I don't dismiss that we face some economic risks, presumably that is why the Fed is being aggressive.
Lessons learned from the Nixon era of stagflation. This why I believe in a mixture of Keynesian and Monetarist economic policy instead of the Supply Side Voodoo Economics or Bernie Brothers brand of socialism (though I do willingly admit there are times and situations where socialism is warranted.).
It is indeed an odd situation. Inflation is cutting into standards of living and GDP Growth has declined for two consecutive fiscal quarters which is the technical definition of a short term recession.
Yet unemployment is low and new hiring and wage growth have increased. Corporations are making increased profits but volatility has hit stocks hard.
My anecdotal observation is that small businesses are taking it in the ass. Particularly in the service sector where times have been rough.
Yet the corporate world seems to being well. I received a significant pay raise at the start of the year and a promotion, in which that opportunity became available due to business growth, not to mention my annual bonus was almost double what I normally receive. The misses earned a substantial raise too.
My stock portfolio went south but the increase in my house valuation offset that loss entirely. In addition I’m still working from home so gasoline inflation has had a very minor impact on my cost of living.
As you said it’s a really odd situation but my guess is we will more than likely see a recovery in GDP growth and we have seen some evidence that a decline in inflation has started. To early to tell yet. It’s really confusing as seeing solid improvement in some metrics and significant declines in others shouldn’t be happening at the same time.
I think we’re seeing a long term readjustment on investing in manufacturing and trade as a lot of businesses have learned the hard way what the risks of overextending your supply chain and logistics. As each month goes by we’re seeing a gradual improvement from the post COVID Supply chain mess. Though that may take longer than we would like the fact that it’s forcing economic investment at home will be worth the pain.
But yea…odd, odd, odd.