This Recession Indicator Has Been Foolproof for 70 Years: Here's What It Says Happens

[Concart]

How about you address post number 2, any danger of that? So what great enlightenment have you revealed so far? The economic cycle for one, do you have a masters to learn about that? I seem to recall that Keynes was a great believer in deficit spending but also paying back in the upswing part of the economic cycle. Gordon Brown liked to talk about the Golden Rule which states that over the economic cycle, the Government will borrow only to invest and not to fund current spending. I can see that means little to you.

LOL, you just don't look at anything you post, do you? That article is from an opinion writer at the Motley Fool. Yes, there are indications of a recession. No one is denying that. But you and others here have been screaming at the sky. Recessions come and go. It's called the economic cycle, which is why I said in my post that a recession is inevitable. DUH. When, how severe, and how long are open questions. There are strong indications that the economy is very healthy. Meaning a recession, if it does occur this year, is likely to be mild. The set of economic indicators we are currently experiencing is unique, and driven largely by Covid, so predicting what will happen is a fools errand.

The rest of your post is just babble. I have no idea what point you're trying to make. Maybe state it so we can all gain knowledge from your experience, wisdom, and economic background.

 

[Stone]

. The economy doesn't care about politics.

100% true. But politics damn sure cares about the economy and effects it immensely.

 

[Concart]

100% true. But politics damn sure cares about the economy and effects it immensely.

Not really. They can impact a few things on the fringes, but by and large, short of a catastrophic decision to not raise the debt ceiling, Congress and the President only impact the margins. Over time, however, economic policies can have a huge effect. See: supply side economics.

 

[Stone]

Over time, however, economic policies can have a huge effect. See: supply side economics.

So then YES , politics can effect the economy greatly as Ive said. If it doesnt then Bidens speech should only last a minute or so tonight.....

 

[Concart]

So then YES , politics can effect the economy greatly as Ive said. If it doesnt then Bidens speech should only last a minute or so tonight.....

Here's what I'd say. PERCEPTION has far more impact than the actions of a President. But your point is taken.

 

[Joe Capitalist]

If people had bothered to get themselves educated we would not be where we are, this catastrophe is born from ignorance and hubris....how civilizations generally die.

You can always move to Canada, Fawkewe10.

 

[Joe Capitalist]

My opinion, unlike yours, is informed. It is what it is. I've been managing my own money for 44 years. I have a masters degree in economics. Could I be wrong? Sure. Things change. But you chicken littles that have been screaming that the sky is falling are doing so strictly for partisan reasons. The economy doesn't care about politics.

Truer words were never spoken, Concart. I've found that when one party spends 99% of their time lambasting the other party while parroting false narratives and fomenting bullshit conspiracy theories rather than extolling the virus of their own party, there's got to be something off about them.
GOP is no longer the party of Reagan. They're the party of FoxNews. They are a Clown Show.

 

[serendipity]

LOL, you just don't look at anything you post, do you? That article is from an opinion writer at the Motley Fool. Yes, there are indications of a recession. No one is denying that. But you and others here have been screaming at the sky. Recessions come and go. It's called the economic cycle, which is why I said in my post that a recession is inevitable. DUH. When, how severe, and how long are open questions. There are strong indications that the economy is very healthy. Meaning a recession, if it does occur this year, is likely to be mild. The set of economic indicators we are currently experiencing is unique, and driven largely by Covid, so predicting what will happen is a fools errand.

The rest of your post is just babble. I have no idea what point you're trying to make. Maybe state it so we can all gain knowledge from your experience, wisdom, and economic background.

I'm talking about classic Keynesian economics, obviously something you never studied for your MA. No doubt you consider that the national debt and deficits no longer matter, are you an advocate of modern monetary theory?

 

[Concart]

I'm talking about classic Keynesian economics, obviously something you never studied for your MA. No doubt you consider that the national debt and deficits no longer matter, are you an advocate of modern monetary theory?

Keynesian economics has zero to do with this thread. Focus, son.

 

[serendipity]

Keynesian economics has zero to do with this thread. Focus, son.

Are you sure that you haven't a masters in home economics? I'm convinced that you know a lot about cooking books. So according to you Keynes has nothing to say about paying down debt, is that correct?

https://www.pgpf.org/national-debt-...gZRcVql9m3r-qpabGLbmPBSWaSeu__SRoCv20QAvD_BwE

 

[Concart]

Are you sure that you haven't a masters in home economics? I'm convinced that you know a lot about cooking books. So according to you Keynes has nothing to say about paying down debt, is that correct?

https://www.pgpf.org/national-debt-...gZRcVql9m3r-qpabGLbmPBSWaSeu__SRoCv20QAvD_BwE

No, Keynes has nothing to say about recession indicators which is the topic of this thread. I asked if you had a point. It appears the answer is no.

 

[Concart]

I'm talking about classic Keynesian economics, obviously something you never studied for your MA. No doubt you consider that the national debt and deficits no longer matter, are you an advocate of modern monetary theory?

Since apparently you are unable to articulate a point, I'll try to make a guess at what you're driving at. Since you aren't capable.

First, let's start with this; studying various economic philosophies and systems is a high school course. You can learn it in a day. Well, some people can, but apparently not you. Advanced economics is math. You would have no shot. You've mentioned two theories, Modern monetary theory and Keynesian theory.

Brown's golden rule? That horse left the barn decades ago dude. Get a clue.

Keynes believed in government spending during recessions (as do I). And yes, he believed that once growth resumed, borrowing should be paid back. What you definitely don't want to talk about is HOW Keynes believed the debt should be reduced. He believed 100% in TAX INCREASES, not spending cuts. Ooops. I suspect in your ignorant and imprecise way, you are going to suggest that Keynesian theory is at odds with modern monetary theory. That's true, but not at all to the extent you are most likely trying to suggest (I'm guessing at your position, because you are an inarticulate boob). Some government debt is perfectly acceptable. However, that debt can eventually lead to recession and inflation. There are two ways to reduce any debt. Spending cuts and revenue increases. You are uninterested in the latter. The fact is that tax increases on the wealthy are absolutely necessary, and Keynes would agree. Supply side economics is a proven failure. The proof is in the wage/wealth gap that has widened to the point it now threatens the entire economy. It is unsustainable. The answer is not to cut benefits, it is to raise taxes, and in fact, it will probably be necessary to levy a wealth tax on the top 1% in order to prime the pump again.

Now, if you actually have an interest in discussing this, rather than trying to play professor and administer me a test that you would fail miserably, state a position, and defend it with facts. I'll wait. I'm guessing I'd better pack some bags, it's going to be a long time before you engage.