538 revises forecast.....calls race for senate control a dead heat......

PostmodernProphet said:
It's a dead heat for Senate......

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/
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Hahahahahahahahahahahaha 538 is such a joke... Nate Silver is an incompetent moron who pretends that he has this "ultra sophisticated super duper model" that runs ten gazillion simulations and spits out what is most likely to happen.

His "super duper model" still thinks that Democrats have a slightly better chance to win the Senate and still thinks that Democrats actually stand any sort of a chance of retaining the House (currently "18%")...

I can't believe that anybody still takes him and his website even the slightest bit seriously.

Any competent pollster/pundit has been saying for a LOOOOOOOOOOOONG time now that Republicans are definitely going to win both the House and the Senate, and I agree with them on that assessment.
 
Dutch Uncle said:
When did Trumpian cocksuckers start trusting polls again?
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I don't. Polls are largely garbage, and the pollster/pundit industry is largely dominated by Democrat morons who purposely skew their results in favor of Democrats to make it look like Democrats are much more popular than they actually are.

There are VERY FEW pollsters/pundits who are any good at their jobs.
 
LurchAddams said:
And today, the "generic Dem" just pulled ahead again, asswipe. You have no clue what's going to happen. No one does.
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The Real Clear Politics "polling average" has Republicans up 2.3 points atm. That is even quite low from reality because Democrat pollsters purposely release ridiculously absurd polls (D's +5??!!!) in order to skew that average downward.

R's are coming in like Hurricane Ian, baby... Brace yourself... it's about to be a rough ride for you.
 
Dutch Uncle said:
The dumbasses have already declared that a win by one is a "red wave". Bullshit has finally trumped common sense in America. <--- see what I did there? LOL
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The Senate does not encompass all of the Midterms, dude.

Look for Republicans to end up with around 240-250 House members and over 30 governorships along with the 52-54 Senate seats they will win.
 
Dutch Uncle said:
It's been predicted all year, dumbass.

From last March: https://www.cfr.org/blog/2022-midterm-congressional-elections-numbers
The 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections by the Numbers
History suggests that control of Congress will change after November’s midterm elections.
American politics has perhaps one ironclad rule: The sitting president’s party almost always loses House seats in the midterms. Going back to Harry Truman’s presidency, the president's party has lost, on average, twenty-nine House seats in each president’s first midterm election. Focusing on a president’s first midterm election here makes sense because 2022 will be President Joe Biden’s first—and perhaps, only—midterm election...
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Nate Silver (the topic of this OP) still thinks that D's will hold the Senate, and still have a sliver of a shot at holding the House, dumbass.
 
Dutch Uncle said:
Earlier in the year it was deemed likely to go Red too, but the SCOTUS decision was bad timing for an election year. While the Republicans are likely to take the House, their numbers may have dwindled a bit too because of the SCOTUS decision.

Notice how quiet they've been ever since. LOL
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The SCOTUS decision is a rather low priority for anyone other than undesirable mentally ill rainbow haired androgynous women who very few men, if any, want to have sex with them to begin with.
 
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gfm7175 said:
The Real Clear Politics "polling average" has Republicans up 2.3 points atm. That is even quite low from reality because Democrat pollsters purposely release ridiculously absurd polls (D's +5??!!!) in order to skew that average downward.

R's are coming in like Hurricane Ian, baby... Brace yourself... it's about to be a rough ride for you.
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Wow, you'd better be right or folks are going to throw this post back in your face.
 
Quote Originally Posted by LurchAddams View Post
And today, the "generic Dem" just pulled ahead again, asswipe.
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interesting......and which state is this "generic Dem" running in?........if he's lucky it will be a state where lots of CA and NY voters get to come vote for him.......
 
gfm7175 said:
The SCOTUS decision is a rather low priority for anyone other than undesirable mentally ill rainbow haired androgynous women who very few men, if any, want to have sex with them to begin with.
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Once again Sybil forgets to switch sock accounts before going full bonkers on JPP.

Your sexual fantasies aside, the fact remains the decision had impact. How much impact remains to be seen.
 
Dutch Uncle said:
Sybil would consider 51 Senators to be "coming in like Hurricane Ian, baby". Do you get the feeling he typed that one-handed?
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Anyone who thinks they know what kind of a country we're going to be 11/9? They don't. If the stakes were not so high, I'd be having fun watching it. There should have been a process to replace Fetterman with the Dem in the primaries who got the second highest number of votes. That's going to continue to be a real problem. The Dems need better messaging and better leadership as well.
 
LurchAddams said:
Anyone who thinks they know what kind of a country we're going to be 11/9? They don't. If the stakes were not so high, I'd be having fun watching it. There should have been a process to replace Fetterman with the Dem in the primaries who got the second highest number of votes. That's going to continue to be a real problem. The Dems need better messaging and better leadership as well.
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The Republicans will certainly take control of the House and possibly the Senate. In November 2024, Americans will be asked if the Republican Congress actually made a difference.

What is their agenda? Persecute more women? Death penalty for abortion? Only whites can marry? Cancellation of medical plans?

I suspect the only thing they'll do is cancel the investigation into Trump's Treason and then work to reelect Donald J. Trump to the White House.
 
Dutch Uncle said:
The Republicans will certainly take control of the House and possibly the Senate. In November 2024, Americans will be asked if the Republican Congress actually made a difference.

What is their agenda? Persecute more women? Death penalty for abortion? Only whites can marry? Cancellation of medical plans?

I suspect the only thing they'll do is cancel the investigation into Trump's Treason and then work to reelect Donald J. Trump to the White House.
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Their majority won't be enough to pass any draconian bullshit. They'll send anti-abortion and anti-gay and anti-woman bills to Biden's desk every day and Biden will just veto them. Like under Obama, when the idiots tried to outlaw Obamacare 50 times. They'll also hold hearing after hearing, like Benghazi, just to retaliate for the Dems trying to hold trump to account. "The Dems should not have messed with their fat, orange 'daddy'".

IF the Republicans take the house :)
 
LurchAddams said:
Their majority won't be enough to pass any draconian bullshit. They'll send anti-abortion and anti-gay and anti-woman bills to Biden's desk every day and Biden will just veto them. Like under Obama, when the idiots tried to outlaw Obamacare 50 times. They'll also hold hearing after hearing, like Benghazi, just to retaliate for the Dems trying to hold trump to account. "The Dems should not have messed with their fat, orange 'daddy'".

IF the Republicans take the house :)
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The odds favor the Republicans will take the House. The Senate is now a tossup rather than a sure-thing like earlier in the year.
 
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