UK election is tonight; results are just streaming in

I've had no sleep yet.

And we still haven't got a winner. We're officially well hung.

I'd like to tell you i knew what was going to happen next, but i genuinely don't know. I was expecting this hung parliament scenario but with a much larger Lib Dem presence. There's still 34 seats left to declare so we'll see how that leaves things i suppose.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was no outcome until tomorrow (Saturday) at the earliest.

Overall...slightly underwhelming.
 
Weighted Companion Cube said:
I try not to involve myself with British politics, so I'm unaware of their party platforms. Can you explain the difference between the three Tom? Or Charver, if you decide to weight in here.
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I found this by an American which is quite good albeit with some inaccuracies. A government's mandate is for five years but they can call an election anytime within that time frame. Hung parliaments, that is without an overall majority, are not that common and you have to go back to 1977 for the last coalition between parties. Oh, and the Social Democrats are called Liberal Democrats, not bad otherwise.

At first glance, the Labour are the liberals and the Tories are the conservatives, roughly corresponding to American Democratic and Republican parties. (Actually, the Tories are technically called Conservatives; "Tory" is a holdover that's still used a lot.)

And the system is roughly similar: the House of Commons is made up of representatives from districts, just like our House of Representatives. Their elections are scheduled whenever they feel like it, more or less, unlike ours, which are set in stone. And they strictly limit campaigning; they're horrified at how long we've already been into our primaries.

But there are a lot of differences making it more complicated. Most important is that the British system hasn't settled into the two-party system the way the US has. It's dominated by the two main parties, but there are a lot more local parties (like Sinn Fein, from Northern Ireland) and special-interest parties (like the Social Democrats, more liberal than Labour).

That means that parties often have to form coalitions to get anything done. Brits don't elect the Prime Minister directly, the way we do without President (Electoral College notwithstanding). The PM is selected by Parliament, and so if Labour or Conservatives don't have a majority they have to team up with the smaller parties to make a majority. The Social Democrats will always side with Labour, and since the SocialDems are the third largest force that has made them kingmakers for a number of years.

The issues that define Labour and Conservative parties are not the same ones as in America. A lot of issues that dominate party choice in America simply aren't applicable: abortion is not nearly as contested there, and the gun control issue is considered settled. The health care is already nationalized, and the debate is over who would run it better, not whether it's a good idea.

The crucial issues dividing the parties there are joining Europe (Labour generally for; Conservatives generally against); taxation (Conservatives are opposed); crime (varying ways of preventing it); immigration and dealing with assimilation.

Another big difference is that Labour has been successful for years, and the Conservatives down for so long they've forgotten what "up" looks like. That's very different from the situation in the US, where the parties trade power back and forth fairly often. Especially since the chief executive is ALWAYS of the same party as the majority in Parliament; they don't get the same sort of checks-and-balances (and corresponding arguments) that we do.

The philosophies of Labour are roughly similar to American liberals and Conservative roughly similar to American conservatives, but the circumstances are so different that it's really hard to compare them.

All of this is the House of Commons. There's also a House of Lords, roughly similar to our Senate (and Supreme Court, actually) but which deliberately makes itself less important. They theoretically can veto legislation from the Commons, but they rarely do. They like to think of themselves as a thinking body and an occasional brake on the excesses of Parliament, but not a legislative body in and of themselves.

Overall, it ends up being a much more civilized system than we have. They fight a good deal, but it seems less bitter than in the US. Still, I'm told that US-style smear tactics are becoming more common, and it wouldn't surprise me if they end up with a system more like ours as time goes on.

http://askville.amazon.com/explain-...ies-England/AnswerViewer.do?requestId=5208628
 
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The LibDems have been suffering from massive swings to conservative in seats that were formerly safe for apparently no reason. They did have a few gains, but pretty much all of them were against either expense damaged MP's or the result of Labour voters tactically switching to them, but it wasn't nearly enough to balance out the random massive swing to Conservative in a few seats. The Libdems even lost a seat to Labour. Although they picked up votes, they only picked up 1%, not the 5% that was consistently predicted in every poll since the debate. I'm literally unsure if there's ever been a poll failure bigger than this in my life.

As it is, it looks like parliament is going to be hung on the necks of the nationalis. If you're Scottish, expect a big check until the next election.
 
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This is really Machiavellian now.

Brown offering the Lib Dems PR and virtually anything else they want, maybe even his head.

Cameron to speak in 20 minutes about what his plans are.
 
The Conservatives don't look like their going to get enough seats to be able to form government with just them + DUP + the nationals.

That makes some kind of Conservative minority government supported by the LibDems the most likely option.

Alternatively, you could see some sort of Labour + LibDem + Green + Alliance + SNP + Plaid Cymru + SNLP monstrosity. Expect to see it fall within a couple of months.
 
"and the gun control issue is considered settled"

they may not spend a lot on dentist but they are civilized.
 
charver said:
This is really Machiavellian now.

Brown offering the Lib Dems PR and virtually anything else they want, maybe even his head.

Cameron to speak in 20 minutes about what his plans are.
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The LibDems and the SNP, Greens, PC, SNLP, and Alliance? The Libdems and Labour didn't get enough seats to form a majority on their own.
 
Mr. Spite said:
The LibDems and the SNP, Greens, PC, SNLP, and Alliance? The Libdems and Labour didn't get enough seats to form a majority on their own.
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The SDLP already take the Labour whip.

The nationalists are already in alliance with each other and would come as a package.

The alliance are already allied to the Lib Dems (i think)

Sinn Fein don't take up their seats so the target can be reduced by 4.

It all depends if the Lib Dem party would support propping up the Tories. Cameron's just offered a "committee of enquiry" to look at reform of the voting system. They'd be daft to fall for that one after Labour did the same thing in 1997. Clegg's supposed to be "responding" to Cameron's statement shortly. It looks rather choreographed - maybe they've done the deal already?
 
charver said:
The SDLP already take the Labour whip.

The nationalists are already in alliance with each other and would come as a package.

The alliance are already allied to the Lib Dems (i think)

Sinn Fein don't take up their seats so the target can be reduced by 4.

It all depends if the Lib Dem party would support propping up the Tories. Cameron's just offered a "committee of enquiry" to look at reform of the voting system. They'd be daft to fall for that one after Labour did the same thing in 1997. Clegg's supposed to be "responding" to Cameron's statement shortly. It looks rather choreographed - maybe they've done the deal already?
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Alliance, Greens, and the SDLP would be pretty easy to bargain with. The nationalists would ask for pork, which makes the coalition more difficult. The main problem here would simply be the fact that they'd have to support Labour, the party that clearly lost, and that would look bad.

If Clegg seriously offers LibDem support in return for a committee hearing on electoral reform he's lost his marbles. He should just strike an ad hoc deal with the other parties to pass electoral reform, and support a minority Conservative government until they become unpopular.
 
Mr. Spite said:
Alliance, Greens, and the SDLP would be pretty easy to bargain with. The nationalists would ask for pork, which makes the coalition more difficult. The main problem here would simply be the fact that they'd have to support Labour, the party that clearly lost, and that would look bad.

If Clegg seriously offers LibDem support in return for a committee hearing on electoral reform he's lost his marbles. He should just strike an ad hoc deal with the other parties to pass electoral reform, and support a minority Conservative government until they become unpopular.
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The offer seems to be open to Lib Dems joining a Conservative cabinet. They'd be bloody mad to do it. Once the cuts start they'd be in the gutter with the Tories.

You're right. An "agreement" with the Tories would be a better prospect. By the time another election comes round in 6-18 months they'd probably be the only party left looking vaguely likeable.

I never thought i'd see the Lib Dems turn down the chance of PR though.
 
At least things look shitty for the Conservatives. They are left with a choice between not getting government or pretty much having a guarantee of their government falling as soon as things become unpopular.

The only hope they have is that the LibDems go into coalition and lose so much support because of it that they become afraid to call another election.
 
Well, the Conservatives are only offering a committees of inquiry, but the difference is this time a majority of parties will probably support the result (the Conservatives will not). Does the party that forms government have the power to suppress legislation that the majority of parliament supports?

This might be a good idea. In exchange for supply, not in exchange for coalition.
 
Mr. Spite said:
Well, the Conservatives are only offering a committees of inquiry, but the difference is this time a majority of parties will probably support the result (the Conservatives will not). Does the party that forms government have the power to suppress legislation that the majority of parliament supports?

This might be a good idea. In exchange for supply, not in exchange for coalition.
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Any enquiry would likely last longer than the parliament itself. Everything would depend if the Labour party could reinvent itself with a new leader (bearing in mind they'd likely done a lot better in this election under, say, Alan Johnson). A resurgent Labour Party may be just as reticent in government as the Tories are now.

At least this uncertainty adds a bit of excitement to our terminally dull politics. :D
 
Maybe the LibDems should just go for a Labour coalition and PR. You'd never have to see another goddamn Tory government and if the coalition is stable, five years is an electoral eternity and Labour can redeem themselves.
 
Mr. Spite said:
Maybe the LibDems should just go for a Labour coalition and PR. You'd never have to see another goddamn Tory government and if the coalition is stable, five years is an electoral eternity and Labour can redeem themselves.
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It would still have to be put to referendum. I'm not quite sure how that would turn out. Although i'd be hopeful of a positive result you never can tell.

Oddly enough there is a section of the Tory party which would welcome PR but a whole swathe of Tory dinosaurs who are already blaming Cameron for not running the type of "traditional" campaign that saw them fumbling around in the electoral wilderness for the last 13 years. This is just mental.
 
tom prendergast said:
There were over a hundred people outside when they closed the doors at 10:00pm. Another polling station in Birmingham allowed everybody in and then closed the doors, there is going to be some major shit over this. The lawyers must be rubbing their hands with glee.
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Jeesh! You guys need to get your act together! Sounds like a lot of hysterics and overblown emotion going on over there!


"obvious sarcastic laugh"

 
Mr. Spite said:
It looks like the Conservatives gained enough seats to be able to form a Conservative minority government with nationalist support.
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We're now into Saturday and still uncertain.

Conservative/Lib Dem talks continue. A formal or informal alliance is still on the cards.

Gordon Brown continues to plot in Downing Street. He's been chatting with the Scottish Nationalist leader, Alex Salmond, who, after saying they wouldn't be doing any deals on Friday, has now said -
"The assumption of a Tory/Liberal Democrat pact is not correct. There are alternative and more progressive options available if politicians have the will to seize the moment. The SNP and Plaid are indicating that we do."
(Lab + Lib Dem + SDLP + SNP/Plaid = 327 and a majority.

If Clegg wants to find an excuse not to work with the Tories anymore he's now got a realistic option which would be more popular with his party. Giving the Tories enough rope to hang themselves with is still looking favourite though.
 
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