US Q4 2025 GDP Growth Estimate, a Very Strong 5.3%

[Walt]

It's MUCH lower than it was under the Autopen, and it will continue to decrease.

Biden got it down to 2.4% at the lowest. Neither have been able to get it down to 2%. Seriously doubt it will just solve itself like you claim, but anything is possible.

Yes. You'll see it sometime during the Summer of this year, a few months before the midterms. It might not be for exactly $2K, but there will be a "tariff check" for some similar amount that gets sent out this Summer.

trump is addicted to giving out "free money", but I hope you are wrong. trump has already taken us to the worst deficit we have ever seen outside of emergencies. Increasing it by another $700 billion would be painful.

The "tariff checks" will be limited by some sort of income level, and they are already paid for by tariff revenue.

So I will not get the check? It cannot be paid for by tariff revenue, because we are in deep deficit. There is no extra money.

By that time, Trump will have already appointed a new Fed Chair who will have already reduced rates like Powell should have been doing a long time ago.

As I said, Fed credibility on inflation will be long since gone.

You've bragged up the AtlantaFed model in the past, as I've shown here.

I said it had a good model, in the past. I did not say it was my "favorite model." I am not nerdy enough to have a "favorite model."

And there has been extreme cuts in the data collection, so all models are questionable now.

 

[Phantasmal]

I’d love a strong economy, but with contracts going away, the dollar dropping and job losses, I’m very skeptical.

 

[Jake Starkey]

The GDP is very good. 2.7 to 3.0 Fed is too high.

Trump want's low interest rates, but the market needs to be watched for a month or two. He does not care for any of us, only Big Business.

 

[gfm7175]

Biden got it down to 2.4% at the lowest.

Biden didn't do anything other than angrily make some nonsensical statements while wandering about aimlessly while pooping himself. Whoever was operating the Autopen is who was actually running the show.

What was it up to at the highest?

trump is addicted to giving out "free money", but I hope you are wrong.

So you won't be taking a single penny of it, then?

trump has already taken us to the worst deficit we have ever seen outside of emergencies.

Lie.

Increasing it by another $700 billion would be painful.

I thought you just said "nearly a trillion"...?? Now it's down to $700 billion?
Nothing would be "added to the deficit", Walter... It's quite literally opening up the coffers of the additional revenue from Trump's tariffs and distributing some of it to We The People.

So I will not get the check?

If you're "rich rich" then probably not. If you're "poor" or 'middle class", then you would get one.

It cannot be paid for by tariff revenue,

It sure can be.

because we are in deep deficit.

which is being reduced by the rest of the additional tariff revenue.

I said it had a good model, in the past.

No, you said it HAS a good model (present tense). Your words are right there for all to see, Walter.

Of course, maybe you've changed your mind since then and you legitimately no longer believe their model to be good. If so, then I'd have to ask you what specifically has changed about their model from then to now that made it worse now than it was then?

Or, I could just spare everyone their time (and your predictable flailing around like a fish out of water) and note that the reason why you don't like the AtlantaFed model anymore (even though you did before) is because they're now predicting a 5.4% Q4 2025 GDP and you don't want the GDP to be that high because "Orange Man Bad Hitler NO KINGS" blah blah blah. IOW, your "favorite model" is whichever model predicts the lowest GDP figure. IOW, this is all about "Orange Man Bad" (and nothing else).

I did not say it was my "favorite model." I am not nerdy enough to have a "favorite model."

Yes, "AProudLefty", I do realize that you didn't use the exact words "AtlantaFed is my favorite model". However, it's the only one that you have (multiple times) made reference to with me (and have bragged up their accuracy).

And there has been extreme cuts in the data collection, so all models are questionable now.

.... except for the one that's estimating a very low Q4 2025 GDP, of course...

 

[gfm7175]

I’d love a strong economy,

Stop lying, Phanty. You've been rooting (and voting) for exactly the opposite.

but with contracts going away,

You are ignoring contracts coming in.

the dollar dropping

This is a part of The Plan.

This means that imports increase in cost and exports decrease in cost (great for domestic industry).
This means that the trade deficit reduces.
This means that domestic jobs increase.
This means that GDP skyrockets.
This reduces "globalism".

Like I said, this is a part of The Plan.

and job losses,

You are ignoring job gains.

I’m very skeptical.

No you're not. You gleefully gobble up every single lie that the leftist media tells you.

 

[Jake Starkey]

gfm7175, "Biden didn't do anything other than angrily make some nonsensical statements while wandering about aimlessly while pooping himself. Whoever was operating the Autopen is who was actually running the show.

What was it up to at the highest?"

Jake Starkey: Biden got it down to 2.4% from a very high Trump-caused interest rate.

But then we can play the game and point out the high of UE was 14.8% under Trump.