National Intelligence Estimate....October 2002
Six agencies of the US Intelligence Community (15 agencies), Iraq’s Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction (U.S. CIA, NIE: National Intelligence Estimate, October 1 2002, 90 pages), secret, authorship unknown, personal responsibility, George Tenet (Director of Central intelligence), these excerpts released July 18 2003 in an off-the-record White House press briefing by a “senior administration official” who subsequently identified himself on-the-record (July 22) as Dan Bartlett, White House Director of Communications. –CJHjr
-----------------------------------------
Confidence Levels for Selected Key Judgments in This Estimate
High Confidence:
• Iraq is continuing, and in some areas expanding its chemical, biological, nuclear and missile programs contrary to UN resolutions.
• We are not detecting portions of these weapons programs.
• Iraq possesses proscribed chemical and biological weapons and missiles.
• Iraq could make a nuclear weapon in months to a year once if acquires sufficient weapons-grade fissile material.
Moderate Confidence:
• Iraq does not yet have a nuclear weapon or sufficient material to make one but is likely to have a weapon by 2007 to 2009. (See INR alternative view, page 84).
Low Confidence:
• When Saddam would use weapons of mass destruction.
• Whether Saddam would engage in clandestine attacks against the US Homeland.
• Whether in desperation Saddam would share chemical or biological weapons with al-Qa'ida.
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/jksonc/docs/nie-iraq-wmd.htm