Why the Fed won't be able to avoid a recession or bring inflation down to 2%

Primavera said:
How much of that was spending on Covid?
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So much of the so called COVID spending was not actually spent on anything remotely COVID related.....these are vast slush funds which are spent on the priorities of the Elites...to include the paying off of friends.
 
This is a great place to talk about how some government programs to include some of the COVID programs are estimated to have something like a 20% fraud rate, but just about nobody talks about it, or cares.
 
Celticguy said:
we're already in recession so the question is when we might wiggle out of it. That will take some time. Longer as Biden seems quite determined to write checks he hasnt the money for.

The Fed certainly CAN get inflation back down its just going to hurt and hurt worse because Biden wont stop spending money he doesnt have.

Blackrock wants to abamdon QT and return to QE simply because they dont want to contract now that they own a piece of everything. Its bad for business and they engineered their business to specifically take advantage of QE. Too bad for them.

We lost any hope of a soft landing when Joe was tossing around trillions like it was penny candy.

Free stuff isnt free and we all get to pay for it for the next few years.

With any luck Congress gets gridlocked for a coulpe years and Trump rolls into town to resume his boomer economy and make America great again.
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Spending has nothing to do with it. The Fed was powerless to address supply issues. Raising rates might cut demand for housing, but little else.

I love the rate hikes. Bonds are paying again, and the real stock market will eventually show its face now that the Feds stopped pumping trillions into it.
 
LV426 said:
All oil is bought and sold on the global market, and the only oil "we" own is what is in the strategic reserve.

Everything else belongs to private, multinational oil companies who sell it to the highest bidder.
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Only when Wall St. gives them permission
 
Hawkeye10 said:
This is a great place to talk about how some government programs to include some of the COVID programs are estimated to have something like a 20% fraud rate, but just about nobody talks about it, or cares.
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Same story in the UK, many billions embezzled by fraudsters. We now know that the Great Barrington Declaration was the right approach but it was never really tried apart from the likes of Sweden and Holland

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...y-criminals-stolen-37BILLION-Covid-money.html
 
SmarterthanYou said:
and you think I should go and demand a raise from my boss ROFL!!!!!!!!!!!!!

again, tell me you know shit about economics without telling me you know shit about economics
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In the business world, Trump’s debt is reasonable. The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio at the end of 2020 was 129%. That’s the $27.8 trillion U.S. debt as of December 2020 divided by the $21.5 trillion nominal GDP.
 
Celticguy said:
we're already in recession so the question is when we might wiggle out of it. That will take some time. Longer as Biden seems quite determined to write checks he hasnt the money for.

The Fed certainly CAN get inflation back down its just going to hurt and hurt worse because Biden wont stop spending money he doesnt have.

Blackrock wants to abamdon QT and return to QE simply because they dont want to contract now that they own a piece of everything. Its bad for business and they engineered their business to specifically take advantage of QE. Too bad for them.

We lost any hope of a soft landing when Joe was tossing around trillions like it was penny candy.

Free stuff isnt free and we all get to pay for it for the next few years.

With any luck Congress gets gridlocked for a coulpe years and Trump rolls into town to resume his boomer economy and make America great again.
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With any luck- Trump will DROP DEAD and his ass grows together!!
 
Primavera said:
Same story in the UK, many billions embezzled by fraudsters. We now know that the Great Barrington Declaration was the right approach but it was never really tried apart from the likes of Sweden and Holland

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...y-criminals-stolen-37BILLION-Covid-money.html
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The Failed Elite Class in America basically does not give a fuck about doing things right, they suffer from "Who cares, it will all work out" Hubris.

Is it the same with you brits?
 
Guille said:
No, it's part of the "you're a fucking moron for not understanding supply and demand" speech.
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Oh ok so when a bottle of water is $5 during a hurricane we won't get you whine like the little bitch you are that it's price gouging. You fucking idiot
 
Primavera said:
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Don't say you weren't warned!

The Fed may not be able to avoid a recession – and may not be able to bring inflation down to its 2% target either, according to BlackRock.

"The Fed will be surprised by the growth damage caused by its tightening," analysts said in a note on Tuesday.

The bank's analysts think a recession could come in early 2023, likely before inflation is down to 2%.

Markets are expecting the Fed to stick to aggressive rate hikes after Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole last month.

But higher rates won't solve the biggest problem, namely low production capacity, analysts said, meaning low supply relative to demand. Without addressing supply, the Fed would have to lower demand by 2% via rate hikes to get inflation down quickly.

"The Fed will be surprised by the growth damage caused by its tightening, in our view," analysts said in a note on Tuesday. "When the Fed sees this pain, we think it will stop raising rates. It will be too late to avoid a contraction in economic activity by then, we think, but the decrease won't be deep enough to bring PCE inflation down to the Fed's target of 2%. Instead, we expect inflation to persist close to 3%."

https://markets.businessinsider.com...lation-target-economy-growth-blackrock-2022-9
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Indeed.

Two (2) bond yield inversions.
 
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