16 million jobs added, and we had a bull market that broke records. The market is down over 1,000 over the past week+, inflation is up, and consumer confidence is down. Democrats are always better for the economy. Consistently.
No, Democrats aren’t always better for the economy, it’s not a universal rule.
Economic performance under any party depends on a messy mix of policy choices, global conditions, and timing, not just ideology.
Data and history show both parties have had hits and misses, and the "better" label shifts depending on what metric you prioritize: GDP growth, stock markets, unemployment, or inequality.
Look at GDP growth. From 1961 to 2023, Democratic presidents averaged 3.88% annual real GDP growth, while Republicans averaged 2.49%, per Bureau of Economic Analysis data. Under Democrats like Clinton (3.9% average) and Obama (1.6% post-recession), growth often outpaced Republican terms like Bush Jr. (1.7%) or Trump’s first term (1.2% pre-COVID). But context matters: Clinton inherited a recovery, Obama dug out of the 2008 crash, and Trump faced a pandemic. Republicans argue their policies—like tax cuts—set long-term foundations, even if growth lags in their term. Kennedy-Johnson (5.2%) and Reagan (3.5%) both juiced growth with stimulus and deregulation, showing party lines blur when pragmatism kicks in.
Stock markets? S&P 500 returns since 1928 favor Democrats (11.3% annualized vs. 6.8% for Republicans), per Goldman Sachs data through 2022.
Clinton’s tech boom and Obama’s recovery saw big gains; Trump’s pre-COVID market soared too (15% annualized), but Biden’s term through 2023 beat it slightly (16%).
Yet markets often ride waves started before a president sits—Reagan’s bull run began under Carter’s pain. Causation’s tricky.
Unemployment? Democrats often inherit messes and improve them—Clinton dropped it from 7.3% to 4%, Obama from 9.9% to 4.7%. Republicans like Reagan (10.8% to 5.4%) and Trump (4.7% to 3.5% pre-COVID) have their wins too.
But recessions don’t care about party—Nixon, Carter, and Bush Sr. all got burned by oil shocks or bubbles.
Inequality’s a Democratic talking point, yet it grew under Clinton (NAFTA, deregulation) and Obama (post-2008 recovery favored the rich). Republican tax cuts—Reagan, Bush Jr., Trump—also widened gaps. Neither side’s cracked that nut consistently.
Policy specifics beat party dogma.
Democrats lean toward spending (infrastructure, social programs), which can boost demand short-term but risks inflation; see Biden’s $1.9T stimulus in 2021 spiking prices.
Republicans push tax cuts and deregulation, aiming for business-led growth, but benefits often skew upward; Trump’s 2017 tax law added $1.5T to deficits without the promised wage boom.
Global shocks (wars, pandemics) and Fed moves often dwarf either’s plans.
Partisan posts scream bias: “Dems save jobs!” or “GOP builds wealth!” Truth is, no party owns prosperity. Since 2000, we’ve had three recessions, two under Republicans (2008, 2020), one straddling Biden (inflation slowdown).
As of February 22, 2025, Trump’s back, tariffs are rattling markets, and Democrats claim he’s tanking things.
Too early to call. History says it’s a coin toss. Check the data in six months.
@Grok
www.reuters.com
