US Q4 2025 GDP Growth Estimate, a Very Strong 5.3%

[Jake Starkey]

Horse shit. Working Americans are seeing the best wage increases in years, easily outpacing inflation.

See the desperate left freaking out over good news for Americans.

That is why working Americans cannot afford 'affordability.'

 

[Walt]

Annual growth for 2025 is likely to be 2.5-3.0 %...strong AND SUSTANABLE.

Biden's first year(2021) saw 5.7% growth.

 

[Jake Starkey]

We all want the economy to do well.

AI could cause some problems. Good news is that unemployment has seem to stabilize.

 

[Grokmaster]

That is why working Americans cannot afford 'affordability.'

Beating back the B9iden damage steadily....

 

[Jake Starkey]

Biden is gone and your 'whataboutism' has no force or utility.

 

[Nordberg]

Trump fired the IGs. Trump broomed professionals out of agencies and replaced them with sycophants. They will say what he wants. Trump took care of that at the beginning of his term. They have no legitimacy now. They will say what he tells them to.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Trump fired the IGs. Trump broomed professionals out of agencies and replaced them with sycophants. They will say what he wants. Trump took care of that at the beginning of his term. They have no legitimacy now. They will say what he tells them to.

They had no legitimacy then.....they were Swamp enforcers.

 

[Jake Starkey]

The point is that they are not reliable now.

 

[Jake Starkey]

 

[Jake Starkey]

Release the Epstein files before the orange madman wrecks the whole planet. fr: Street Art Utopia.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Release the Epstein files before the orange madman wrecks the whole planet. fr: Street Art Utopia.

View attachment 72481

U R 1 Stupid MotherFucker.

Trump is a symptom not a prime mover.

Education is essential.

 

[Jake Starkey]

 

[gfm7175]

Do you feel like there is 5.3% growth?

I suspect that both @Tobytone and @IBDaMann will likewise get a huge laugh out of this response of yours.

So, to get the class up to date, Walter's favorite model (AtlantaFed) is currently predicting a 5.3% topline GDP figure for Q4 2025 (which they've, since Grok's original post, increased to 5.4%, and I think they're releasing a new number today... it constantly gets updated, you see). Anyway, they're now predicting a super high Q4 2025 GDP figure, and they usually end up being a bit lower than the official number (which will preliminarily be released in about 3 weeks), so it wouldn't be surprising if the Q4 number is actually at or above 6%. I thought that tariffs were supposed to be the world's end...?? I digress.

Let's remember that Walter, along with the rest of "JPP's finest", was celebrating the "very poor" Q1 2025 topline GDP figure, even getting all giddy about an "upcoming recession" (or "two negative GDP figures in a row"). In fact, right on the very day that this figure was released, Walter predicted that the S&P 500 "[would] be well under 5,000 by September 30th" (it actually closed at 6,688.46 on that day, well OVER 5,000). Anyway, on the very same day as Walter made his horribly-failed S&P 500 prediction (Apr 30th), I made my Q2 GDP prediction. I predicted that it would be much higher than Q1 (and I was correct). Walter ho-hummed about the Q2 number. Then Q3 came around, and it ended up even higher than Q2. Walter still ho-hummed about the Q3 number.

Now, in the present moment, AtlantaFed is "modeling" an even-higher-yet Q4 GDP figure (currently 5.4%), a figure so high that Walter can't even bring himself to ho-hum about it anymore. I mean, excluding the "post-COVID" spike in GDP (due to actually allowing businesses to conduct business once more), the GDP hasn't been above 5% since 1984. It's a truly AMAZING number, and since Walter can no longer bring himself to ho-hum about the number not being "high enough" for "long enough"), Walter is now aggressively crossing his arms and appealing to his FEELINGS rather than the actual number itself.

Aweeeeee, poor Wally doesn't FEEL like GDP growth is 5.3%
(I suspect it'll officially be higher than AtlantaFed's "model")

Nevertheless, Wally will STILL make claim to the various new tax deductions on his 2025 tax return (all thanks to PRESIDENT TRUMP). Wally will also make claim to his $2,000 "tariff check" when it happens later this Summer (again, all thanks to PRESIDENT TRUMP). Meanwhile, Wally will continue to bitch about President Trump, his economic policies, and his tariffs, even though they are quite literally putting more money into his own pocketbook. Wally will, instead, continue to vote for the leftists who keep stealing large sums of cash from his own pocketbook, because, well, "ORANGE MAN BAD" or something... "HITLER! HITLER!" "NO KINGS!" blah blah blah... What a dope!

Given that many employees get 5% raises based on seniority, is everyone in your life getting 10 to 20 percent raises?

Inflation is very low right now, so it currently only takes a very small pay raise each year in order to keep up with it. This concept is called "purchasing power". Under President Trump (both times), purchasing power has went up. Under the Autopen Regime (or under any Democrat or "RINO", but now I'm repeating myself), purchasing power goes down.

Maybe it is doing better than I [am programmed to] think. It is certainly possible [definite that] the economy is doing better outside my immediate social circles [Democrat-controlled localities], and that I do not [the leftist media that I absorb blinds me from] know[ing] it.

FTFY.

When trump's government predicts 5.3% growth, or even 20+% growth,

Since when is YOUR FAVORITE MODEL, the AtlantaFed model, "Trump's government"???
C'mon Walter, you're sinking to a new low here... You can do better than this...

I dismiss it as a clumsy lie.

You're not dismissing it as a lie. Instead, you are aggressively crossing your arms and appealing to "your FEELINGS" instead of the data itself. Remember, you opened this response of yours by asking if one FEELS like there is 5.3% GDP growth.

You now wholly accept that the Q4 GDP number is going to be HISTORIC, and much higher than you ever imagined possible under "evil Orange Man Bad Hitler King Trump", thus you are now fleeing from that number and instead appealing to YOUR FEELINGS.

Pathetic, even for you.

It is possible that we will see a major jump in growth later in the year, and end up at 5.3%,

"Later in the year" already happened, Walter. It is now 2026. Q4 2025 has already come and gone.

Your self-admitted FAVORITE MODEL, AtlantaFed, the one that you were bragging about how accurate it is and the one that you go by and blah blah blah, is currently estimating a 5.4% topline GDP figure for Q4 2025. So far, for each of Q1-Q3 2025, their estimation has been LOWER than the official figure. If that happens again, then you're looking at a 6+% GDP for Q4. Outside of the COVID anomaly, this hasn't happened since 1984. This is HISTORIC!

but that is unlikely, and not a reasonable prediction.

It's YOUR OWN SELF-ADMITTED FAVORITE MODEL, WALTER.................. Now you all of a sudden hate it because it is currently predicting a GDP figure that you thought to be impossible under President Trump? What a dope!

20+% is just insane, and is not possible.

Nobody said anything about 20+%, Walter... Stop making shit up.

That sounds more accurate.

Here, Walter's word "that" is referring to S&P Global Ratings predicting a much lower Q4 2025 GDP figure than AtlantaFed is predicting. This is jaw-dropping entertainment right here, folks... Walter, who has always LOVED the AtlantaFed model, now all of a sudden HATES it and now all of a sudden loves this S&P Global Ratings prediction, solely because it is much lower than other predictions.

You see, Walter WANTS the GDP figure to be as low as possible. Walter WANTS the GDP figure to be bad (because Orange Man Bad). Once again, for Walter, this is ultimately ALL about TRUMP (and nothing else).

TDS is truly remarkable in just how much it negatively affects people.

The sales figures for department stores were terrible, and the sales figures for online shopping were not great,

Lies.

so it might go negative.

Walter seriously thinks that the Q4 2025 GDP figure has a chance of going negative.

You're killing me, man!

Obviously consumer sales are unusually important for fourth quarters.

Poor Walter........

 

[Walt]

Inflation is very low right now

2.7% is not "very low" for inflation these days. It would have been impressive 50 years ago, but right now it is much too high. Biden was able to get it close to 2%, but both Biden and trump have been able to get the last bit done.

Then again, it might be much lower than 2.7%. The Fed is only getting half the prices they are supposed to be getting, so that 2.7% is not reliable. It might be 2%, OR it might be 4%.

Wally will also make claim to his $2,000 "tariff check" when it happens later this Summer (again, all thanks to PRESIDENT TRUMP).

I am sorry, you really believe there is a $2,000 tariff check coming? That would work out to be nearly a trillion dollars added to the deficit, when the deficit is out of control, and there is no emergency. If it happened this Summer, it would happen right as the Fed would be losing credibility on fighting inflation, so would cause inflation to jump on expectations, and then probably again on facts.

YOUR OWN SELF-ADMITTED FAVORITE MODEL

You keep saying that, but I have never said anything like that.

 

[gfm7175]

Hey, Yagina. You know any "estimate" from the trump administration means the opposite. When are you going to learn you sorry little Nazi beeyach!

The AtlantaFed model is not the Trump Administration.

 

[gfm7175]

Saks Global declared bankruptcy a week ago.

So what? Businesses go bankrupt all the time, even during the best of times.

Maybe we won't slip into a recession,

Does this make you sad?

but 20+% growth is not possible.

Nobody said anything about 20+% growth.

Even 5.3% growth seems unlikely to me.

This is what YOUR FAVORITE ATLANTAFED MODEL is predicting atm. We'll get some official preliminary figures in about three weeks.

 

[gfm7175]

Does America look 5.3% healthier economically from where you live?

We are now lied to constantly.

That's not what GDP is, Hawkeye...

 

[gfm7175]

You can see the working classes are suffering here in the West.

What does "here in the West" mean? Seattle? Portland? LA?

 

[LurchAddams]

The AtlantaFed model is not the Trump Administration.

Go back to bed.

 

[gfm7175]

2.7% is not "very low" for inflation these days. It would have been impressive 50 years ago, but right now it is much too high. Biden was able to get it close to 2%, but both Biden and trump have been able to get the last bit done.

It's MUCH lower than it was under the Autopen, and it will continue to decrease.

I am sorry, you really believe there is a $2,000 tariff check coming?

Yes. You'll see it sometime during the Summer of this year, a few months before the midterms. It might not be for exactly $2K, but there will be a "tariff check" for some similar amount that gets sent out this Summer.

That would work out to be nearly a trillion dollars added to the deficit,

Wrong. The "tariff checks" will be limited by some sort of income level, and they are already paid for by tariff revenue. It's not adding ANYTHING to "the deficit". This isn't like the "COVID" "stimulus" checks.

If it happened this Summer, it would happen right as the Fed would be losing credibility on fighting inflation, so would cause inflation to jump on expectations, and then probably again on facts.

By that time, Trump will have already appointed a new Fed Chair who will have already reduced rates like Powell should have been doing a long time ago.

You keep saying that, but I have never said anything like that.

Hmmmm, let's see here......

The Atlanta Fed model is usually fairly close.

The Atlanta Fed has a good model for now casting the GDP. Now casting is when you forecast the future numbers on the current situation. It has been making some amazing strides in the last decade or so.

It is not exact, but gives a good range. If we do get 4+%, as you predict, we will have to really rethink the models that are so off.

Walter, you have to remember that your past posts are public record that anyone can look up and make reference to. You've bragged up the AtlantaFed model in the past, as I've shown here.

BTW, "we" "did get" 3.8% (final release for Q2 2025), which is pretty dang close to my 4+% prediction that was made MONTHS before even the preliminary data was released. Meanwhile, AtlantaFed was estimating a mere 2% just a few days before the preliminary data release.

Apparently you're now "rethinking the models that are so off", but only because they're now predicting a much higher number than you'd like to see (rather than missing TOO LOW by almost 2%)...