Does Vlad intimidate you?

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Cypress

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Latvian foreign minister says European leaders should not fear provoking Putin and must not push Ukraine to make concessions

Washington(CNN)Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs on Wednesday said European leaders must not be deterred by a fear of provoking Russian President Vladimir Putin and the international community must not pressure Ukraine into making concessions to end the war.

Although Rinkēvičs did not name names in his critique of European leaders who he says maintain a "fear" of vexing Putin, he told CNN he was referencing "those who are well-known from time to time openly saying that they don't want to see him humiliated or that we need to provide some off-ramp" -- a seeming swipe at French President Emmanuel Macron, who in early June said "we must not humiliate Russia so that the day when the fighting stops we can build an exit ramp through diplomatic means."

Rinkēvičs said such an approach is "not rational," telling CNN that the "mentality in many of the capitals needs to be changed." He also noted that diplomatic outreach by world leaders to Putin in an attempt to get him to end the war had not yielded results, and said he believed the Russians "can be stopped only by Ukrainians, only by them fighting."
 
If I were in Putin's shoes, I would just maintain this frozen conflict for two and a half more years, and hope that Trump will become president again. There is good reason to believe Trump will stop supplying Ukraine with weapons and try to coerce them into ceding territory to Putin.
 
Cypress said:
If I were in Putin's shoes, I would just maintain this frozen conflict for two and a half more years, and hope that Trump will become president again. There is good reason to believe Trump will stop supplying Ukraine with weapons and try to coerce them into ceding territory to Putin.
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Why Obama/Biden * sent blankets and Trump sent Javelin missiles..

* Obama put VDP Biden in charge of Ukraine.
 
Cypress said:
If I were in Putin's shoes, I would just maintain this frozen conflict for two and a half more years, and hope that Trump will become president again. There is good reason to believe Trump will stop supplying Ukraine with weapons and try to coerce them into ceding territory to Putin.
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21/2 years? lol.. and it's not "frozen" - although it's a slog
 
dukkha said:
didnt see that.. OK..I doubt Ukraine can hold out that long, but with no peace talks..?
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I think with western support, Ukraine can hold out as long as they are willing to fight. The people in that part of Europe tend to have more fortitude and tenacity, than soft and untested Americans. You actually had a lot of Americans on this board saying Ukraine should surrender and submit within the first few days of the invasion.

. Putin cannot afford to lose. I do think part of his calculation could be to wait it out in the hopes Trump comes back as president.
 
Cypress said:
I think with western support, Ukraine can hold out as long as they are willing to fight. The people in that part of Europe tend to have more fortitude and tenacity, than soft and untested Americans. You actually had a lot of Americans on this board saying Ukraine should surrender and submit within the first few days of the invasion.

. Putin cannot afford to lose. I do think part of his calculation could be to wait it out in the hopes Trump comes back as president.
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Putin operates independent of any hope for Trump - this constant tying Trump to Putin is Russian Hoax leftovers.

those promised weapons arent going to spark a counter attack or "inflection point" as the new meme goes

2 1/2 years is strictly a war of attrition, and Russia wins Donbas by that calculus
 
dukkha said:
Putin operates independent of any hope for Trump - this constant tying Trump to Putin is Russian Hoax leftovers.

those promised weapons arent going to spark a counter attack or "inflection point" as the new meme goes

2 1/2 years is strictly a war of attrition, and Russia wins Donbas by that calculus
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Americans have the historical awareness of mice, and our vision generally extends out only three to six months.

Putin is steeped in history, as his writings on Ukraine make clear. His vision extends back hundreds of years, well beyond the founding of NATO, and is informed by an affinity for Russian imperialism and nationalism. It's no accident Putin is fond of invoking Peter the Great's vision of a unified Holy Russia comprised of all the East Slavic peoples.

In my mind, I have little doubt that Putin has considered the contingencies and benefits of holding out for a return to power of Trump in the context of a frozen or stalemated conflict in Ukraine.
 
Cypress said:
Americans have the historical awareness of mice, and our vision generally extends out only three to six months.

Putin is steeped in history, as his writings on Ukraine make clear. His vision extends back hundreds of years, well beyond the founding of NATO, and is informed by an affinity for Russian imperialism and nationalism. It's no accident Putin is fond of invoking Peter the Great's vision of a unified Holy Russia comprised of all the East Slavic peoples.

In my mind, I have little doubt that Putin has considered the contingencies and benefits of holding out for a return to power of Trump in the context of a frozen or stalemated conflict in Ukraine.
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There isn't even any guaratee Trump will run, or win the nomination, or POTUS
that's a lot of "ifs" for Putin to make war policy upon.

I agree about a stalemate - that's an effective buffer for Russia - and China oil buys keep the economy going
I just wonder how long Ukraine can hold out ( why I questioned the 2 1/2 years) in terms of having casualties
 
Cypress said:
If I were in Putin's shoes, I would just maintain this frozen conflict for two and a half more years, and hope that Trump will become president again. There is good reason to believe Trump will stop supplying Ukraine with weapons and try to coerce them into ceding territory to Putin.
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He may want to do so, but I doubt Putin can last that long. How many Russian conscripts are going home in body bags this month?
 
Dutch Uncle said:
He may want to do so, but I doubt Putin can last that long. How many Russian conscripts are going home in body bags this month?
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Supposedly, as long as Putin avoids mass mobilization and conscription, the burden of this war won't really be felt by people in Moscow, Saint Petersburg, the large urban areas. Putin is still trying to fight with Russia's peacetime professional army, which seems to be largely composed of rural Russians from economically distressed backwaters, and ethnic minorities from the autonomous republics, aka Chechens, Buryats, Tartars, etc.

Putin is probably keen to try to win without calling for a mass mobilization and putting the nation on a war time footing.

America was largely insulated from the consequences of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan because we only asked a small segment of society to sacrifice for it.

Reliable information on casualties are hard to come by, but the Russian's overwhelming advantage in artillery makes them hard to outright defeat on the field of battle.
 
Cypress said:
Supposedly, as long as Putin avoids mass mobilization and conscription, the burden of this war won't really be felt by people in Moscow, Saint Petersburg, the large urban areas. Putin is still trying to fight with Russia's peacetime professional army, which seems to be largely composed of rural Russians from economically distressed backwaters, and ethnic minorities from the autonomous republics, aka Chechens, Buryats, Tartars, etc.

Putin is probably keen to try to win without calling for a mass mobilization and putting the nation on a war time footing.

America was largely insulated from the consequences of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan because we only asked a small segment of society to sacrifice for it.

Reliable information on casualties are hard to come by, but the Russian's overwhelming advantage in artillery makes them hard to outright defeat on the field of battle.
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Running a war on a shoe string is a sure way to take consistent losses. It's not just a matter of combat casualties, but operational casualties like truck convoys to Ukraine in winter regardless of weather conditions or the fact that young men with high powered weapons and high performance machines is a recipe for accidents. As for the "War at Home", how are the sanctions affecting them?

Consider the US casualties in Iraq where our people are much better trained and all volunteers. About 20% of all US casualties were non-hostile deaths. Considering the climatic conditions plus the poor leadership, poor training and poor equipment Putin and the Oligarchs have given the Russian Army, I expect their deaths to higher simply due to the conditions.

https://www.defense.gov/casualty.pdf

Total 4,418, Hostile deaths 3,481, Non-Hostile deaths 937, Wounded 31,994
 
Dutch Uncle said:
Running a war on a shoe string is a sure way to take consistent losses. It's not just a matter of combat casualties, but operational casualties like truck convoys to Ukraine in winter regardless of weather conditions or the fact that young men with high powered weapons and high performance machines is a recipe for accidents. As for the "War at Home", how are the sanctions affecting them?

Consider the US casualties in Iraq where our people are much better trained and all volunteers. About 20% of all US casualties were non-hostile deaths. Considering the climatic conditions plus the poor leadership, poor training and poor equipment Putin and the Oligarchs have given the Russian Army, I expect their deaths to higher simply due to the conditions.

https://www.defense.gov/casualty.pdf

Total 4,418, Hostile deaths 3,481, Non-Hostile deaths 937, Wounded 31,994
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I am seeing reporting in Russian language media that some military recruiting offices in Russia are getting fire bombed.
 
Cypress said:
I am seeing reporting in Russian language media that some military recruiting offices in Russia are getting fire bombed.
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A good indication of social dissent. How Putin reacts will, IMO, be typically unenlightened; the same iron fist of reprisals he's known to favor.

In this case, the Russians will start fighting back and finally Putin will implode. I'm guessing within the two years initially mentioned. Certainly there will be signs along the way.

Putin's health issues are good for Russians.
 
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