Quarter 2 GDP is, you guessed it, "higher than expected"

gfm7175

gfm7175

Mega MAGA
Yes, boys and girls, Q2's GDP number was released, and it was (predictably) "higher than expected". --- It ended up being 3.0%.

HERE IS THE DATA

I waited all morning to see if any of JPP's libtards would make a thread about this "good news" (like they quickly rushed to do after the Q1 "bad news" number came out), but alas... ZERO threads about it. Nothing but complete silence. Why is that?

1) 3% is much higher than they were expecting it to be. To be fair, Walt at least thought that it would be a positive number, but numerous JPP members were expecting two negative results in a row so that they could scream "RECESSION!" at the top of their lungs. Whoops!

2) They have yet to receive their software update regarding what to parrot about this GDP report. Chucky Schumer has already referred to this Q2 result as a "mirage", so maybe they'll go with that?? We'll have to wait and see...........


I was VERY adamant, way back on April 30th (the day that the Q1 result was released), way back when JPP's libtards were bashing President Trump for the negative GDP number, that Q1 was a "mirage" (that it was artificially low due to an atypical spike in imports). Apparently that's going to be their messaging after this "good" 3% Q2 number came out... "It's just a mirage", they're going to tell us. "Q3 will be back below zero again", they'll tell us.

JPP libtards... I TOLD you that Q2 was going to be much higher than Q1, and guess what, I WAS CORRECT!!!!!!!

I will later provide an analysis of the Q2 data when I have time to dive into it.

For now, I'll just enjoy any and all libtard COPE about Q2's "higher than expected" number... maybe via some continued referencing of Q1's number? maybe via a claim that Q2 is a "mirage"? Who knows... let's see what happens! :)
 
Q1's topline GDP number was falsely low (a "mirage", as libtards will now refer to the Q2 topline result) because of the atypical spike in imports due to companies taking immediate action before the additional tariffs came through (and, in the long-term, gearing up to shift their "USA market" production into the USA). That caused the topline GDP number to be a handful of points lower than it would have been without the sharp spike in imports. At this point, it was entirely predictable that Q2 would be an "inverse" of Q1 and that the Q2 GDP would be much higher than it was for Q1.

A deeper look into the Q2 data shows that imports (expectedly) were the inverse of Q1. Investments did a similar thing too. It turned out as expected for an economy that is growing and gearing up to produce much more "USA market" items within the USA itself.

Continuing onward, into Q3, what is to be expected now is for the import portion of the GDP to return to a more "even" level (instead of a huge upward spike or a huge downward crater) and for the investment portion (specifically the fixed asset category) to increase to the point that "investments" should become a bit positive again. Investments are also lower than they "could be" atm due to the FED refusing to lower interest rates due to their TDS. Consumer spending should either hold steady or slightly increase.

Walter's favorite "Atlanta Fed" (GDP Now) forecast is currently estimating a 2.3% GDP for Q3. I think that this is, once again, a bit low. I would expect the Q3 GDP to be roughly the same 3% that it was this quarter (+- 0.5%). I would lean towards it being a bit above 3% rather than it being a bit below 3%, but in any event, the GDP will remain a so-called "good" number (it will definitely not fall below 2%, let alone return to Q1's sub-0%)
 
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