arid climate in the northeast and central regions, while the northwest and south receive at least reasonable amounts of rain in a normal year.

Although the country's proximity to the equator means there is not much seasonal variation in climate, the April to June rains are important for agriculture.
But this year, the rains were insufficient for cultivating crops. SMOS shows that there was little or no moisture in surface soil in some key areas between April and July.

"The SMOS measurements in such areas are probably two to four times more accurate than those with other satellite sensors or models," said Yann Kerr, SMOS lead scientist for soil moisture at the CESBIO centre for studying Earth's biosphere from space in Toulouse, France.

Launched in November 2009, SMOS is helping us to understand Earth's water cycle with its specialised sensor.Additional information on soil moisture gathered over the last 20 years by various instruments reveal the lead-up to this year's dry spell in the Horn of Africa.

In the final months of 2010, the soil moisture was lower than average in areas covering Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti and Somalia.

The consequences of this drought are dire: crops have failed, livestock are dwindling and the people are starving
 
[h=1]Crisis in East Africa[/h]
Puntland-Galkayo%20317%20copy.JPG
Photo: Peter Biro/IRC

More than 13 million people are still in urgent need of food and assistance after the worst drought to hit East Africa in 60 years. The International Rescue Committee has worked in East Africa since the 1990s. Today, we deliver lifesaving aid to hundreds of thousands of people in some of the most desperate locations in three countries across the region.
 
Rune said:
Crisis in East Africa

Puntland-Galkayo%20317%20copy.JPG
Photo: Peter Biro/IRC

More than 13 million people are still in urgent need of food and assistance after the worst drought to hit East Africa in 60 years. The International Rescue Committee has worked in East Africa since the 1990s. Today, we deliver lifesaving aid to hundreds of thousands of people in some of the most desperate locations in three countries across the region.
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You just said it yourself, the worst drought in 60 years. So, it begs the question, what was the reason for the last great drought? Oh and what about the drought of 1984-85, remember Live Aid??
 
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tom,

do you really expect legion/rune to debate you?

i would like it if he did, but i've never seen it.

here is how he debates:

A: point

Rune: you're stupid

A: why?

Rune: because you're stupid
 
cannabis said:
tom,

do you really expect legion/rune to debate you?

i would like it if he did, but i've never seen it.

here is how he debates:

A: point

Rune: you're stupid

A: why?

Rune: because you're stupid
Click to expand...

Firstly I don't believe that Rune is also Legion, it is more done to Rune's naiveness about trolls. Secondly, I live in hope stranger things have happened!!
 
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