Sorry Trumptards, we aren't in a recession

C

Concart

Well-known member
Contributor
Man the car has sure gotten a lot of mileage considering the wheels are about to come off.

BUCKLE UP!!!!

ROTFLMFAO. The stupidity of the Trump Trolls here is only matched by their inability to self reflect and realize how fucking stupid they sound.

Third quarter GDP growth = 2.6%

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/us-...r-than-expected-as-growth-turns-positive.html

Oooops.

Discuss the stupidity of those predicting an economic collapse. Checked my portfolio. It's up AGAIN. Go figure.
 
Concart said:
Man the car has sure gotten a lot of mileage considering the wheels are about to come off.

BUCKLE UP!!!!

ROTFLMFAO. The stupidity of the Trump Trolls here is only matched by their inability to self reflect and realize how fucking stupid they sound.

Third quarter GDP growth = 2.6%

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/us-...r-than-expected-as-growth-turns-positive.html

Oooops.

Discuss the stupidity of those predicting an economic collapse. Checked my portfolio. It's up AGAIN. Go figure.
Click to expand...

You should read your articles first

The growth came in large part due to a narrowing trade deficit, which economists expected and consider to be a one-off occurrence that won’t be repeated in future quarters.
Click to expand...
 
A couple of thoughts.

The most often used definition of a recession is two quarters in a row of negative GDP growth, which we just had. So I don't think that makes anyone stupid for saying we were in a recession. The people stating we weren't in a recession argued that even though we had two quarters of negative GDP growth the underlying data wasn't so bad as to make it a recession.

It's kind of working in reverse here. Even though we had positive GDP growth in the 3rd qtr, a number of economists (including progressive ones) are saying the economy is slowing we will likely be in a recession within the next six to twelve months.

It's understandable why we look at the headline number (GDP growth) but in reality we also have to look deeper into the numbers to see what they are really telling us.


For one example here's the liberal economics writer for the NY Times:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585642581236383748
 
cawacko said:
A couple of thoughts.

The most often used definition of a recession is two quarters in a row of negative GDP growth, which we just had. So I don't think that makes anyone stupid for saying we were in a recession. The people stating we weren't in a recession argued that even though we had two quarters of negative GDP growth the underlying data wasn't so bad as to make it a recession.

It's kind of working in reverse here. Even though we had positive GDP growth in the 3rd qtr, a number of economists (including progressive ones) are saying the economy is slowing we will likely be in a recession within the next six to twelve months.

It's understandable why we look at the headline number (GDP growth) but in reality we also have to look deeper into the numbers to see what they are really telling us.


For one example here's the liberal economics writer for the NY Times:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585642581236383748
Click to expand...

No, it isn't stupid. What IS stupid is the Chicken Little act courtesy of the likes of Celtic and Hawkeye. The truth is that economic fundamentals are very strong. To hear them tell it, we are on the brink of economic collapse and a great depression. Because, you know, Biden.

Is demand slowing? Of course it is. It had to. Demand has fueled inflation, and we WANT it to come down. The question is, how do we land. There is no reason we cannot have at worst a very mild recession. More importantly, I have seen NOTHING in the way of solutions from Republicans. Just complaining and make these idiotic hyperbolic claims about the economy that, without putting a fine point to it, is a fabrication.

What is ironic is that they will blame Biden for demand slowing. When that's what they want. They are just to ignorant of economic principles to understand it.
 
Concart said:
So what? You claim the wheels are coming off, because you have NO CLUE about economics. You should stay in your lane, and talk about stolen elections and scary brown people.
Click to expand...

And you pin your hopes on a one off aberration.

You live in a room full of 800lb gorillas and chose to only see the bug in the corner and you think I know nothing about economics ? Pathetic...
 
Trump hollered 23 months ago that if Biden became prez he would cause a massive economic depression.

Exactly when is this depression supposed to start?
 
Concart said:
No, it isn't stupid. What IS stupid is the Chicken Little act courtesy of the likes of Celtic and Hawkeye. The truth is that economic fundamentals are very strong. To hear them tell it, we are on the brink of economic collapse and a great depression. Because, you know, Biden.

Is demand slowing? Of course it is. It had to. Demand has fueled inflation, and we WANT it to come down. The question is, how do we land. There is no reason we cannot have at worst a very mild recession. More importantly, I have seen NOTHING in the way of solutions from Republicans. Just complaining and make these idiotic hyperbolic claims about the economy that, without putting a fine point to it, is a fabrication.

What is ironic is that they will blame Biden for demand slowing. When that's what they want. They are just to ignorant of economic principles to understand it.
Click to expand...

It's hard to have real economic discussions on a board like this because of the overwhelming partisan nature and tribalism of the posters.

But I would strongly disagree with the idea that economic fundamentals are very strong right now. We have high inflation, rising interest rates, rising mortgage rates, consumer spending slowing, we still have positive job growth but is slowing as well and we could go on. The stock market isn't the economy but it's obviously down as well. There is more and more talk of a coming recession. You don't have all that in a period of economic fundamentals being strong.
 
cawacko said:
It's hard to have real economic discussions on a board like this because of the overwhelming partisan nature and tribalism of the posters.

But I would strongly disagree with the idea that economic fundamentals are very strong right now. We have high inflation, rising interest rates, rising mortgage rates, consumer spending slowing, we still have positive job growth but is slowing as well and we could go on. The stock market isn't the economy but it's obviously down as well. There is more and more talk of a coming recession. You don't have all that in a period of economic fundamentals being strong.
Click to expand...

Interest rates aren't historically high, or even close to it. Hell, in 1996 a 30 year fixed was eight percent and no one batted an eye. Consumer spending HAD to slow, it was and is causing inflation, which is almost certainly coming down. And despite all that, we are not seeing ANY job losses, and we are seeing wage gains. So what seems to be happening is that we are returning to a more 'normal' economic cycle without the wild swings of the past couple of years. We are certainly not facing anything like 2008. To the contrary, we are seeing job gains. We are reducing yearly deficits by a huge amount. A mild recession doesn't mean that fundamentals are not strong. Recessions are inevitable. The idea is to mitigate the peaks and valleys, and it appears to me that's exactly what we are doing.

In actuality, the four things you cited are not separate, they are basically the same thing. Higher interest rates.
 
Celticguy said:
And you pin your hopes on a one off aberration.

You live in a room full of 800lb gorillas and chose to only see the bug in the corner and you think I know nothing about economics ? Pathetic...
Click to expand...

Ironic. Enough said. You seriously need to to gain a much better understanding of economics before you come here and start your idiotic threads.
 
Concart said:
Man the car has sure gotten a lot of mileage considering the wheels are about to come off.

BUCKLE UP!!!!

ROTFLMFAO. The stupidity of the Trump Trolls here is only matched by their inability to self reflect and realize how fucking stupid they sound.

Third quarter GDP growth = 2.6%

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/us-...r-than-expected-as-growth-turns-positive.html

Oooops.

Discuss the stupidity of those predicting an economic collapse. Checked my portfolio. It's up AGAIN. Go figure.
Click to expand...

You are a genius.
 
Concart said:
Man the car has sure gotten a lot of mileage considering the wheels are about to come off.

BUCKLE UP!!!!

ROTFLMFAO. The stupidity of the Trump Trolls here is only matched by their inability to self reflect and realize how fucking stupid they sound.

Third quarter GDP growth = 2.6%

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/us-...r-than-expected-as-growth-turns-positive.html

Oooops.

Discuss the stupidity of those predicting an economic collapse. Checked my portfolio. It's up AGAIN. Go figure.
Click to expand...

You got life hella fucked up.
 
Concart said:
Interest rates aren't historically high, or even close to it. Hell, in 1996 a 30 year fixed was eight percent and no one batted an eye. Consumer spending HAD to slow, it was and is causing inflation, which is almost certainly coming down. And despite all that, we are not seeing ANY job losses, and we are seeing wage gains. So what seems to be happening is that we are returning to a more 'normal' economic cycle without the wild swings of the past couple of years. We are certainly not facing anything like 2008. To the contrary, we are seeing job gains. We are reducing yearly deficits by a huge amount. A mild recession doesn't mean that fundamentals are not strong. Recessions are inevitable. The idea is to mitigate the peaks and valleys, and it appears to me that's exactly what we are doing.

In actuality, the four things you cited are not separate, they are basically the same thing. Higher interest rates.
Click to expand...

The argument has always been that jobs are a lagging indicator. So the fact that we haven't seen much of an increase in the unemployment rate doesn't necessarily mean economic fundamentals are strong. And I'm aware that interest rates have been historically higher so that's why I said we have rising interest rates, the Fed is obviously doing it to try and slow down inflation and economic growth. Their goal is clearly to achieve a soft landing. The number of people who think they can is shrinking but it can't be ruled out.
 
It's amusing to watch the liberals adopt conservative values and outlooks on the economy now. People could be dying of starvation due to inflation and the liberals would blame their deaths on making bad choices because we aren't in a recession
 
Concart said:
Man the car has sure gotten a lot of mileage considering the wheels are about to come off.

BUCKLE UP!!!!

ROTFLMFAO. The stupidity of the Trump Trolls here is only matched by their inability to self reflect and realize how fucking stupid they sound.

Third quarter GDP growth = 2.6%

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/us-...r-than-expected-as-growth-turns-positive.html

Oooops.

Discuss the stupidity of those predicting an economic collapse. Checked my portfolio. It's up AGAIN. Go figure.
Click to expand...

Oh, no. Republicans are in mourning. All they want to do is tear this country down and rebuild it in Hitler's image.

Leave them alone :)
 
Celticguy said:
And you pin your hopes on a one off aberration.

You live in a room full of 800lb gorillas and chose to only see the bug in the corner and you think I know nothing about economics ? Pathetic...
Click to expand...

And you're one of those gorillas.
 
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