𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗯𝗲 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝘄𝗮𝗺𝗽 𝗱𝗿𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲 𝗰𝘂𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸𝘀 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲...

[Dutch Uncle]

I have this same argument with @T. A. Gardner on almost every area of technology and you nailed him.

His biggest point is some version of 'it was not competitive dozens or hundreds of years ago so that is proof it cannot and will not be today or in the future'.

He often cites studies counting on people to not look at source and that if fully read contradict what he is saying.

I nailed him after he said 'EV's can never be competitive and that was proven in the early 1900's when ICE beat them and nothing has changed since then to impact the debate.'

It was about as stupid an argument as anyone can make but he pushed it anyway but when pushed he destroyed his own argument admitting EV's were better than ICE when they had mostly equal playing fields (no gas stations no Charging stations) even though ICE fuel was portable back then.

He has tried to back peddle from that accidental admission, i got out of him, ever since.

He pulls ideas out of his ass and calls them facts. Notice there were no actual numbers, facts or other evidence other than opinion in his post. I believe he's unwell.

Those sources are wrong because they don't account for solar and wind being part of a 24/7 system.

For example, in the second article, the LCOE is calculated as:

Lazard calculates an energy resource's levelized cost, or LCOE, by dividing a project's lifetime energy production by its cost.

That calculation is utter bullshit when you consider that electricity is needed 24 hours a day, every day. All it does is look at the cost of that power plant, not the cost of generating electricity 24/7. When you start calculating electrical production on the basis of a 24-hour day, all of a sudden solar and wind are completely duplicative and / or grotesquely unaffordable.

The way you need to calculate the TRUE cost of wind and solar is treat them as part of a larger generation system in which they are intermittent sources. That is, they generate electricity only part of the time. To do that you start with the nameplate capacity of the generation plant and multiply that by the plant's rated capacity factor. The first is the amount of power the plant can generate maximum. The second is the amount, on average, that it actually generates over time.

Solar plants have capacity factors typically between 20 and 25%. Wind plants have a capacity factor, typically, between 30 and 40%.

For a solar plant, it doesn't generate at all when the sun is down. This means you need some alternative to supply power at night, on cloudy days, etc. If you want to try and do that with solar what you need is to install a minimum of FIVE (5) times the needed capacity in solar panels and then build, in addition 3 to 5 kw of storage for each kw of power generated and dispatched (used).

When you do that, the Lazard calculation suddenly makes solar ungodly expensive compared to every other means of generation.

The alternative is building a second, conventional, plant like a natural gas or diesel one that picks up the load when solar isn't available. That means you now are paying to build TWO power plants and run both part of the time.

Wind is little better. The same choices have to be made. Either you build in extra capacity and lots of storage or you build a second, duplicate plant.

THAT is why wind and solar are total losers for energy production. They are so unreliable as to require either an unaffordable amount of storage capacity or you build duplicate means of generation. With the latter, it's simply cheaper to not do wind and solar and just build the reliable, alternative plant.

The cheapest combination is nuclear backed by natural gas. Nuclear is your base loading generator as it has massive, huge, capacity and a capacity factor of 95 to 98%. This generates 70 to 80% of your electricity day in and day out, all day long. The other 20 to 30% is the variable load that fluctuates during each day. For that you build natural gas peaking plants that can come online or go offline fairly rapidly. They are flexible enough to meet that variable load without issues.

Solar and wind are total losers as generation sources. The most idiotic version is rooftop home solar. That is insanely inefficient and costly.

 

[Guno צְבִי]

Why? I've watched you bitch, moan and whine about renewable energy sources and electric cars for six years, Terry. No one is going to change your mind no matter what proof is offered.

The fact your are acting like a rebellious teenager is just another indication that you are no longer the man who retired from the United States Navy as a Chief.

Terry would be a good Admiral in the Swiss Navy

 

[T. A. Gardner]

He pulls ideas out of his ass and calls them facts. Notice there were no actual numbers, facts or other evidence other than opinion in his post. I believe he's unwell.

It's this simple:

With solar power:

You have a plant that has a capacity factor of 20%. You want to produce one kw-day of power. That means you need, at a minimum, 5 kw of installed solar generation to produce that.

Capacity Factor - Definition & Detailed Explanation - Wind Energy Glossary Terms - CleanEnergyBusinessCouncil.com

Capacity factor is a crucial metric used in the energy industry to measure the efficiency of a power plant or energy generation system. It is defined as the

cleanenergybusinesscouncil.com

What are capacity factors and why are they important?

The capacity factor is a crucial measure for electricity generation. It represents the ratio of actual electrical energy production to the maximum possible output over a specific period. Nuclear plants lead with a 90%+ factor, while renewable sources like wind and solar struggle due to...

visualizingenergy.org

Since the sun doesn't shine 24 hours a day, you must produce all 24 kw of power while it's up and shining. That means you have to have some storage medium to put the power in for when the sun goes down. So, let's say you need 16 hours of storage capacity to ensure that you get that kilowatt-day. That leaves 8 hours at something near full production rate to make it with your 5 kw of installed panels.

The breakdown on that is 1 kw of installed solar is producing the needed power while the sun is up. 3 to 4 kw of installed panels are producing power going to storage since the array isn't going to be anywhere close to 100% efficient this gives some leeway for production to meet the goal.

The commercial cost of solar power per KW is $1.50 to $2.50. We'll split the difference and say it's $2.00.

Commercial Solar Panel Cost: The Ultimate 2025 Guide for Businesses - Energy America

This guide delves deeply into commercial solar panel costs, breaking down every expense component, explaining financing pathways, and offering insights to

ea-global.us

So, the solar panels cost $10.00. Batteries cost between $280 and $580 a KW installed. I'll give a break here and charge these off at $250 a KW.

The Real Cost of Commercial Battery Energy Storage in 2026: What You Need to Know | GSL Energy

With fluctuating energy prices and the growing urgency of sustainability goals, commercial battery energy storage has become an increasingly attractive energy storage solution for businesses. But what will the real cost of commercial energy storage s

www.gsl-energy.com

That means 16 x $250 = $4000 in batteries.

Toss in the cost of the inverter (DC to AC power), other equipment, and of course, land all at say, $5,000.

Total cost of 1 kw-day of solar from our plant = $9000. The cost of the panels is negligible.

Now, if you have a natural gas plant that can run 24/7 and is only periodically shut down on a schedule that's known well ahead of time, it runs $1,500 to $1,600 a kw. Toss in the same incidental costs for land and the fuel at $5000.

Natural gas is far cheaper, about 30% cheaper than solar.

Any way you cut it, solar is outrageously expensive to build and operate because it is intermittent. Storage is unaffordable and the alternative is building a fossil fuel conventional generation plant to duplicate the solar generation.

Prove me wrong. Notice, you are still a moron. Maybe you can get somebody to do the math for you to double check this.

 

[Dutch Uncle]

Terry would be a good Admiral in the Swiss Navy

LOL Good one!

 

[Dutch Uncle]

The grift never ends with that disgusting chunk of blubber.

"The Trump Organization has begun selling red hats online with the slogan "Trump 2028" embroidered in bright white along the front, as well as T-shirts with the slogan.

The hats were listed for $50 with the description: "The future looks bright! Rewrite the rules with the Trump 2028 high crown hat. Fully embroidered with a snap closure in the back, this will become your new go-to hat."

The shirts, at $36, also feature the phrase “Rewrite the Rules.”

View attachment 79214

All MAGAts are anti-Americans who support shredding the Constitution and installing an white nationalist autocracy.

 

[christiefan915]

All MAGAts are anti-Americans who support shredding the Constitution and installing an white nationalist autocracy.

My thinking is that trump would try to sidestep the Constitution and rule that he's eligible for a third term. And his sheep would concur.

 

[Dutch Uncle]

My thinking is that trump would try to sidestep the Constitution and rule that he's eligible for a third term. And his sheep would concur.

Agreed. He's really that deranged.

OTOH, I think he'll try something with the Midterms first. How that turns out will indicate which way the wind is blowing for him running for a third term.

My prediction is:
1. Massive protests.
2. Trump cracks down and murders hundreds of Americans.
3. A lot of MAGA morons end up dead. Anyone with a Trump sticker, flag or other merch won't see Election '28.
4. America returns to normal.