Here are the biggest historical wins that used the exact same “tariff threat → forced negotiation → fixed imbalance” playbook that Trump is running in 2025.
Every single one ended with the other country caving and the tariff disappearing, AFAIK.
- France & Germany forgot who they owed their freedom to, and slapped huge tariffs on American chicken imports.
LBJ responded with a 25% tariff on European brandy, light trucks (the famous “Chicken Tax” that's still on pickup trucks today), and potato starch.
Within 18 months: Europe suddenly remembered they'd' still be goose-stepping if Uncle Sam hadn't bailed them out, and cut their poultry tariffs by 60%, U.S. chicken exports doubled, LBJ removed everything except the truck tax. - Cheap Japanese cars flooded the U.S., Detroit laid off 300,000 workers. Reagan threatened 25% tariffs + quotas. Japan suddenly remembered Hiroshima and Nagasaki and surrendered again. They capped their car exports at 1.68 million/year and built factories in Ohio, Tennessee, and Kentucky, and American autoworkers got jobs. The U.S. auto trade deficit with Japan fell 40% in four years; the tariffs were never actually imposed. But the Japanese knew the Gipper, and they folded.
- Canada dumped subsidized lumber on American markets five times, so the reminded them who the big dog was and slapped 20–35% tariffs on Canuck timber. Every time, Canada ran to the negotiating table and signed a quota deal. Slow learners, eh?
- Brazil banned U.S. computer imports to protect its own industry, so Reagan threatened 100% tariffs on Brazilian steel, orange juice, and shoes. Brazil blinked, ran the numbers and opened its market completely; Ronnie never had to use the tariffs. The threat was enough.
- Korea Korea banned U.S. rice imports entirely. Blow Job Bill threatened to slap tariffs on Korean cars, TVs, and semiconductors. Korea agreed to import 50,000 tons → 400,000 tons by 2004. The threat worked.
- China was blasting American industries and jobs with subsidized crap made by slave labor. Trump hit $380 bn of Chinese goods with 7.5–25% tariffs. China retaliated, then lost $40 bn in exports and saw its stock market crash 30%. China cried uncle and signed Phase One, and promised $200 bn extra U.S. purchases + Intellectual Property reforms. Trump immediately cut tariffs on $120 bn of Chinese goods from 15% to 7.5%.
- Mexico refused to let U.S. trucks cross the border. Trump threatened 25% tariffs on all Mexican goods. Three days later Mexico remembered the Alamo and caved.
- U.S. announces brutal tariff on foreign countries that tried to fuck with the USA
- Their exporters scream, their stock markets drop, their farmers bitch
- The foreigners beg for a deal
- U.S. gains parity, tariff suspended, reduced, or removed entirely
Worked in 1963.
Works in 2025.
Same playbook
