Hedge fund giant Elliott warns looming hyperinflation could lead to ‘global societal

[cancel2 2022]

Hedge fund Elliott warns hyperinflation could lead to ‘global societal collapse'

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They could be right but we need to hear from the real 'experts' Salty, Arsecheese and Con Artist first.

In a letter sent to investors, and seen by the Financial Times, the Florida-headquartered firm told clients that they believe the global economy is in an “extremely challenging” situation which could lead to hyperinflation. Elliott did not respond to MarketWatch’s request for comment.

The firm, led by billionaire Paul Singer and Jonathan Pollock, told its clients that “investors should not assume they have ‘seen everything’” because they have been through the peaks and troughs of the 1987 crash, the dot-com boom and the 2008 global financial crisis and previous bear and bull markets.

They added that the “extraordinary” period of cheap money is coming to an end and has “made possible a set of outcomes that would be at or beyond the boundaries of the entire post-WWII period.”

The letter said the world is “on the path to hyperinflation”, which could lead to “global societal collapse and civil or international strife.”

They estimated that markets have not fallen enough yet and equity markets could drop more than 50% would be “normal,” adding that they couldn’t predict when that would happen. The S&P 500 SPX, -1.06% has dropped 19% from its peak at the beginning of the year.

Elliott executives warned clients that the idea that “‘we will not panic because we have seen this before’ does not comport with the current facts.”

They blamed central bank policymakers for the current global economic situation, saying they had been “dishonest” about the reason for high inflation. They said lawmakers had shirked responsibility by blaming it on supply chain disruption caused by the pandemic instead of loose monetary policy imposed two years ago during the COVID-19 peak.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...-lead-to-global-societal-collapse-11667470081

 

[goat]

The “extraordinary” period of cheap money coming to an end should eventually result in deflation. The markets will have to catch up with reality. Demand is not there.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Highly Recommended:

 

[Walt]

There has been a slight disruption in cheap money, but the demographics that caused the global savings glut has not changed. Even the slightly more expensive money we are seeing now would have been called cheap money before we had such cheap money.

10 year Treasurys are still around 4%. That is higher than they have been in a long time... BUT IT IS JUST 4%!!! That is insanely low.

As for hyperinflation, and a global societal collapse, I see no evidence of anything approaching hyperinflation (10,000% or higher). I doubt the USA will even see double digit inflation, much less 5 digit inflation.

That being said, I think the alt right should invest like there will be hyperinflation, and societal collapse. It is not my money.

See what I did there? I had no problem with others following whatever investment strategy they believe in. Got to wonder why the alt right gets so upset that Blackrock offers an investment fund they disagree with. If they think it is a bad investment, they can just not invest in that particular fund.

 

[Earl]

Home mortgage interest rates were at near 2% recently.

They are now over 6%.

Tell us, Walter, is that insanely low?

Also, tell us more about how “no one can be forced to commit a crime,” Walter

 

[Walt]

Home mortgage interest rates were at near 2% recently. They are now over 6%. Tell us, Walter, is that insanely low?

Interest rates were below 3%, not near 2%, because they were always much closer to 3% than to 2%. Yes, under 4% mortgages is insanely low. Treasurys at 4%, with inflation at 8% is also insanely low. 6% is a bit on the low side, but not insanely so.

It is a sign of the times that you think 6% is high. You expect money to be insanely cheap, and are shocked when it is just a bit on the cheap side.

 

[MAGA MAN]

There has been a slight disruption in cheap money, but the demographics that caused the global savings glut has not changed. Even the slightly more expensive money we are seeing now would have been called cheap money before we had such cheap money.

10 year Treasurys are still around 4%. That is higher than they have been in a long time... BUT IT IS JUST 4%!!! That is insanely low.

As for hyperinflation, and a global societal collapse, I see no evidence of anything approaching hyperinflation (10,000% or higher). I doubt the USA will even see double digit inflation, much less 5 digit inflation.

That being said, I think the alt right should invest like there will be hyperinflation, and societal collapse. It is not my money.

See what I did there? I had no problem with others following whatever investment strategy they believe in. Got to wonder why the alt right gets so upset that Blackrock offers an investment fund they disagree with. If they think it is a bad investment, they can just not invest in that particular fund.

Who is this "alt right" that you constantly speak of?

 

[Earl]

Interest rates were below 3%, not near 2%, because they were always much closer to 3% than to 2%. Yes, under 4% mortgages is insanely low. Treasurys at 4%, with inflation at 8% is also insanely low. 6% is a bit on the low side, but not insanely so.

It is a sign of the times that you think 6% is high. You expect money to be insanely cheap, and are shocked when it is just a bit on the cheap side.

Interest rates almost triple, Walter. Triple in a few weeks time.

You are the wee lad whistling past the graveyard, Walter.

And you will not address your post...”no one can be forced to commit a crime,” Walter.

 

[Hawkeye10]

Interest rates were below 3%, not near 2%, because they were always much closer to 3% than to 2%. Yes, under 4% mortgages is insanely low. Treasurys at 4%, with inflation at 8% is also insanely low. 6% is a bit on the low side, but not insanely so.

It is a sign of the times that you think 6% is high. You expect money to be insanely cheap, and are shocked when it is just a bit on the cheap side.

The last runaway inflation took rates over 16% to bring under control, this will almost certainly be worse.

 

[Earl]

As of November 3, 2022, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.25%, the FHA 30-year fixed rate is 7.16%, the VA 30-year fixed rate is 7.18% and the jumbo 30-year fixed rate is 6.02%.

 

[cancel2 2022]

There has been a slight disruption in cheap money, but the demographics that caused the global savings glut has not changed. Even the slightly more expensive money we are seeing now would have been called cheap money before we had such cheap money.

10 year Treasurys are still around 4%. That is higher than they have been in a long time... BUT IT IS JUST 4%!!! That is insanely low.

As for hyperinflation, and a global societal collapse, I see no evidence of anything approaching hyperinflation (10,000% or higher). I doubt the USA will even see double digit inflation, much less 5 digit inflation.

That being said, I think the alt right should invest like there will be hyperinflation, and societal collapse. It is not my money.

See what I did there? I had no problem with others following whatever investment strategy they believe in. Got to wonder why the alt right gets so upset that Blackrock offers an investment fund they disagree with. If they think it is a bad investment, they can just not invest in that particular fund.

Salty you're doing it again, hyperinflation is defined as anything over 50% per month! Why do you always do this?

Inflation is measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to measure the dollar's purchasing power. The CPI is an index of the prices for about 94,000 commodities and services; around 8,000 rental housing unit quotes; and prices for airline fares, apparel, household goods, prescription drugs, used automobiles, and postage.

Generally speaking, the Federal Reserve strives to maintain what it calls a healthy inflation rate of around 2% over the long term.

A rate of inflation higher than 2% is considered high. Hyperinflation is an extreme case of inflation, not just a high inflation rate.

Hyperinflation occurs when prices have risen by more than 50% per month. Daily increases might approach 200% or more when hyperinflation occurs.

For comparative purposes, the U.S. inflation rate measured by the CPI has averaged about 2% per year since 2012, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

For instance, imagine you always buy the same items at the grocery store. If the economy were experiencing a rising inflation rate of 5% per day, your grocery bill might rise from $500 per week to $675 the next week, to $911 per week the following week, and so on.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hyperinflation.asp

 

[Earl]

Where did Walter go?

Oh, those inconvenient questions.

 

[Earl]

Salty you're doing it again, hyperinflation is defined as anything over 50% per month! Why do you always do this?

Inflation is measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to measure the dollar's purchasing power. The CPI is an index of the prices for about 94,000 commodities and services; around 8,000 rental housing unit quotes; and prices for airline fares, apparel, household goods, prescription drugs, used automobiles, and postage.

Generally speaking, the Federal Reserve strives to maintain what it calls a healthy inflation rate of around 2% over the long term.

A rate of inflation higher than 2% is considered high. Hyperinflation is an extreme case of inflation, not just a high inflation rate.

Hyperinflation occurs when prices have risen by more than 50% per month. Daily increases might approach 200% or more when hyperinflation occurs.

For comparative purposes, the U.S. inflation rate measured by the CPI has averaged about 2% per year since 2012, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

For instance, imagine you always buy the same items at the grocery store. If the economy were experiencing a rising inflation rate of 5% per day, your grocery bill might rise from $500 per week to $675 the next week, to $911 per week the following week, and so on.

Indeed.

Walter is now about half way past the center of the cemetery...whistling softly.

Ask poor Walter about his post yesterday...”no one can be forced to commit a crime.”

 

[Walt]

Interest rates almost triple, Walter. Triple in a few weeks time.

In a year, it has doubled... But no it has not tripled in a few weeks. You are blatantly lying.

6% is not high mortgage rates. It is on the low side. Reagan saw interest rates of over 18%, that was a scary high... But America did not collapse.

If we fold to 6% interest rates, we are weak. I do not believe we are that weak.

 

[Earl]

Walter, you need to find a nice store that sells truth and integrity.

In the vernacular of the day, , you need a mierda load .

 

[Walt]

Salty you're doing it again, hyperinflation is defined as anything over 50% per month! Why do you always do this?

50% a month is 12,975% per year. If you take 1.5 exponential 12, you get 12,975%. So hyperinflation is usually stated as either 50% a month, or 10,000% a year. I am sorry you have so much trouble with math.

We have not even seen double digit inflation, and you are talking about 5 digit inflation? Anything is possible, but this seems far fetched to me.

 

[Earl]

In a year, it has doubled... But no it has not tripled in a few weeks. You are blatantly lying.

6% is not high mortgage rates. It is on the low side. Reagan saw interest rates of over 18%, that was a scary high... But America did not collapse.

If we fold to 6% interest rates, we are weak. I do not believe we are that weak.

According to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the interest rate in the first week of January 2022 was as follows: 30-year mortgage: 3.22% 15-year mortgage: 2.43% 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM): 2.41%

That 2.41% rate is nearer to 2% than 3%, Walter.

Your credibility is gone, Walter.

Go buy some.

 

[Earl]

Who is the liar now, Walter?


As of November 3, 2022, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 7.25%, the FHA 30-year fixed rate is 7.16%, the VA 30-year fixed rate is 7.18% and the jumbo 30-year fixed rate is 6.02%.

 

[Earl]

I take it that you are not going to address your post of yesterday, Walter...”no one can be forced to commit a crime.”

I can understand why...Walter.

You need a serious injection of truth, integrity and wisdom, Walter.

You replicate your President, he hasn’t been right on any issue in 40 years either.

 

[Walt]

According to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the interest rate in the first week of January 2022 was as follows

That was nearly a year ago. It was not a "few weeks" ago, as you claim. In the last year, interest rates have doubled. That is bad, but nowhere near as bad as your claim that in a few weeks they have tripled.

The reason interest rates have gone up is because we are getting inflation under control. It is not going to lead to hyperinflation.