An Idea for Immigration

There is a reasonable path to earn your way in.

There isn't. That's the problem. Even if you have a close connection to the US, there is a decades-long wait to come here from some countries. For example:

"A U.S. permanent resident’s unmarried son or daughter, who is 21 years old or older, will have to wait roughly 21 years to file an application for an immigrant visa if they’re from Mexico."

That's unreasonable, and it's the reason that people who'd much rather go through legitimate channels instead despair and come here illegally. We should change the rules to make the path more reasonable.
 
you haven't dangled anything since your unfortunate accident.....

1qbcjl.jpg
 
I leave off the portion that's irrelevant to the response I'm making. If such excerpting conflicts with your vanity, that strikes me as a personal problem.

It's only "irrelevant"; because it makes your stand ineffectual and it shows how disingenuous you truly are. :good4u:
 
There isn't. That's the problem. Even if you have a close connection to the US, there is a decades-long wait to come here from some countries. For example:

"A U.S. permanent resident’s unmarried son or daughter, who is 21 years old or older, will have to wait roughly 21 years to file an application for an immigrant visa if they’re from Mexico."

That's unreasonable, and it's the reason that people who'd much rather go through legitimate channels instead despair and come here illegally. We should change the rules to make the path more reasonable.

You're really going to have to provide more then your assertion on this one and hopefully all the details that supposedly made this a 21 year wait. :good4u:
 
You're really going to have to provide more then your assertion on this one and hopefully all the details that supposedly made this a 21 year wait. :good4u:

Here you go:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politic...r-legal-residency-actually-looks-like/540408/

That was taken right from an official State Department bulletin. You can get up-to-date figures here:

https://travel.state.gov/content/da...atistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2018.pdf

As you can see, even the fourth preference category (brothers and sisters of U.S. citizens, and their spouses and minor children, provided the U.S. citizens are at least 21 years of age) has a waiting period of 13 years even for the countries with the most favorable availability, with even longer waits for others. For Mexico, it's just plain brutal:

https://travel.state.gov/content/da...ff-dates/Cut-off_Dates_Mexico_online_FY18.pdf

As you can see, as of September of 2018, for the F3 group (married sons and daughters of US citizens), they were only getting around to those who applied in 1995. That's 23 years of wait! And that's for someone who has the special status of actually being the child of a US citizen. If you're looking to immigrate without a close family connection to someone already in the US, and you're not in a privileged class like Cuban nationals (or, say, Eastern European women willing to have sex with Donald Trump), your wait is effectively indefinite.
 
In post 21 you asked how there can be eleven million illegals here and not be a problem. Yet you said that in response to a post by me that did not, in any way, say that having eleven million undocumented residents isn't a problem. Instead, I said we had a "manufactured panic" over illegal immigration. Obviously, those are two very different things. Something can be a problem without being worth panicking over. In fact, my post pretty clearly implied there is a problem with illegal immigration:

"I think we can all agree that solving this problem with legal immigration would be better than solving it with illegal immigration..."

Why would the former be better than the latter if there's no problem with the latter? Why spend the money on the kind of immigrant university I'm envisioning, if we could instead just ignore illegal immigration?

There's a tendency on the right to want to reframe everything the liberals say into something they feel they have the mental capacity to address, rather than actually addressing what the liberals have said. Showing there are at least some problems with a large population of people here illegally would be easy, so you simply pretend I argued the opposite, so you have something to fight. But that's a distraction and I'm not interested in being distracted. If you can find the courage to debate for real, take on what I've actually said, rather than trying to assign me a position for which you think you have a rebuttal.

so you don't want to address what you called your starting point.......that illegal immigration is a manufactured problem......until you face the facts we cannot move forward......again, why do you believe having eleven million illegals in the US is not a real problem......do you think that if we build your university in Mexico the eleven million people here illegally are all going to leave?........
 
There isn't. That's the problem. .

there is, for anyone here legally......there should not be for anyone here illegally.....

That's unreasonable

why?.......is it reasonable to say they can come in the first place?......I would say if they have a marketable skill and someone wants to hire them, paying enough that they will not become a burden on society, then THAT is reasonable........not simply the fact they have a parent here......
 
Here you go:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politic...r-legal-residency-actually-looks-like/540408/

That was taken right from an official State Department bulletin. You can get up-to-date figures here:

https://travel.state.gov/content/da...atistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2018.pdf

As you can see, even the fourth preference category (brothers and sisters of U.S. citizens, and their spouses and minor children, provided the U.S. citizens are at least 21 years of age) has a waiting period of 13 years even for the countries with the most favorable availability, with even longer waits for others. For Mexico, it's just plain brutal:

https://travel.state.gov/content/da...ff-dates/Cut-off_Dates_Mexico_online_FY18.pdf

As you can see, as of September of 2018, for the F3 group (married sons and daughters of US citizens), they were only getting around to those who applied in 1995. That's 23 years of wait! And that's for someone who has the special status of actually being the child of a US citizen. If you're looking to immigrate without a close family connection to someone already in the US, and you're not in a privileged class like Cuban nationals (or, say, Eastern European women willing to have sex with Donald Trump), your wait is effectively indefinite.

Your first link showed nothing at all about 21 years.

Your second link showed nothing at all about 21 years.

Your third link shows both long and short waits; but failed to explain why.

Since you apparently are unable to provide the information, no more of your "links" will be considered; plus since you've decided to make this political, instead of realizing that this has been the standard under previous terms, you're just unhappy and are whining. :good4u:
 
so you don't want to address what you called your starting point.......that illegal immigration is a manufactured problem

You're still trying to put words in my mouth. I didn't call it a manufactured problem. In fact, I only mentioned a "problem" in my post twice, once regarding "solving this problem," and once regarding how my proposed solution would serve as a vetting period to weed out problem immigrants (again, implicitly making it clear I do think there are some problems associated with immigration that should be addressed). My statement wasn't that illegal immigration is a manufactured problem, but rather that we should clear away the manufactured panic about illegal immigration.

Look, I get it: you're out of your league and you know it. You feel impotent to address my actual points, so you want to instead hand me positions to defend so you can attack those, instead. But I'm not playing along. I made an argument. You can attack it or your can run and hide, but you cannot assign me some other argument to defend.

again, why do you believe having eleven million illegals in the US is not a real problem

Again, what makes you think that's what I think?

do you think that if we build your university in Mexico the eleven million people here illegally are all going to leave?........

No. However, many of them will. If you were here illegally -- ineligible to take higher-paying jobs with properly enforced worker protections, and exposed to employer abuses because of that, because you lack legal status -- what would you do if the program I'm talking about became possible? What would you do if returning to your home country didn't mean a decades-long exile from the US in the hopes of some uncertain day of being able to return legally, but rather a clear-cut and reasonably short path to legalizing your status and improving your job options by way of the university I'm talking about? I think what a lot of people would do is to take the deal -- go to Mexico, enroll, and return in a few weeks or a few years (depending on how long it takes to fulfill the requirements) with the fear of deportation no longer hanging over them, and a whole new class of jobs open to them.

Of course, this doesn't offer much for the deplorables. They fear and loathe brown people, so a solution that greatly reduces illegal immigration but still means those people will come to our country doesn't really scratch their itch. But for those who object on the basis of not wanting so much lawlessness, it provides a practical way to transition those people to legal status, while addressing some of the problems associated with immigration.
 
Last edited:
the biggest advantage would be that Mexico could pay for it......

They wouldn't. It's for our benefit, after all. I'm not going to pretend this will somehow be on Mexico's dime. Sure, we know there are tens of millions of Americans so incredibly stupid they'd fall for such rhetoric, but that would make me as bad as Trump.
 
there is, for anyone here legally......there should not be for anyone here illegally.....

There isn't, though. See the links I provided. The waiting period, even for those with extremely close links to US citizens, is absurd, if you don't come from a privileged country or have certain other advantages. If we want people to pick a legal path instead of an illegal one, the legal path has to be practical enough to make it a real option. Expecting them to apply now and wait to hear back in 20 or 25 years isn't practical.

why?.......is it reasonable to say they can come in the first place?

Yes. As pointed out in the top post, we badly need them. We have a demographic bomb ready to go off, and the xenophobes on the right are perfectly willing to let it blow up our country if the alternative is the threat of having a brown neighbor.
 
Your first link showed nothing at all about 21 years.

If you have any friends who have basic reading skills, have them walk you through it. The first link has the exact sentence I quoted:

"A U.S. permanent resident’s unmarried son or daughter, who is 21 years old or older, will have to wait roughly 21 years to file an application for an immigrant visa if they’re from Mexico, according to the State Department’s visa bulletin."

Since you are apparently unable to read, how can I provide the information to you?
 
If you have any friends who have basic reading skills, have them walk you through it. The first link has the exact sentence I quoted:

"A U.S. permanent resident’s unmarried son or daughter, who is 21 years old or older, will have to wait roughly 21 years to file an application for an immigrant visa if they’re from Mexico, according to the State Department’s visa bulletin."

Since you are apparently unable to read, how can I provide the information to you?

So nothing more, except from 15 months ago; plus it was an OPed piece. :good4u:;
 
I agree the right won't like it, but it could still have value in countering their claim that the left has no ideas for immigration, other than blocking Republican ideas.

As for the left's objection, I agree you're likely to hear that. I suppose one solution would be to open it up to everyone. I doubt many Americans would take them up on the offer to live in spartan conditions, south of our border, in order to learn some low-level vocational skills and civics, much less if it came with a helping of janitorial duties, etc. The conditions I'm picturing would be entirely humane, and probably an upgrade for most of those from Central America choosing to go there, but for most US citizens, it would be rough.

However, if it turns out to work well, it could serve as a guide for a more stripped-down free college experience in the US, as well. I mean, picture experimental schools where campuses and classes are stripped of all their frills, and students are assigned 20 hours of chores per week, in exchange for a free degree.

All in all, I think you are on the right track. We do need to dramatically improve the legal immigration side of things. Especially in the STEM arenas. But we also have a large need for the low to no skill jobs as well. So both ends of the spectrum. I don't think we need to fund a university in another country. There are plenty of already educated people that are qualified around the world that would like to come here, we just have to make it so that they can. But to take from your concept, I do think on the low end of the skill set spectrum, we could do some sort of educational plan that would help those who need to improve English skill sets to do so. Or if there are those that want to develop a trade skill set, fund those. If they wish to further their education after that, then we have a university system in place that they can apply to on their own.

One clarification on the OP though, the echo boomer generation (aka millenials) is larger than the boomers. I don't think we are going to have any employment crisis. We have certain sectors of the economy that are going to have need of employees. But it isn't due to retirement. It is due to educational skill sets.
 
All in all, I think you are on the right track. We do need to dramatically improve the legal immigration side of things. Especially in the STEM arenas. But we also have a large need for the low to no skill jobs as well.

I'd focus a lot more on the low-skill jobs than the higher-skill ones, when it comes to immigration. I see it as preferable from all three key perspectives:

(1) The perspective of the immigrants. Low-skill immigrants have the fewest options in their home countries and are likely to suffer the most if they can't come here (whereas higher-skill immigrants will be able to find decent jobs even if they can't emigrate). Thus, taking on low-skill workers will mean greater per-worker diminution in suffering than taking on higher-skill workers.

(2) The perspective of those left behind. If we skim off the highest-skill workers from developing nations (often after their countries have invested lots of money educating them to be a hope for the future), we're screwing over those countries -- making it harder for them to develop into more productive and prosperous nations. By comparison, if we siphon off workers who would often be a burden to their home countries, but are able to provide valuable low-end services in a wealthier nation, we are easing the path for those nations to become prosperous (they get revenues from money the workers send home, without those people burdening infrastructure and services there).

(3) From the perspective of native-born Americans. If we bring in high-skill workers, we are undercutting the bargaining power of people who are already here and competing for those jobs. For example, if you've just invested $100k in education to be able to fill a job as an engineer, only to find you can't earn enough to pay off your loans because the employers have imported cheaper alternatives (who lacked those high educational costs), you're going to be in rough shape. By comparison, if we bring in lower-skill workers from abroad, a lot of the work they'll do will just be for stuff that would represent an uncompensated burden for Americans if the immigrants weren't here making those things more affordable. For example, if it's cheaper to get your lawn mowed by an immigrant, you're less likely to just suck it up and do it yourself. So, it makes your life better even as it makes the immigrant's life better, and nobody is worse off. It would also displace some work that would otherwise be automated (e.g., more immigrants flipping burgers in the US, rather than more Chinese people in China building burger-flipping machines for export to the US). And it could provide upward pressure on native-born Americans' careers, making advancement easier (for example, would you rather be the housekeeper who is on her knees scrubbing a toilet, or the person who manages a team of immigrant housekeepers, while leveraging your superior English language skills and cultural knowledge to be the interface with the customer?)

I'm open to the idea of specific short-term STEM imports to address acute spot shortages. But we should not lean on that as a fix to a chronic shortfall of skills in those positions. Rather, we should invest in training up the native population to take those jobs, while the jobs they vacate as they move to those higher-skilled positions get filled by lower-skill immigrants.

One clarification on the OP though, the echo boomer generation (aka millenials) is larger than the boomers.

Yes, but that doesn't change the fact the dependency ratio is growing rapidly and soon will get into Japanese territory. Prior to the Boomers, we had a situation where every generation was at least a little bigger than the prior one, which set us up for some easy math when it came to things like funding retirements. Retirees would have a larger generation right behind them, and then an even larger generation in the junior positions following that one. But the Boomers were followed by a much smaller generation, and so even now that there's a trivially larger generation coming along, the math just doesn't work out. You need a LOT more workers than retirees for things to go smoothly (e.g. 5 working-age people for every retiree), and we're moving quickly to a situation where workers will only outnumber retirees by a fairly small margin (e.g., a bit more than 2 working-age for every retiree), making things very difficult. We can fix that with immigration.
 
I'd focus a lot more on the low-skill jobs than the higher-skill ones, when it comes to immigration. I see it as preferable from all three key perspectives:

(1) The perspective of the immigrants. Low-skill immigrants have the fewest options in their home countries and are likely to suffer the most if they can't come here (whereas higher-skill immigrants will be able to find decent jobs even if they can't emigrate). Thus, taking on low-skill workers will mean greater per-worker diminution in suffering than taking on higher-skill workers.

(2) The perspective of those left behind. If we skim off the highest-skill workers from developing nations (often after their countries have invested lots of money educating them to be a hope for the future), we're screwing over those countries -- making it harder for them to develop into more productive and prosperous nations. By comparison, if we siphon off workers who would often be a burden to their home countries, but are able to provide valuable low-end services in a wealthier nation, we are easing the path for those nations to become prosperous (they get revenues from money the workers send home, without those people burdening infrastructure and services there).

(3) From the perspective of native-born Americans. If we bring in high-skill workers, we are undercutting the bargaining power of people who are already here and competing for those jobs. For example, if you've just invested $100k in education to be able to fill a job as an engineer, only to find you can't earn enough to pay off your loans because the employers have imported cheaper alternatives (who lacked those high educational costs), you're going to be in rough shape. By comparison, if we bring in lower-skill workers from abroad, a lot of the work they'll do will just be for stuff that would represent an uncompensated burden for Americans if the immigrants weren't here making those things more affordable. For example, if it's cheaper to get your lawn mowed by an immigrant, you're less likely to just suck it up and do it yourself. So, it makes your life better even as it makes the immigrant's life better, and nobody is worse off. It would also displace some work that would otherwise be automated (e.g., more immigrants flipping burgers in the US, rather than more Chinese people in China building burger-flipping machines for export to the US). And it could provide upward pressure on native-born Americans' careers, making advancement easier (for example, would you rather be the housekeeper who is on her knees scrubbing a toilet, or the person who manages a team of immigrant housekeepers, while leveraging your superior English language skills and cultural knowledge to be the interface with the customer?)

I'm open to the idea of specific short-term STEM imports to address acute spot shortages. But we should not lean on that as a fix to a chronic shortfall of skills in those positions. Rather, we should invest in training up the native population to take those jobs, while the jobs they vacate as they move to those higher-skilled positions get filled by lower-skill immigrants.



Yes, but that doesn't change the fact the dependency ratio is growing rapidly and soon will get into Japanese territory. Prior to the Boomers, we had a situation where every generation was at least a little bigger than the prior one, which set us up for some easy math when it came to things like funding retirements. Retirees would have a larger generation right behind them, and then an even larger generation in the junior positions following that one. But the Boomers were followed by a much smaller generation, and so even now that there's a trivially larger generation coming along, the math just doesn't work out. You need a LOT more workers than retirees for things to go smoothly (e.g. 5 working-age people for every retiree), and we're moving quickly to a situation where workers will only outnumber retirees by a fairly small margin (e.g., a bit more than 2 working-age for every retiree), making things very difficult. We can fix that with immigration.

Like your commentary on the immigration points above. Very good argument regarding the higher end jobs. While I agree to the extent that we have people here that can fill them, if we do not have enough, then we should import the skill set. That said, I would agree with the assessment that a larger portion should come from the lower end spectrum for the reasons you mentioned.

I would like to see the data that you are referring to with regards to the workforce. I have not seen anything that indicates that situation. Would like to read up on it. Thanks.
 
Like your commentary on the immigration points above. Very good argument regarding the higher end jobs. While I agree to the extent that we have people here that can fill them, if we do not have enough, then we should import the skill set. That said, I would agree with the assessment that a larger portion should come from the lower end spectrum for the reasons you mentioned.

I would like to see the data that you are referring to with regards to the workforce. I have not seen anything that indicates that situation. Would like to read up on it. Thanks.

I'm fine with importing skill sets in the short term, but I would make those special visas time-bounded, such that at a particular point you not only couldn't retain the imported worker, but you couldn't import a new worker with that skill set. That would give the public and private sector an incentive to train up native-born workers to fill those niches before the stop-gap measure expired. For example, if we have too few people with training in high-temperature engineering to meet the demand because of some hot new technology, let companies here bring in workers for the next three years to staff those positions, but after that, they don't get those special visas for high-temperature engineers. So, they'll have an incentive to pay for continuing education for their native-born engineers to build those skills, or an incentive to finance scholarships or to pressure the government to do so, to fill that need with native workers.

Regarding the dependency ratio, here you go:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.DPND.OL

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docse...est&checksum=6CDF85AC451C8203C7DCC5874FD27453

As you can see, even with the Millennials, we're projected to go from an old-age dependency ratio of 24.6% in 2015 to one of 40.3 in three decades (when most of the Millennials will still be working age). In the 1970s through 1990s, we were under 20%.
 
I'm fine with importing skill sets in the short term, but I would make those special visas time-bounded, such that at a particular point you not only couldn't retain the imported worker, but you couldn't import a new worker with that skill set. That would give the public and private sector an incentive to train up native-born workers to fill those niches before the stop-gap measure expired. For example, if we have too few people with training in high-temperature engineering to meet the demand because of some hot new technology, let companies here bring in workers for the next three years to staff those positions, but after that, they don't get those special visas for high-temperature engineers. So, they'll have an incentive to pay for continuing education for their native-born engineers to build those skills, or an incentive to finance scholarships or to pressure the government to do so, to fill that need with native workers.

Regarding the dependency ratio, here you go:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.DPND.OL

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docse...est&checksum=6CDF85AC451C8203C7DCC5874FD27453

As you can see, even with the Millennials, we're projected to go from an old-age dependency ratio of 24.6% in 2015 to one of 40.3 in three decades (when most of the Millennials will still be working age). In the 1970s through 1990s, we were under 20%.

For the first paragraph, that is largely what they did in the late 90's during the y2k buildup. Then most of those tech workers went back to India/China. So I agree on that. Thanks for the data, I will take a look at it.
 
Back
Top