Can Trump win Florida?

Poor Richard Saunders said:
Let's face facts here. Florida is a must win state for Trump. If he loses Florida he has to win every other state currently considered a tossup, MI, PA, NC, WI, AZ. Considering he is currently down in the polling by about 6 points in MI and PA, the chances of him winning both of those states is not likely which means he really needs to win Florida. But what are his chances?

Currently Biden is polling with a 3 point lead in Florida. That is just the current period of time when Trump is looking bad for his leadership during the pandemic. If things turn around and jobs come back and the economy is roaring again in October that could change so I don't put much stock in the current polling.

But there are a couple of other things to consider. Trump only beat Clinton by 113,000 votes in 2016. At the same time Jill Stein got 67,000 votes and Gary Johnson got 207,000 votes. The potential voters in Florida have been increased by over a million voters as felons have been given back the right to vote in Florida after the voters passed a constitutional amendment. The court ruling over the weekend has essentially said Florida can't prevent those people from voting without violating the US Constitution. The amendment to the Florida Constitution means the state legislature can't pass legislation to prevent them from voting. After the Republican legislature and governor have done everything they can to prevent those felons from getting their voting rights back those new voters certainly have no reason to support a Republican candidate.

In past Presidential elections 72-75% of Florida's eligible voters have turned out to vote. If we assume everyone in Florida votes the same as last time and then add in the newly restored voters, it becomes hard for Trump to win the election in Florida. Even if 40% of those restored voters are willing to vote for a Republican there only needs to be a 60% turnout amongst them for Trump to lose Florida. If they turn out in the same percentages as the general population it only becomes harder for Trump. If they vote overwhelming against Republicans and have a large turnout Trump may lose Florida by over a million votes.

At this point I would say any future polling in Florida will be suspect since we don't know about those new voters, how they will turn out and if they are included in any currrent or future polling or if the pollsters are relying on previous voting patterns to adjust polls. No matter how you look at it, I suspect Trump will need to be leading by 4-5 points in polls to have a chance to win Florida. That currently isn't the case and only time will tell if he can come back from his current deficit.
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He won it in 2016 and there's no reason to think he can't do it again.
 
Yakuda said:
He won it in 2016 and there's no reason to think he can't do it again.
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There are a number of reasons to think he can't win it.

At this point in 2016 Hillary was polling a good 3 points behind where Biden is at. Trump only won by 1.2.
At this point in 2016, almost 12% of the electorate in Florida was undecided. This year only 6% are so Trump needs almost all of the undecideds if Biden retains his current percentage. Hillary actually added to hers.
Trump's polling is similar to where it was in 2016 at this point. So he will need to change a lot of minds.
 
Poor Richard Saunders said:
There are a number of reasons to think he can't win it.

At this point in 2016 Hillary was polling a good 3 points behind where Biden is at. Trump only won by 1.2.
At this point in 2016, almost 12% of the electorate in Florida was undecided. This year only 6% are so Trump needs almost all of the undecideds if Biden retains his current percentage. Hillary actually added to hers.
Trump's polling is similar to where it was in 2016 at this point. So he will need to change a lot of minds.
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You need the polls to feel better I get it.
 
Yakuda said:
You need the polls to feel better I get it.
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The polls are simply data points. Data points tend to show what is likely to happen. You ignore the polls at your peril.

I understand how polling has a margin of error. I also understand statistics which is why I wasn't particularly shocked when Trump won because the polls had that in the margin of error.
 
The last three or four state wide election, the Republicans did better than the polling would have suggested. If Biden is only up by one or two points on election day, I’d give him a 50-50 chance.
 
Poor Richard Saunders said:
The polls are simply data points. Data points tend to show what is likely to happen. You ignore the polls at your peril.

I understand how polling has a margin of error. I also understand statistics which is why I wasn't particularly shocked when Trump won because the polls had that in the margin of error.
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I don't ignore them I merely see them for what they are, horribly incomplete isolated snapshots.

I once heard statistics described as a lamp post to a drunk. It will help support him but it won't help him see things any better. All my experience with statistics bears that out.
 
If Florida is close, the mechanics for stealing it are in place. Florida has chosen its winners in the dark when needed.
 
Yakuda said:
He won it in 2016 and there's no reason to think he can't do it again.
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You have seen no change in 4 years? Are we better off than we were 4 years ago? Has Trump totally shitfucked the Trump virus? Has the economy not gone in the shitter?
 
Nordberg said:
You have seen no change in 4 years? Are we better off than we were 4 years ago? Has Trump totally shitfucked the Trump virus? Has the economy not gone in the shitter?
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I have seen a change. I have seen animals take over cities and i have seen gutless leftist politicians fail in their duty to protect the citizens and their property from those animals. And what's worse the animals are trying to tell the humans that they are behaving like animals Because of trump. Only an animal could buy that story. I am far better off thank you. Trump shut down travel from China while piglosi was I Chinatown inviting everyone to come out and spread covid. It tanked because you assholes demanded a complete fucking shutdown. News alert for you dick face, the only people as stupid as leftist is another leftists. But you poor helpless bastards don't know what elese to do, do you? Fucking losers.
 
Yakuda said:
I have seen a change. I have seen animals take over cities and i have seen gutless leftist politicians fail in their duty to protect the citizens and their property from those animals. And what's worse the animals are trying to tell the humans that they are behaving like animals Because of trump. Only an animal could buy that story. I am far better off thank you. Trump shut down travel from China while piglosi was I Chinatown inviting everyone to come out and spread covid. It tanked because you assholes demanded a complete fucking shutdown. News alert for you dick face, the only people as stupid as leftist is another leftists. But you poor helpless bastards don't know what elese to do, do you? Fucking losers.
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Those are not animals although the police treat them as such. They are people who are tired of police abuse and killings.
How do we demand a complete shutdown? You know we never did it. we allowed people to shop and move around the streets and parks. If we did shutdown there would have been a lot fewer cases and deaths. You are another angry righty. how sad.
 
Poor Richard Saunders said:
The polls are simply data points. Data points tend to show what is likely to happen. You ignore the polls at your peril.

I understand how polling has a margin of error. I also understand statistics which is why I wasn't particularly shocked when Trump won because the polls had that in the margin of error.
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Lemme tell you something: There are more patriotic Cubans in Florida than all the leftist Puerto-Rican and illegal votes the Democrats could ever muster. They know what Communism is, and that's why they're here.
Also there are very patriotic Puerto-Ricans as well.
 
Poor Richard Saunders said:
Which raises the question, "Would a true patriot even consider voting for Trump who ignores the US Constitution?"
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Some believe, even the self proclaimed strict constitutionalists, that if trump breaks the law, usurps the constitution etc, it's ok, it's for good, cause he is good & hurting dems, libs, progressives is gawds will so it's ok.........

A lot like the O' gop fecal conservitives, the same now cheering the trillions in trump debt & TAXING/TARIFF FIASCO........... Shame on all of them...........
 
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