Gallup: 2012 Election Trial Heat

Damocles

Damocles

Accedo!
Staff member
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

These are the results when registered voters are asked: "Suppose the presidential election were held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or Mitt Romney, the Republican?" Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama or Romney and their leanings are incorporated into the results.

Romney 48%
Obama 43%

And Romney wins in the "leaning towards" among the undecided as well.
 
Damocles said:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

These are the results when registered voters are asked: "Suppose the presidential election were held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or Mitt Romney, the Republican?" Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama or Romney and their leanings are incorporated into the results.

Romney 48%
Obama 43%

And Romney wins in the "leaning towards" among the undecided as well.
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CNN's poll has him ahead, but Ruetors and another poll have Obama ahead. Romney ns Obama have not debated, yet, and Gary Johnson hasn't stepped up to the plate, either.
 
It's hard to say this far out, but it does not look good for the president to me! I'm most Interested in Dixoe's prediction, that's the best indicator
 
LOL.

Anyone else notice that - according to righties - polls aren't reliable/valid etc. when they don't show a Republican winning?
 
Rana said:
CNN's poll has him ahead, but Ruetors and another poll have Obama ahead. Romney ns Obama have not debated, yet, and Gary Johnson hasn't stepped up to the plate, either.
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true....and we haven't started running the campaign ads asking why Obama should have four more years when he hasn't figured out what the fuck to do in the last four......
 
Rana said:
CNN's poll has him ahead, but Ruetors and another poll have Obama ahead. Romney ns Obama have not debated, yet, and Gary Johnson hasn't stepped up to the plate, either.
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I don't believe Johnson will have much impact. The LP has tried going for candidates with name recognition (e.g. Bob Barr), but they've never broken the 1 million vote mark. Johnson will get 700,000 votes tops.
 
Damocles said:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

These are the results when registered voters are asked: "Suppose the presidential election were held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or Mitt Romney, the Republican?" Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama or Romney and their leanings are incorporated into the results.

Romney 48%
Obama 43%

And Romney wins in the "leaning towards" among the undecided as well.
Click to expand...
Except that is really rather worthless polling data. POTUS is not elected by the popular vote. POTUS is elected by the electoral vote and going by the RCP data there are 9 to 11 swing States in play and that in the projected electoral vote count Obama has a significant lead 227 to 170 over Romney. So it's really boiling down to those swing States. In three of those swing States, Ohio, PA and FL Obama has significant leads. +8% in Ohio, +6% in PA and +5% in FL. All those are above the margin of error and if Obama wins all three of those States. He wins. If he wins Fl and OH or PA he wins. If he wins OH and PA he's only 5 electoral votes short. Considering that in the 11 swing states Obama leads in polling in 9 of those States, then he's in like Flint. So with Romney being behind in 9 of 11 swing States and significantly behind in 5 of those States (OH, PA, FL, CO & NV) Romney is in a deep hole and has his work cut out for him.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
 
RCP thinks Michigan is leaning to Obama.......I think he's actually in deep trouble there.....places like Detroit have lost 300,000 residents since 2008 who won't be voting for him in 12.......of the 600,000 who are left, 20% are unemployed.....they won't be voting for him in 12.....I will agree that he needs Florida in order to win.....and he won't get Florida......
 
Dixie, who will win the general election? Or are you still sure Herman Cain is going to pull it off?
 
PostmodernProphet said:
RCP thinks Michigan is leaning to Obama.......I think he's actually in deep trouble there.....places like Detroit have lost 300,000 residents since 2008 who won't be voting for him in 12.......of the 600,000 who are left, 20% are unemployed.....they won't be voting for him in 12.....I will agree that he needs Florida in order to win.....and he won't get Florida......
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RCP doesn't think anything. They just posted the most recent polls taken in michigan (and other States) and, for most, provides an average. Pretty much wishful thinking on your part. the RCP average shows Obama with 5% lead in Florida. Meaning if the election were held right now Obama would win Florida. Hell man, the very fact that Mitt is the nominee pretty much indicates that the vast majority of Americans have rejected those on the far right like you.

Oh and in case you haven't been paying attention. The unemployment rate in the entire State of michigan would be around 20% had Republicans had their way and let GM & Chrysler go bankrupt. Considering they are two of the largest high paying employers in the State with thousands of companies dependent on them (and vice versa) that's going to be a huge factor in why Republicans lose michigan. So I'd say your analysis is soooo far off base as to be laughable.

I can also tell you don't know a hell of a lot about Florida politics. You're taking it for Granted that Cuban expats and the morons on the redneck riveria will sweep Florida. What you're not calculating is the damage Republicans have done with their hostility towards latinos in immigration reform which has alienated large numbers of Cubanos who traditionally vote Republican. Then there's the fact that they have the most unpopular Governor in the nation, which boggles the mind considering how unpopular Kasich and Walker are.
 
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The radicals of the far right have been rejected by the conservative party, that's about as rejected as it gets for the right. In my book the election has already been 90% won no matter if Willard or the President win.
 
Jarod said:
The radicals of the far right have been rejected by the conservative party, that's about as rejected as it gets for the right. In my book the election has already been 90% won no matter if Willard or the President win.
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Wishfull thinking. There's still a hell of a lot of right wing ideologues in congress who are crippling our government. They're not going to be 90% gone after this election.
 
PSA: Looking at individual polls on individual dates is silly. If you want to look at a single pollster, it's best to do so over time for trends, not for specific individual poll results. Your best bet is to go by the poll aggregators like RCP or Talking Points Memo or Five Thirty Eight and the like.
 
General Buck Turgidson said:
PSA: Looking at individual polls on individual dates is silly. If you want to look at a single pollster, it's best to do so over time for trends, not for specific individual poll results. Your best bet is to go by the poll aggregators like RCP or Talking Points Memo or Five Thirty Eight and the like.
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agreed.
 
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