Recession?

Geeko Sportivo said:
No- I am not wealthy!

I have lived 70 years of watching both good and bad economic times, and trust me- I have been a victim and benefactor to many of them.

Economies eventually work their way through all Bad economic times. There are millions of factors and dynamics that have to do with how good or how bad an economy can be.

It's not a switch a president has- he can flick to fix a bad economic time- it often times is not even a switch at the voters booth that fixes bad economies.

Sometimes- it is patience- Sometimes it's perseverance- sometimes it's making the right decisions for you and your family- SOMETIMES IT'S JUST BLIND LUCK!

But Pointing fingers does not help economies. Remaining disgruntled over losing an election doesn't help anything! Constantly blaming your political rivals doesn't resolve anything!

Now again- Tell us what you would do to help resolve the inflation problems we are experiencing!

Let me assure you- You want influence with others?- STOP THE FINGER-POINTING AND TELL US WHAT YOU WOULD DO TO HELP RESOLVE ISSUES.

Constantly nagging about your political adversaries is just politics as usual. Political fights end up as Farting contests!

You want a farting contest! Go ahead- You go first! Let's see how our farting contest helps our economy!
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Repeal all of the Executive Orders made on 1/20/2017, that would be a good start. Not a 1 does anything good for Americans.
 
Matt Dillon said:
Repeal all of the Executive Orders made on 1/20/2017, that would be a good start. Not a 1 does anything good for Americans.
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Name one that is affecting you negatively and personally and tell us how!

We get it- YOU HATE BIDEN!

This is just more politically motivated hatespeak.
 
cawacko said:
Cassleman is a liberal economist for The NY Times. He references the Atl Fed number which did in fact turn negative. This would be two quarters in a row of negative GDP growth which usually, but not always, is the measure for a recession.

Because unemployment is still pretty low this recession, if official, does have a different feel to it. Unemployment is expected to rise but at least as projected not tremendously higher.


https://twitter.com/x/status/1542507545482231810
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We have not had a second quarter of negative growth as of yet. It's possible that we will, but this entire 'recession' is not normal in any way. It's so much driven by supply issues. I do think we are about to overcorrect on inflation and may see a mild recession, but I don't think it's inevitable. Much of the gloom and doom is coming from either a) people who will benefit from a recession or b) people that have absolutely no understanding of economics. I don't necessarily think negative GDP is a good measure because it followed a year of massive GDP growth, with three of the four quarters at over 6% annualized. The slowdown was due more to Covid money running out and a significant spike in the Omicron variant. I don't see this as a normal cyclical downturn.
 
Concart said:
We have not had a second quarter of negative growth as of yet. It's possible that we will, but this entire 'recession' is not normal in any way. It's so much driven by supply issues. I do think we are about to overcorrect on inflation and may see a mild recession, but I don't think it's inevitable. Much of the gloom and doom is coming from either a) people who will benefit from a recession or b) people that have absolutely no understanding of economics. I don't necessarily think negative GDP is a good measure because it followed a year of massive GDP growth, with three of the four quarters at over 6% annualized. The slowdown was due more to Covid money running out and a significant spike in the Omicron variant. I don't see this as a normal cyclical downturn.
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I don’t think we’ve ever experienced anything like this. WWII comes to mind where major parts of the economy shut down to focus on the war effort, and totally distorted GDP, but that still wasn’t like what we’ve gone through now.

The combination of essentially a total shut down and then reopening along with massive fiscal and monetary stimulus and everything is out of wack. The AtlantaFed is now projecting -2.1% GDP growth for Q2 but we’ll see what the final numbers say.

Things just feel off with negative GDP and a bear market and massive inflation but a still very low unemployment rate. You don’t usually associate a low unemployment rate with the previous conditions. (Unemployment rate will rise, that’s inevitable with the Fed’s actions but projections aren’t for it to go up exponentially.).

Strange times
 
The AtlantaFed is now projecting -2.1% GDP growth for Q2 but we’ll see what the final numbers say.

Things just feel off with negative GDP and a bear market and massive inflation but a still very low unemployment rate
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that Atlanta Fed number keeps declining -doubt we dodge a recession

Those UE numbers are quirky - so many people out of work but aren't "looking"

It's a contracting economy with increasing reliance on imports is doing it, that and the yuge stimuleses
 
cawacko said:
Cassleman is a liberal economist for The NY Times. He references the Atl Fed number which did in fact turn negative. This would be two quarters in a row of negative GDP growth which usually, but not always, is the measure for a recession.

Because unemployment is still pretty low this recession, if official, does have a different feel to it. Unemployment is expected to rise but at least as projected not tremendously higher.


https://twitter.com/x/status/1542507545482231810
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There are NEARLY SEVEN MILLION FEWER PEOPLE IN THE WORKFORCE, SINCE TRUMP.

"LOW UNEMPLOYMENT" = is BULLSHIT, at this point.
 
anatta said:
that Atlanta Fed number keeps declining -doubt we dodge a recession

Those UE numbers are quirky - so many people out of work but aren't "looking"

It's a contracting economy with increasing reliance on imports is doing it, that and the yuge stimuleses
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Contracting economy="recession".
 
Geeko Sportivo said:
Where did I imply that?

Get you a little Butt salve- and you'll get over your main problem SOUR PUSS!

Wasn't it Chicken Little that cried- "THE SKY IS FALLING- THE SKY IS FALLING"?

Well Chicken Little?

There is more to recession, in my opinion- THAN JUST GDP CHARTS.

I define a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."

Obama inherited a recession from Bush II that began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009, according to NBER, the longest economic downturn since World War II.

Under that Reagan-to-Trump timeline, the Republican presidencies had four recessions start in their terms: one each under Reagan and George H. W. Bush, and two under George W. Bush. By contrast, Democrats Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had zero.

With the economic downturn created by the coronavirus pandemic, a recession is likely to be declared after the latest GDP data is released, sometime in July. We may be in one now, but it has not been deemed official.

Digging through the historical record, every Republican president since Chester A. Arthur (1881-85) had a recession during his administration.

Democratic presidents since Reagan: The Clinton administration posted 7.5% GDP growth in the second quarter of 2000 and averaged 3.7% over eight years.

Of the post-World War II presidents, only Truman, at 4.8%, Kennedy at 5.2% and Johnson at 5.1% scored higher average growth rates. By contrast, Reagan averaged 3.5%, Carter 3.3%, Nixon 3.1%, Bush I and Ford 2.2% and Bush II 1.65%.

The Obama administration posted a modest 2% growth over eight years, after inheriting the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression from the George W. Bush years, with the U.S. losing nearly 800,000 jobs a month.

During Obama's two terms, the economy added jobs for 75 straight months and ended with the highest level of household income ever recorded.

DO I NEED TO GO ON?- Because I have a lot more comparisons to make- BASED ON PURE AMERICAN HISTORICAL FACTS!

Well- CHICKEN LITTLE?
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You're truly away with the fairies!
 
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