I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th

A 401k can't trade on margin. In 2008-09 workers lost 1/3 of their retirement.

Yes, then got another massive bailout. Now they snivel about people getting food stamps while they brag about how well their 401K's are allegedly doing. They and their Wall Street heroes suck up a lot more welfare than the working poor ever have.
 
unless it's china.
Even in the most extreme communism, market forces rear their ugly heads, and modern China is not the most extreme communism.

There is a misconception that China's government wants growth above anything. They have shown a huge willingness to give up growth to establish power. Having a few billions lose all their money seems minor compared to killing most of the wealthy people like China did before.
 
A 401k can't trade on margin.
You are mostly correct. There is no actual law against it, but you would need enough money in the 401k to handle any possible margin call. You cannot add money to satisfy a margin call.

It is less correct when you look at indirect investments. Many mutual funds and ETF's trade on margin. 401k's commonly invest in these funds, and so indirectly trade on margin.

Why do you bring this up? I did not say anything about people with 401k's trading on margins. I said that investors are selling low because they are forced to by margin calls. These would mostly not be directly 401k investors.

In 2008-09 workers lost 1/3 of their retirement.
Probably. Many were invested in supposedly safe investments that were anything but. Others lost money due to other investors being forced to sell due to margin calls.

2008 was brutal, but probably not as brutal as what we are about to see.
 
Walt doesn't actually bother with facts.
What surprises me is that after a week of heavy losses by me, none of you realize it.

I still believe in this investment, but have lost quite a bit of money on it so far. I am still up from the beginning of trump's disgrace, and still think this will be a great investment.
 
Even in the most extreme communism, market forces rear their ugly heads, and modern China is not the most extreme communism.

There is a misconception that China's government wants growth above anything. They have shown a huge willingness to give up growth to establish power. Having a few billions lose all their money seems minor compared to killing most of the wealthy people like China did before.
they enslave their people.

and they cheat,

and they have no accounting rules.

and they do state subsidy and dumping.

cheating all around, fuckface.
 
2008 was brutal, but probably not as brutal as what we are about to see.
You're finally catching on to the upcoming global collapse. The supply chain is once again slowing. We'll get to see if BRICS suffers more or less than the G7.
 
What surprises me is that after a week of heavy losses by me, none of you realize it.

I still believe in this investment, but have lost quite a bit of money on it so far. I am still up from the beginning of trump's disgrace, and still think this will be a great investment.

I'm averaging 4.6% a week on my left over change. I'll be pocketing some 3.8% in quarterly dividends by May 20 and early June, over 15% yearly. My real gain/loss ratio is 100%. People who gamble on borrowed money are stupid fools. It's pretty easy to beat the rates paid on CD's and bonds.
 
I'm averaging 4.6% a week on my left over change. I'll be pocketing some 3.8% in quarterly dividends by May 20 and early June, over 15% yearly. My real gain/loss ratio is 100%. People who gamble on borrowed money are stupid fools. It's pretty easy to beat the rates paid on CD's and bonds.
You wouldn't happen to be fibbing, now would you???
 
I'm averaging 4.6% a week on my left over change. I'll be pocketing some 3.8% in quarterly dividends by May 20 and early June, over 15% yearly. My real gain/loss ratio is 100%. People who gamble on borrowed money are stupid fools. It's pretty easy to beat the rates paid on CD's and bonds.
Lots of people have lots of ideas....this being a dark age most of those ideas are bad.

I will wait for the results.
 
Lots of people have lots of ideas....this being a dark age most of those ideas are bad.

I will wait for the results.

You're still waiting for that Big Giant Dollar Crash you conspiracy fans predicted right after Bretton Woods. lol

Some of the commies, homos, and other deviants are always demanding 'proof n stuff', so here is another link none of them will read on what Bretton Woods was, since I know none of them have ever read any history, much less had to take any in skool.

 
You're finally catching on to the upcoming global collapse. The supply chain is once again slowing. We'll get to see if BRICS suffers more or less than the G7.
You might be asking the wrong question. Leaders like Stalin and Mao created suffering to encourage social revolution. It was not something to be avoided, but something to be created. Putin and Xi are not Stalin and Mao, but they do respect Stalin and Mao. Economic crashes might be seen as a good thing to them.
 
I predict that the S&P 500 will be well under 5,000 by September 30th, and I put my money where my mouth is. I have bought a bunch of SPY puts centering around a strike price of $500, all expiring on September 30th. If the S&P goes down to around 4,000, I will make quite a bit of money.

If the S&P 500 stays above 5,000, then you can laugh at me 🙃

I'm curious -- what are you basing this on? The tariffs and current trajectory of the economy?
 
I'm curious -- what are you basing this on? The tariffs and current trajectory of the economy?
There are over 100% tariffs between the world's two largest trading partners, creating a near embargo. It will take a few months to carry through to main street, but this is huge. trump has postponed many other tariffs, but not cancelled them. Postponing in the past has meant trump is just trying to delay them so people get used to them. he might make a deal with China, but that looks extremely iffy, and the deal will be noticeable worse than what we had a few months ago.

Even if trump tries to reset everything to the way it was a few months ago, there will be the uncertainty. That alone will crash the stock market.

I could be wrong, but I believe that the stock market will crash by more than 40% from its high. The high for the S&P 500 is 6,147.43, so I think it will go down to 3688. DO NOT BET YOUR HOUSE ON THIS!!! I have been sure before, and been wrong. I am certainly willing to invest extra money I do not need to survive.

The real question is why isn't the stock market lower right now? That is the question The Economist was asking in their most recent issue. The answer they came by is that the only retail investors are supporting the market right now, and only some of the retail investors. They believe Republicans are letting their belief in trump cloud their investing judgement. I think that is right, but also there is a lot of wishful thinking that we are not destined for very bad things.

One more time, there is a near embargo between the world's two largest trading partners, that is a very bad thing.
 
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