Atlanta Fed Q3 US GDP Growth Estimate: a VERY STRONG 3.8%...again

[Grokmaster]

Looks like the experts might well continue to be wrong...not too shabby, as unemployment also remains at 4.3%....



GDP Now...from the Atlanta fed




The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, which provides a real-time estimate, forecasts U.S. Q3 2025 real GDP growth at 3.8 percent as of October 7, 2025, unchanged from its October 1 update. This estimate is based on the latest economic data available, such as the recent Nonmanufacturing ISM Report on Business.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

 

[Grokmaster]

 

[Poor Richard Saunders]

Looks like the experts might well continue to be wrong...not too shabby, as unemployment also remains at 4.3%....



GDP Now...from the Atlanta fed




The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, which provides a real-time estimate, forecasts U.S. Q3 2025 real GDP growth at 3.8 percent as of October 7, 2025, unchanged from its October 1 update. This estimate is based on the latest economic data available, such as the recent Nonmanufacturing ISM Report on Business.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

NY fed predicts 2.3% growth

New York Fed Staff Nowcast

The report tracks the evolution of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast of GDP growth and the impact of new data releases on the forecast.

resources.newyorkfed.org

Philly Fed's survey of forecasters predicts 1.3% growth

Third Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters

Third Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters

www.philadelphiafed.org

We won't know as long as the GOP keeps the government closed.
The GOP controls the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The House has been on vacation during the shut down and refuses to negotiate.
Trump has gone golfing, said he would negotiate then said he wouldn't negotiate.

 

[Grokmaster]

NY fed predicts 2.3% growth

New York Fed Staff Nowcast

The report tracks the evolution of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast of GDP growth and the impact of new data releases on the forecast.

resources.newyorkfed.org

Philly Fed's survey of forecasters predicts 1.3% growth

Third Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters

Third Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters

www.philadelphiafed.org

We won't know as long as the GOP keeps the government closed.
The GOP controls the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The House has been on vacation during the shut down and refuses to negotiate.
Trump has gone golfing, said he would negotiate then said he wouldn't negotiate.

Which would also be excellent....and sustainable.

You're unhappy with the Atlanta Fed's numbers....bitch at them.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Which would also be excellent....and sustainable.

You're unhappy with the Atlanta Fed's numbers....bitch at them.

We are now lied to constantly.

 

[Hawkeye10]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1976109971260702812

View: https://x.com/DowdEdward/status/1976109971260702812

 

[Poor Richard Saunders]

Which would also be excellent....and sustainable.

You're unhappy with the Atlanta Fed's numbers....bitch at them.

I am pointing out that it is silly to rely on one prediction as if that was going to be true. The last two Atlanta Fed predictions were off by almost 1 percentage point.

 

[Walt]

Without AI investment, growth would be about 0.1%. That means the people not involved with AI are in near recession conditions.

But we have AI investment, and as long as trump does not disrupt... Oh, problem. trump being disruptive means that there is a good chance that we will have an AI bubble burst. Which puts us in a recession.

Without data centers, GDP growth was 0.1% in the first half of 2025, Harvard economist says | Fortune

Is a U.S. without data centers a country without GDP growth?

fortune.com

 

[cawacko]

Without AI investment, growth would be about 0.1%. That means the people not involved with AI are in near recession conditions.

But we have AI investment, and as long as trump does not disrupt... Oh, problem. trump being disruptive means that there is a good chance that we will have an AI bubble burst. Which puts us in a recession.

Without data centers, GDP growth was 0.1% in the first half of 2025, Harvard economist says | Fortune

Is a U.S. without data centers a country without GDP growth?

fortune.com

AI is bigger than any one administration. And just like the dot com bubble (which I'm assuming you blame Clinton for popping), the AI bubble could burst but the technology itself isn't going anywhere.

But Trump has been very pro AI. We see the battle in California from people who want more regulation on it and think Trump is going too light.

 

[Walt]

And just like the dot com bubble (which I'm assuming you blame Clinton for popping)

When the dot com bubble burst, we did not have a recession.

Anyway, trump is making it more difficult to get the resources for AGI. I doubt he even understands the issue, or even knows it exists.

But Trump has been very pro AI.

Not in my universe. Your universe sounds neat. You should probably stop posting in this universe, and spend all your time in your universe.

 

[cawacko]

When the dot com bubble burst, we did not have a recession.

Anyway, trump is making it more difficult to get the resources for AGI. I doubt he even understands the issue, or even knows it exists.


Not in my universe. Your universe sounds neat. You should probably stop posting in this universe, and spend all your time in your universe.

When the dot-com bubble burst we went into recession in March 2001. Did that not really happen? Is it up for debate now?

Please explain how trump is making it more difficult to get resources for AGI.

I'll share just one article from our local paper.

Beware of Trump’s unregulated ‘golden age’ of AI​

The president’s AI ‘action plan’ consists of deregulating the nascent industry, exploiting public lands and escalating an arms race with China​

If you're "pro AI" none of that is bad. What I'm saying has nothing do with being pro or anti Trump. It's simply stating his position. It's like arguing Trump is against tariffs or something.

 

[Walt]

When the dot-com bubble burst we went into recession in March 2001

When the dot-com bubble burst in March of 2000, we had a recession a year later?

 

[cawacko]

When the dot-com bubble burst in March of 2000, we had a recession a year later?

Walt, I’m actually laughing out loud. I’m picturing one of my old jobs, sitting in a meeting with CalPERS. We managed hundreds of millions of dollars for them, and our lead economist is giving an overview of the economy. At one point he’s talking about the dot-com crash and the recession that followed.

And I’m picturing you jumping in to say, “Well no sir, the dot-com bubble officially burst in March 2000 so the recession should’ve started that same month. Therefore, what you’re saying is wrong and we’re taking all our money and leaving."

 

[Truth Detector]

Looks like the experts might well continue to be wrong...not too shabby, as unemployment also remains at 4.3%....



GDP Now...from the Atlanta fed




The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, which provides a real-time estimate, forecasts U.S. Q3 2025 real GDP growth at 3.8 percent as of October 7, 2025, unchanged from its October 1 update. This estimate is based on the latest economic data available, such as the recent Nonmanufacturing ISM Report on Business.

GDPNow

GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

www.atlantafed.org

This is going to trigger the unhinged morons on the left.

 

[Truth Detector]

NY fed predicts 2.3% growth

New York Fed Staff Nowcast

The report tracks the evolution of the New York Fed Staff Nowcast of GDP growth and the impact of new data releases on the forecast.

resources.newyorkfed.org

Philly Fed's survey of forecasters predicts 1.3% growth

Third Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters

Third Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters

www.philadelphiafed.org

We won't know as long as the GOP keeps the government closed.
The GOP controls the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate.
The House has been on vacation during the shut down and refuses to negotiate.
Trump has gone golfing, said he would negotiate then said he wouldn't negotiate.

The GOP isn't keeping the Fed closed halfwit. Schumer and the brainless Democrats are. Apparently, you support government shut downs which is kind of stupid.

 

[Truth Detector]

We are now lied to constantly by the leftist media and Democrats.

FIFY

 

[Truth Detector]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1976109971260702812

View: https://x.com/DowdEdward/status/1976109971260702812

So, when are you selling off your 401K stocks?

 

[Poor Richard Saunders]

The GOP isn't keeping the Fed closed halfwit. Schumer and the brainless Democrats are. Apparently, you support government shut downs which is kind of stupid.

Sure.. When was the last date that the House held a session? Hint - the House has been closed the entire time of the shutdown.
When has Trump agreed to meet anyone to negotiate and end to the the shutdown? Hint - Never

It appears it is the GOP that is refusing to do anything to try to reopen the government.
The GOP in the Senate has voted down a plan to reopen the government 5 times since the government shut down.

 

[Truth Detector]

I am pointing out that it is silly to rely on one prediction as if that was going to be true. The last two Atlanta Fed predictions were off by almost 1 percentage point.

No, what you are trying to do is downplay good news.

 

[Truth Detector]

Without AI investment, growth would be about 0.1%. That means the people not involved with AI are in near recession conditions.

But we have AI investment, and as long as trump does not disrupt... Oh, problem. trump being disruptive means that there is a good chance that we will have an AI bubble burst. Which puts us in a recession.

Without data centers, GDP growth was 0.1% in the first half of 2025, Harvard economist says | Fortune

Is a U.S. without data centers a country without GDP growth?

fortune.com

Wrong.