Again... SEE post #102
This is your standard bullshit cypress... pretending that you cannot see the BBC link. Pretending that the head of the CRU doesn't disagree with your unimpeachable NAS.
This has been addressed ad naseum. This will be the last time, please don't beg me to keep responding to something that has been debunked before.
Obviously, you don't understand what Dr. Jones said. The scientifically informed reader does.
Dr. Jones was asked a very specific question: If global warming between 1995 and 2008 was statistically significant at the 95% confidence significance level. Which is just a random, confidence level that is mostly used by convention. There's nothing magical about it. First problem: cherry picking the year 1995 is rather dubious. If you cherry picked 1991 or 1992 you'd get a different answer.
Second, Dr. Jones did not say there was no warming from 1995 to 2009. There was. 0.12 degrees C per decade. Scientists indeed observed warming. But, he was asked a highly technical question, on a cherry picked year.
The savvy, and scientifically-informed reader could understand what Dr. Jones said. He said there WAS warming - 0.12 degree C per decade - and that there was about a 5% chance (a very low chance) that the upward trend was due to mere chance. Note that he said "The positive trend is quite close to the significance level.
Bottom line, there was warming, 0.12C, and there was about close to a 5% change this warming trend was due to mere chance.
If you understood what he said, and if you understood what statistical significance is at the 95% confidence level, this would have been clear to you.
Were done.
Get back to me when you have a link to a reputable scientific organization with expertise in climate science that supports your conjectures and cherry picks.
Dr. Phil Jones:
I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods.
I'm 100% confident that the climate has warmed. As to the second question, I would go along with IPCC Chapter 9 - there's evidence that most of the warming since the 1950s is due to human activity.
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-Superfreak's position: There has been no warming since the mid 1990s! Climate Gate! Scientists are lying!
The position of expert climate scientists:
-Dr. Jones (translated to normal english): There WAS a 0.12 degree C/decade rise in temperature between 1995-2009. The chance that this upward trend was due to mere chance is very low - only about 5%. Choosing the year 1995 is rather dubious, because statistical significance at the 95% confidence interval is typically only achievable with larger data sets, of longer temporal variation.
-NASA, 2010: "We conclude that global temperature continued to rise rapidly in the past decade" and "that there has been no reduction in the global warming trend of 0.15-0.20°C/decade that began in the late 1970s."
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