My election prediction

gfm7175 said:
Most "polling" is state-controlled press releases. Nothing more. You will note that such "polling" ALWAYS "overstates" the Democrat candidate and ALWAYS "understates" the Republican candidate. If such "polling" were legitimate polling, then it would naturally "overstate" the Republican candidate as often as it would "overstate" the Democrat candidate, but the "misses" are ALWAYS one way. Why is that?? Because it is NOT polling... it is a state-controlled press release.
Click to expand...
Idiot.

So you just said literally one post ago that the polling is accurate. NOW you're here saying it's rigged.

So make up your fucking mind, asshole...is the polling accurate or is it rigged by the state?
 
gfm7175 said:
I already told you. I'll even add another one right here.

Early voting ballot returns. For example, Democrats usually have an advantage in early voting returns (and Republicans play "catch up" on election day). This cycle, however, REPUBLICANS actually have the advantage in early voting returns (and will likely STILL win the election day vote as well). That's very bad news for Harris and very good news for Trump.

Are you now going to ban reference to THAT indicator TOO? :rofl2:
Click to expand...

What makes you think that 100% of those Republican early voters are voting for Trump?

Conservatives haven't voted early in elections since 2018, why would they suddenly start doing so now for candidates who have spent the last 4 years trashing early voting?
 
An Orange Cat said:
You JUST SAID they were skewed by 5%. So that means they're not accurate or reliable.
Click to expand...
I said that they are currently averaging 5 points to the RIGHT of where they averaged last time around.

I never said that they were accurate or reliable. Just comparing apples to apples, and that has shown a "rightward shift" of roughly 5 points, FWIW.
An Orange Cat said:
Public polls don't vote, people do. So apart from public polling what other indicators are there that Trump will win?
Click to expand...
Never said they did. I already told you.
 
An Orange Cat said:
Who pays for them, of course.

These polls are all commissioned, so who is commissioning them and who do those people work for? Very simple questions.

Conservatives have always flooded the polling with garbage, which is why the polling never ends up accurately predicting the final result.

If you're going to look at any kind of polling to form conclusions, you'd want to look at exit polls. THOSE POLLS aren't in Trump's favor, particularly in FL where you have NPA's breaking for Harris by 18%.
Click to expand...
"exit polls" are even worse than "polling", let alone polling, and polling has it's fair share of issues.
 
An Orange Cat said:
Idiot.

So you just said literally one post ago that the polling is accurate. NOW you're here saying it's rigged.

So make up your fucking mind, asshole...is the polling accurate or is it rigged by the state?
Click to expand...
I've never once said polling was accurate. You need to stop making up bogus position assignments.
 
gfm7175 said:
Never said they did. I already told you.
Click to expand...
No you didn't "tell me".

You started to say something about early vote but you didn't want to credit a chunk of that to GOP crossover voters.

Why would Trump voters suddenly start voting early after not doing so for the last 4-6 years?
 
An Orange Cat said:
What makes you think that 100% of those Republican early voters are voting for Trump?
Click to expand...
What makes you think that 100% of those Democrat early voters are voting for Harris?
An Orange Cat said:
Conservatives haven't voted early in elections since 2018, why would they suddenly start doing so now for candidates who have spent the last 4 years trashing early voting?
Click to expand...
Conservatives have always voted early in elections (just not as many of them do so as compared against Democrats). However, this time around, it's different.
 
gfm7175 said:
What makes you think that 100% of those Democrat early voters are voting for Harris?
Click to expand...
Because why would any Democrat vote early for Trump, particularly if they're also voting for the D Senate candidate?

Public polling in AZ has Gallego up by a larger margin than Trump's over Harris. How does that make any sense?

Describe a Trump-Gallego voter.
 
tigerred59 said:
What the fuck has Harris done that's pissin ppl like you off, the bitch ain't the fuckin president, she ain't in office yet and her prior political record is stellar....so why you buggin against her and not that dry rot called MAGA and Trump?
Click to expand...
I'm not "pissed off" about Harris. I KNOW, for certain, she will act and rule in office as a Leftist. That will be very bad for the US. It will make people poorer--except for the very rich and powerful. The very rich and powerful in a Harris administration will do quite well, or if she decides to try and confiscate their wealth, they'll leave.

The economy will do poorly under Harris. The open border disaster will continue. Foreign policy will go straight into the toilet. I could see us ending up in a war with China because they invade Taiwan knowing Harris will respond completely ineffectively to it.

There is not one thing to recommend a Harris presidency. She is a mediocre intellect promoted far above her level of competence. She has no values or moral compass. She is in a word, useless.

Trump has plenty of flaws but he's not going to do everything wrong in office, Harris will. She'll make the disaster that was the Biden presidency look good, and Biden was so disastrous that he made the previous gold standard for presidential fuck ups, Carter, look good. I can tolerate four more years of Trump. I doubt most Americans can survive four years of Harris.
 
gfm7175 said:
Conservatives have always voted early in elections (just not as many of them do so as compared against Democrats). However, this time around, it's different.
Click to expand...
Not since 2018, dude.

Conservatives did not vote early in 2020, they did not vote early in the GA Senate runoffs in 2021, they did not vote early in the 2022 general election cycle where the "red wave" resulted in what is now a 1-seat majority in the House.

Why is it different this time? Why should we believe this time is different? What has changed for Conservatives that they now are voting early after basically calling early voting election fraud for the last 4 years?
 
gfm7175 said:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Press "Ctrl+F" and then search "this day in history". It's on the front page.
Click to expand...
But you said the 2020 election was stolen, so how can your assertion be accurate????

If you say the 2020 election was stolen, then you have to also say that the polling was also rigged somehow, but now you're saying that this year's polling is 5% or whatever to the right of 2020's polling that you say is rigged by the state.

So....
 
An Orange Cat said:
Yes you did, you literally said polling after I said that you can't use the public polling.
Click to expand...
I said polling is an indicator. I didn't say that polling was accurate. I'm specifically talking about 2020 polling vs 2024 polling. An aggregate shift towards R's matters because polling always purposely misses in favor of Democrats. That's why it's inaccurate and why it is state-controlled propaganda.
 
An Orange Cat said:
No you didn't "tell me".

You started to say something about early vote but you didn't want to credit a chunk of that to GOP crossover voters.

Why would Trump voters suddenly start voting early after not doing so for the last 4-6 years?
Click to expand...
Because Trump told them to do so this time around?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top