‘Who will blink first?’ Is nuclear war between Russia and the US possible? | RT

Scott

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I thought the article with the same name as this thread on RT was interesting. I didn't read the whole thing, but the author cites sources on both sides of the fence- that the possibility is next to impossible on the one side, to that it's a definite possibility on the other. I'll quote the introduction and see if anyone is interested in discussing the subject of this thread...

**
December 16, 2022

Discussions about strengthening nuclear arms control have been ongoing for decades, but have recently receded into the background, with leading powers now hurling direct threats at each other.

Despite the obvious catastrophic consequences of a nuclear war, in which world leaders have repeatedly noted there would be no winners, Moscow and Washington continue to warn that they are ready to use their arsenals in extreme circumstances.

Experts have expressed hope that these statements are nothing more than attempts at blackmail. However, sooner or later, this kind of talk could lead to a critical situation similar to the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, when the Soviet Union and United States held atomic pistols to each other’s heads.

To make matters worse, the entire system of international agreements on disarmament has practically collapsed, leaving little hope for improvement in the near future.

**

Full article:
‘Who will blink first?’ Is nuclear war between Russia and the US possible? | RT
 
Nuclear war between the great powers IS, of course, POSSIBLE.

I doubt the leaders of any superpower will start such a war...or make moves that will make such a war inevitable.

But it IS POSSIBLE.
 
Nuclear war between the great powers IS, of course, POSSIBLE.

I doubt the leaders of any superpower will start such a war...or make moves that will make such a war inevitable.

But it IS POSSIBLE.

Western leaders are stunningly incompetent and reckless.
 
Everyone just assumes that the moment one power hits the button the other poer will respond with all nukes and the world ends up dying. Frankly I doubt that if Putin were to nuke New York tomorrow Biden will launch an all out nuclear strike against Russia. This is my favorite clip from Yes Minister which I think perfectly explains why you wont see an all out nuclear strike.

 
I mean that education is the learning to see reality correctly, and I got myself educated.

I am not a God so I am sometimes wrong, but the chances that I am wrong here approach zero.

So you didn't mean it was obvious it was just your opinion.

You meant it to say that it is obvious that "western leaders are stunningly incompetent and reckless."

It is NOT obvious to me, Hawk...and I am educated and able to see reality correctly. At least, it is not obvious to me that western leaders are stunningly incompetent and reckless...more so than eastern leaders, southern leaders, or northern leaders.

ALL leaders show competence at times (even Trump)...and ALL show varying degrees of incompetence at other times. Some are more "reckless", but that seems to bne a trait less prevalent (in my opinion) among "western leaders."
 
putin_riding_missile.jpg
 
Everyone just assumes that the moment one power hits the button the other poer will respond with all nukes and the world ends up dying. Frankly I doubt that if Putin were to nuke New York tomorrow Biden will launch an all out nuclear strike against Russia. This is my favorite clip from Yes Minister which I think perfectly explains why you wont see an all out nuclear strike.


A very good video, it made me laugh :-). I agree that Salami tactics are the way things have gone for most of history. However, there have been moments that were frankly terrifying. Perhaps the most well known was the Cuban Missile Crisis.
 
So you didn't mean it was obvious it was just your opinion.

You meant it to say that it is obvious that "western leaders are stunningly incompetent and reckless."

It is NOT obvious to me, Hawk...and I am educated and able to see reality correctly. At least, it is not obvious to me that western leaders are stunningly incompetent and reckless...more so than eastern leaders, southern leaders, or northern leaders.

ALL leaders show competence at times (even Trump)...and ALL show varying degrees of incompetence at other times. Some are more "reckless", but that seems to bne a trait less prevalent (in my opinion) among "western leaders."

I agree for the most part, up until the last point, in particular the U.S. From where I stand, the U.S. has been incredibly reckless since Vietnam and onwards at least. Their actions in Ukraine are perhaps the most reckless yet.
 
Everyone just assumes that the moment one power hits the button the other poer will respond with all nukes and the world ends up dying. Frankly I doubt that if Putin were to nuke New York tomorrow Biden will launch an all out nuclear strike against Russia. This is my favorite clip from Yes Minister which I think perfectly explains why you wont see an all out nuclear strike.


It was fucking Putin who attacked Ukraine. It was Putin who kept escalating. It was Putin who opened the talk about nukes. America has not discussed it.
 
Everyone just assumes that the moment one power hits the button the other poer will respond with all nukes and the world ends up dying. Frankly I doubt that if Putin were to nuke New York tomorrow Biden will launch an all out nuclear strike against Russia. This is my favorite clip from Yes Minister which I think perfectly explains why you wont see an all out nuclear strike.


It was fucking Putin who attacked Ukraine.

It's true that Putin sent his army into Ukraine, but let's not forget that Ukraine was killing eastern Ukrainians for 8 years prior to that, primarily in the Donbass region, many if not most of whom were ethnic Russians or at the very least Russian speaking. There is plenty of evidence that Putin started his military operation precisely when he did because Ukraine had started a renewed assault on said Donbass region, putting Putin in a very difficult situation. Former Swiss Intelligence Officer Jacques Baud put it quite well in an article he wrote. I think his article is so important that I made a thread of it back in November. It's here if you're interested in taking a look:
Former Swiss Intelligence Officer blows the whistle on West's Ukraine War Narrative | justplainpolitics.com


Quoting from the article:

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In fact, as early as February 16, Joe Biden knows that the Ukrainians began to shell the civilian populations of Donbass, putting Vladimir Putin in front of a difficult choice: to help Donbass militarily and create an international problem or to sit idle and watch Russian speakers. from the Donbass being run over.

If he decides to intervene, Vladimir Putin can invoke the international obligation of “ Responsibility To Protect ” (R2P). But he knows that whatever its nature or scale, the intervention will trigger a shower of sanctions. Therefore, whether its intervention is limited to the Donbass or whether it goes further to put pressure on the West for the status of Ukraine, the price to be paid will be the same. This is what he explains in his speech on February 21.

That day, he acceded to the request of the Duma and recognized the independence of the two Republics of Donbass and, in the process, he signed treaties of friendship and assistance with them.

**

Source:
Former NATO Military Analyst Blows the Whistle on West’s Ukraine Invasion Narrative | Scheerpost


Even on the 21st, I suspect that Putin was still hoping that Ukraine would stop attacking the Donbass republics, but if so, his hopes were in vain. Continuing from Mr. Baud's article:

**
The Ukrainian artillery bombardments on the populations of Donbass continued and, on February 23, the two Republics requested military aid from Russia. On the 24th, Vladimir Putin invokes Article 51 of the United Nations Charter which provides for mutual military assistance within the framework of a defensive alliance.

In order to make the Russian intervention totally illegal in the eyes of the public we deliberately obscure the fact that the war actually started on February 16th. The Ukrainian army was preparing to attack the Donbass as early as 2021, as certain Russian and European intelligence services were well aware… The lawyers will judge.

**

It was Putin who opened the talk about nukes.

No, it was Zelensky who actually brought up nukes just a little before Putin decided to begin his military operation. Putin even responded to Zelensky's comments on the matter in the speech that he gave when he declared Russia's recognition of the Donbass Republics, on February 21st. It's all documented in the following article from the Daily Wire published on February 23rd:

President Zelensky Suggests Ukraine May Pursue Nuclear Weapons To Counter Russia, Putin Responds | dailywire.com
 
Nuclear war between the great powers IS, of course, POSSIBLE.

I doubt the leaders of any superpower will start such a war...or make moves that will make such a war inevitable.

But it IS POSSIBLE.
The US couldn't wait to nuke Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The US has an entire institution that comes up with better ways to kill people. The US is pushing for WW3 as we type. The obvious question is why?
 
The US couldn't wait to nuke Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The US has an entire institution that comes up with better ways to kill people. The US is pushing for WW3 as we type. The obvious question is why?

I don't know about the U.S. pushing for WW3 per se. I suspect it's more that they think that Russia will blink first. It's akin to thinking that the U.S. would blink first during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Just as Cuba was in the U.S.'s backyard, Ukraine is right next to Russia- Russia's not blinking. The sooner the U.S. gets that, the better off everyone will be.
 
I don't know about the U.S. pushing for WW3 per se. I suspect it's more that they think that Russia will blink first. It's akin to thinking that the U.S. would blink first during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Just as Cuba was in the U.S.'s backyard, Ukraine is right next to Russia- Russia's not blinking. The sooner the U.S. gets that, the better off everyone will be.

Its more that they are arrogant and ignorant and have little ability to think things through.

And remember that civilizations tend to die via hubris.
 
A very good video, it made me laugh :-). I agree that Salami tactics are the way things have gone for most of history. However, there have been moments that were frankly terrifying. Perhaps the most well known was the Cuban Missile Crisis.

IMO what it really illustrates is that it takes a lot for the current leader in power to actually push that button. So much so that Jim was already presented with a scenario where Russia took the entirety of western europe and he still wouldnt push the button.

Thats why I think that not even a nuclear first strike will trigger a nuclear armaggeddon. Lets be clear though I only think that if Russia sends one nuke. If russia sends like 1000 the US will respond with 1000 and we will go into Fallout 2 world.
 
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