Not to mention moderate swing voters and moderate Republicans who were so sick of the Trump drama in 2020 they didn't even cast a vote for President.
That'll happen again. Like most elections, it's about voter turnout. When only 2/3s of American voters turnout to vote, that leaves millions of votes at home.
https://fairvote.org/resources/voter-turnout/
Demographics
Overall, U.S. voters tend to be older, wealthier, more educated, and identify as White than nonvoters. Other demographic differences relate to:
- Age: Young people are much less likely to vote than older ones. Citizens between the ages of 18 and 29 typically turn out at a rate more than 10 points lower than those who are 30 and older.
- Race/ethnicity:White people are more likely to vote than people of color. In 2020, turnout among eligible White voters was estimated at 71%; On the other hand, turnout among Black voters and Latino voters was estimated at 63% and 54% respectively.
- Gender: Women are more reliable voters than men. Women’s turnout has surpassed men’s in every presidential election since 1980. In the 2020 election, 68% of eligible women voters cast a ballot, compared to 65% of eligible male voters.
- Socioeconomic status: Wealthy Americans vote at much higher rates than those who earn lower incomes. In the 2020 presidential election, turnout was 81% among people whose income was $100,000 – $149,999, compared to 63.6% for those whose income was $30,000 – $39,999. This difference affects public policy: Studies show that Politicians are more likely to respond to the desires of their wealthy constituents than of their lower-income constituents, in part because their wealthy constituents are more likely to vote.